Why is Mike Turner so popular?

[Pericles]

Given the recent news about the Representative for Ohio's 10th district, I was reminded of an odd thing I've been seeing from election results over the years. Ohio's 10th district has been competitive at the presidential level-Romney won it by 2%, Trump by 7% in 2016, Trump by 4% in 2020, and under the new lines it was Trump by 6%. Mike Turner though never had any trouble winning re-election. You'd think a district like that would have at least been close occassionally, especially in a blue wave like 2018, but this guy was just winning blowouts every time. Is there anything about the district that would make them more Republican down-ballot, or is he just great at getting crossover?

And after his recent humiliation by Johnson and Trump, I wonder if he is a retirement risk for 2026. Perhaps then Democrats could get a House flip in Ohio?

[CentristRepublican]

Yeah I was wondering about this too - I've actually asked this question before, elsewhere on here - especially in light of the fact that Turner apparently has some corruption issues.

Maybe he's just viewed as an entrenched moderate? Perhaps he's cultivated a decent relationship with Dayton's black community?

In any case, this definitely could be a sleeper race in 2026 IF Turner retires. Rs may fall asleep at the wheel given how Turner has won all his recent races with ease, but this one could definitely be flippable if he finally steps aside.

[Pollster]

This district was one of the rare Democratic recruitment failures in 2018 - there were very few single-digit Trump seats that year where they weren't able to land even a B-tier candidate like happened here. It's especially surprising given that the bench in the Dayton area is mostly fine.

[Averroës]

I'm sure that there's plenty of color to fill in, but he was mayor for a long time. How many congressional Republicans have the advantage of having led the most Democratic part of their district for nearly a decade before heading to DC?

[CentristRepublican]

I'm sure that there's plenty of color to fill in, but he was mayor for a long time. How many congressional Republicans have the advantage of having led the most Democratic part of their district for nearly a decade before heading to DC?

That probably explains it. He's been in Congress since 2003, so I'm not sure just how many people necessarily still remember his time as Mayor, but he's clearly a local institution.

[Atlas Force]

If Turner does retire then that makes the second Republican Mike from a Midwestern state who could’ve run for Senate last year and might have even outran Trump if he had done so, but instead is just leaving Congress entirely. Talk about recruitment failures…