With only the comfort zone, Dems will need a sweep in both 2026 and 2028 for a full Senate majority

[Empress Beatrix]

Their comfort zone is the Biden 2020 states plus North Carolina

If they hold the rest and pick up ME and NC, they only get to 49 in 2026

If they do that, hold the rest in 2028, and pick up WI and NC they get to 51

There is zero room for error unless they start winning outside of their comfort zone.

[Existing in the context]

I mean people said that in 2005 and 2017 and they ended up getting it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I mean people said that in 2005 and 2017 and they ended up getting it.

Even in those cycles there was a bit more nuance because of ticket splitting. Today, they either need a clean sweep of the conventionally blue states + swing states (with potential for a screw up for a tie in 2028) or have to win in a double-digit Trump state. There’s no other option.

[Empress Beatrix]

I mean people said that in 2005 and 2017 and they ended up getting it.

They had a larger and more diverse “comfort zone” back then, along with ticket splitting for states like Montana and West Virginia which are now gone.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Indeed, but a bad enough environment for Republicans in 2026 could potentially give Democrats one of the reach seats.

I say this because if Trump had been President in 2022, for instance, Johnson certainly goes down, Budd too probably, and McMullin or Ryan possibly pull off an upset.

And you bet your ass that Democrats are going to at least try and run the table on offense in hopes of getting at least that one upset in 2026. Ideally more to pad a future majority.

I'm not saying it's a certainty, but it is necessary to try.

[Existing in the context]

I mean people said that in 2005 and 2017 and they ended up getting it.

They had a larger and more diverse “comfort zone” back then, along with ticket splitting for states like Montana and West Virginia which are now gone.

We literally said that back in 2017 that Democrats missed a lot of gettable seats the year before. Nobody thought they would sweep both seats in AZ and GA. Like you said they have a path now and partisanship can only carry a flawed candidate by so much. If Democrats win in 2028 then odds are they have the senate.

[Vosem]

I mean people said that in 2005 and 2017 and they ended up getting it.

In 2005, Democrats ended up expanding the map. In 2017 they sort of didn't, but they got extremely lucky with multiple bites at the pie (two of their gains in 2020 were special elections in seats that shouldn't have been voting that cycle at all). Both times they also held more "legacy red seats": today they hold no Senate seats in double-digit Republican states, while before this cycle Tester/Brown/Manchin were all still incumbents.

My guess is that Democrats will either expand the map, like in 2006, or fail to take the Senate. I think there are hints from the 2024 results -- especially the Osborn/Fischer race -- that expanding the map is actually a doable thing and polarization is generally falling.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We only need 50 seats plus the VP so we don't need 4 only 3