Why was McCormick a much stronger candidate than Oz?

[riverwalk7]

During the 2022 PA primaries, I remember that the conventional wisdom was that both Oz and McCormick could win the general. However, Oz had favorabilities that were stuck in the 30s for his whole campaign, while McCormick had a net positive favorability from the get-go.

[philly09]

He wasn't, it's just that Casey ran a nonexistent campaign after Labor Day.

[Pericles]

Oz was an inauthentic clown, McCormick avoided going viral with his liabilities.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Because Fetterman ran in a midterm and was carried by Shapiro and Casey ran in the Prez campaign and lost due to Harris and Walz as my signature states inelasticity is more present in midterms than in Prez races now it used to be reverse. Where Ds lost a bunch of seats in Midterms

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

He wasn't, it's just that Casey ran a nonexistent campaign after Labor Day.

Correct

[Averroës]

- Weaker opponent
- Trump at the top of the ballot
- Better prepared to run than an entertainer-dilletante with dubious ties to the state
- Didn't have the same trust issues (still not sure I know what Oz's actual politics are)

[Progressive Pessimist]

The environment and Casey being overconfident.

Say what you will about Fetterman now, but in 2022 he campaigned his ass off, fully knowing the stakes of Democrats winning every seat possible.

[Sir Mohamed]

He ran in a better environment and incumbency was a disadvantage for Casey. I think Fetterman running against McCormick in an open seat might have been enough for Dems to hold the seat (if Casey was up in 2022 for example).

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

He was a better candidate than Oz in that he wasn’t dumpster fire tier, but he was still a D+ candidate.  Casey ran an awful campaign and Harris did worse in PA against Trump than she did in Wisconsin and Michigan.  And even with all that, the Green Party likely cost Casey the election which is a notable win for them given that their whole goal is to prevent progressives from winning elections and increasing the odds that right-wingers control the government.

[These birds not meant to fly alone]

I certainly think Oz had an authenticity problem that McCormick was able to overcome. Despite both not being current residents of Pennsylvania, only one was able to successfully sell people on their authenticity. Plus, if I'm being completely honest, I think Oz being a Muslim played at least a minor role.

[oldtimer]

Oz was unfortunate that he faced Fetterman and ran in a Midterm without Trump on the ballot.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman got a sympathy bump unlike Casey for his speech problem and his disability plus as I said he ran with Shapiro

[Roll Roons]

At least McCormick was actually born and raised in PA.

I think the way Oz became rich and famous (being a daytime TV host who sold snake oil) was also off-putting to a lot of people.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

He was a slightly less bad candidate running in a better environment against an opponent who ran a very lazy campaign.

[Samof94]

At least McCormick was actually born and raised in PA.

I think the way Oz became rich and famous (being a daytime TV host who sold snake oil) was also off-putting to a lot of people.

Yeah, he had the problems of being a celebrity and being from another state.

[CentristRepublican]

- Weaker opponent
- Trump at the top of the ballot
- Better prepared to run than an entertainer-dilletante with dubious ties to the state
- Didn't have the same trust issues (still not sure I know what Oz's actual politics are)

And, frankly, he looked and sounded more "American" than Oz. It's true, and we're lying to ourselves if we don't admit that that gave McCormick a bit of a comparative advantage as far as R turnout and other things may go.

I also wouldn't say I disagree with the top point you made, but Casey ending up being weaker than Fetterman is p disgraceful. The latter is a clown and I'd happily trade him for Casey (though McCormick > Oz, as well).

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

- Weaker opponent
- Trump at the top of the ballot
- Better prepared to run than an entertainer-dilletante with dubious ties to the state
- Didn't have the same trust issues (still not sure I know what Oz's actual politics are)

And, frankly, he looked and sounded more "American" than Oz. It's true, and we're lying to ourselves if we don't admit that that gave McCormick a bit of a comparative advantage as far as R turnout and other things may go.

I also wouldn't say I disagree with the top point you made, but Casey ending up being weaker than Fetterman is p disgraceful. The latter is a clown and I'd happily trade him for Casey (though McCormick > Oz, as well).

All of Fetterman's current weaknesses came across as strengths before his mental health hospitalization, personal drama with Senate constituents, and zoom rightwards on Israel/Palestine and then on other issues.

[Pericles]

It's not hard to do better than the guy who goes to "Wegner's" to shop for "crudite".

[TML]

Oz’s history of promoting unproven cures was used in some ads against him - for example, one particular ad showed a man who has self-identified as a Republican for decades stating that certain pills that Oz promoted for weight loss proved ineffective when he tried them.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Oz’s history of promoting unproven cures was used in some ads against him - for example, one particular ad showed a man who has self-identified as a Republican for decades stating that certain pills that Oz promoted for weight loss proved ineffective when he tried them.

Fetterman ran with Shapiro and Casey lost with Harris Walz

[UncleSam]

He created a generic R image and had basically no notable scandals, he campaigned hard, and he raised an ungodly amount of money. If he were a D candidate people on this board would be writing ‘Will he challenge Vance in 2028’ fantasy threads and coming up with disturbing nicknames implying his heightened sexual potency.

Instead he is an R, so he is a ‘D+ candidate who got lucky’.

[Tekken_Guy]

Also he was running in a better year for his party. Casey would have definitely won had this race been held in 2022.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

I wouldn’t say he was a “much stronger” candidate than Oz, just that he had way less baggage and a less aggressive opponent, and Trump was able to carry the state, so that was obviously a big help.