Any chance the House flips before the midterms via special elections?

[President Johnson]

The current House is closely divided with Republicans just holding 220 seats to Democrats' 215. Do Democrat have any shot to retake the chamber before the midterms even roll around due to special elections? This happened during the second half of Herbert Hoover's term in 1931, when Democrats took control and elected John Nance Garner as speaker.

Trump already nominated sitting House members for posts in his administration, even though they're from red districts.

[Progressive Pessimist]

There's a non-zero chance, but still closer to zero than anything higher given the already limited amount of swing districts.

[Pericles]

Maybe that plus an opportunistic party switch. Defections are pretty rare and are more common going to Republicans, but it will likely be apparent that Republicans are heading back to the minority.

[Duke of York]

its certainly possible. The last time it happened was 1931.

[Devils30]

Maybe that plus an opportunistic party switch. Defections are pretty rare and are more common going to Republicans, but it will likely be apparent that Republicans are heading back to the minority.

Yeah, you really would need these three things for it. The odds of all 3 happening are low but you never know:

1) Mike Turner resigns in OH-10, Dems flip it in a special. This is quite possible considering its Trump+5/Brown +1 and Turner is losing influence.
2) Dems win a sleeper version of 2018 PA-18. Think some random Trump +15 seat in midwest, probably unclear at the moment.
3) Party switch. My top candidate would be Fitzpatrick in PA-1.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems unlikely, imho. There's not that many low hanging fruit for Dems to win in the current climate. Maybe we're getting closer to a 1 or 2 seat majority during the summer of 2026, when the climate is different. I suppose it takes at least 6-9 months for Trump/the GOP to lose momentum.

[Vosem]

There is a third way this might happen besides special elections and party-flips, which is just resignations: in the 2020s Republicans have been much likelier to just quit Congress altogether, and pursue a different career, than Democrats have been. Depending on the timings of vacancies and special elections, Jeffries might have a tiny majority at some point.

Otherwise, yeah, given the improved Democratic performances at special elections and the tiny margin it's not at all implausible. I think doing this through party flips might backfire in the court of public opinion, but there are definitely a few Republicans in the caucus for whom I could imagine the flip becoming tempting.

[Stranger in a strange land]

There is a third way this might happen besides special elections and party-flips, which is just resignations: in the 2020s Republicans have been much likelier to just quit Congress altogether, and pursue a different career, than Democrats have been. Depending on the timings of vacancies and special elections, Jeffries might have a tiny majority at some point.

Otherwise, yeah, given the improved Democratic performances at special elections and the tiny margin it's not at all implausible. I think doing this through party flips might backfire in the court of public opinion, but there are definitely a few Republicans in the caucus for whom I could imagine the flip becoming tempting.

I doubt anyone would quit congress before their term is up if it would flip control of the chamber. At least not pending the election of a successor.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The H is gonna flip based on MI and PA, NY and CA not based on the FL districts so case closed H isn't flipping until 26, but never say never we need a DH to block the tax cuts

We have two S seats but we need 4

[Minnesota Mike]

I never say never but it would be extremely unlikely. It would take multiple vacancies in Republican held swing seats and for Democrats to win all the specials.

[Duke of York]

I never say never but it would be extremely unlikely. It would take multiple vacancies in Republican held swing seats and for Democrats to win all the specials.

its happened before. last time in occurred was 1931.

[Vosem]

There is a third way this might happen besides special elections and party-flips, which is just resignations: in the 2020s Republicans have been much likelier to just quit Congress altogether, and pursue a different career, than Democrats have been. Depending on the timings of vacancies and special elections, Jeffries might have a tiny majority at some point.

Otherwise, yeah, given the improved Democratic performances at special elections and the tiny margin it's not at all implausible. I think doing this through party flips might backfire in the court of public opinion, but there are definitely a few Republicans in the caucus for whom I could imagine the flip becoming tempting.

I doubt anyone would quit congress before their term is up if it would flip control of the chamber. At least not pending the election of a successor.

You think Spartz wouldn't? And in the last Congress, Buck and Gallagher both quit theatrically and out of nowhere after reaching a personal limit of how much congressional dysfunction they could handle. (Also, many members of Congress are very old; sometimes old people die unexpectedly). I think the possibility of Jeffries taking over because there are lots of vacancies, rather than because of Democratic victories in special elections or because of party-switchers, is underrated. In the last Congress at their lowest point (between April 20-24, 2024, and again from May 6-June 3, 2024), Republicans were down 5 members while Democrats had a full complement of representatives (so a House which had been elected 222-213 was actually 217-213); if something like that happens this time around, then that's enough to get to a tie before you even discuss any special elections.

(I'm cheating a little bit because Suozzi, who of course did pick up a Republican seat, is included in that count of 213. Both times a single original Democratic seat -- either that of Brian Higgins (D-NY) or that of Donald Payne, Jr. (D-NJ) -- was vacant in addition to the many Republican vacancies. But my point still stands. It's also easier for me to imagine some incumbent Republicans dissatisfied with the policies this House pursues resigning for political reasons, as opposed to the last House where everyone was basically united by opposition to Biden.)

[Minnesota Mike]

I never say never but it would be extremely unlikely. It would take multiple vacancies in Republican held swing seats and for Democrats to win all the specials.

its happened before. last time in occurred was 1931.

It aint 1931.

[Duke of York]

I never say never but it would be extremely unlikely. It would take multiple vacancies in Republican held swing seats and for Democrats to win all the specials.

its happened before. last time in occurred was 1931.

It aint 1931.

yes but with such a small margin it can't be ruled out.

[Vosem]

I never say never but it would be extremely unlikely. It would take multiple vacancies in Republican held swing seats and for Democrats to win all the specials.

its happened before. last time in occurred was 1931.

It aint 1931.

2023 saw the first multi-ballot Speakership election since 1923!

[Samof94]

I never say never but it would be extremely unlikely. It would take multiple vacancies in Republican held swing seats and for Democrats to win all the specials.

its happened before. last time in occurred was 1931.

It aint 1931.

Hoover the man was the Jimmy Carter of his time(not a bad person, but the wrong person in the wrong epoch) and he even lived decades after being President.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Possible but unlikely.