Jon Ossoff vs. Brian Kemp: Who wins? (January 2025)

[Tekken_Guy]

Asking this question again to see if anyone's opinion has changed.

[GAinDC]

Ossoff but it’ll be so close that I can see Kemp also  pulling it out

It’s GAs leftward trend + Trump midterm vs Kemp’s popularity

[Spectator]

Probably Kemp if he runs. There isn't enough vulnerabilities to hit Kemp on and GA is so close politically that his popularity makes all the difference unless Trump and Republicans are really unpopular. GA is not MD.

[Talleyrand]

Probably Kemp if he runs. There isn't enough vulnerabilities to hit Kemp on and GA is so close politically that his popularity makes all the difference unless Trump and Republicans are really unpopular. GA is not MD.

Agreed. In a reverse 2022-type political environment, Kemp would be a solid favorite. Even in a 2018 redux, his odds would be decent.

[GAinDC]

Probably Kemp if he runs. There isn't enough vulnerabilities to hit Kemp on and GA is so close politically that his popularity makes all the difference unless Trump and Republicans are really unpopular. GA is not MD.

What about Kemp’s frosty relationship with Trump?

[wbrocks67]

You could make the argument either way though I do think it's interesting that Kemp only won by 7 in 2022. He was/is insanely popular, it was an amazing year for Republicans on paper, especially for people like him, and Abrams had become unpopular too. 2024's prez performance too also indicates that the Atlanta suburbs continue to get more blue too.

I'm not sure he really translates to the federal level. I think a lot of his support is crossover right now from D/I who don't think he's that bad but I think that may change in a senate race.

[Existing in the context]

Probably Kemp if he runs. There isn't enough vulnerabilities to hit Kemp on and GA is so close politically that his popularity makes all the difference unless Trump and Republicans are really unpopular. GA is not MD.

What about Kemp’s frosty relationship with Trump?

I don't think that would matter it seems the GOP understand pretty early on now that without Kemp the race is a likely Dem hold.

[GAinDC]

Probably Kemp if he runs. There isn't enough vulnerabilities to hit Kemp on and GA is so close politically that his popularity makes all the difference unless Trump and Republicans are really unpopular. GA is not MD.

What about Kemp’s frosty relationship with Trump?

I don't think that would matter it seems the GOP understand pretty early on now that without Kemp the race is a likely Dem hold.

Oh sure, I know the party brokers realize that. But can Kemp get those “Trump only” voters?

[UncleSam]

Depends on Trump’s favorability.

Most likely Ossoff will win, but if Trump / Rs are having a decent night then Kemp will win. I expect a Dem wave, however.

[GAinDC]

It also depends on how the economy does in the next 2 years. Part of Kemp’s popularity is about people seeing him as good for business in GA. If that somehow changes it’ll hurt his brand. But if the economy stays strong, I think Kemp will be strong.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ossoff. The specter of Trump handicaps Kemp from both directions.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Kemp.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Could go either way but I'd bet my money on Ossoff on a Dem midterm.

Just by nature of running in a competitive Senate race, a lot of his crossover support would erode, and I could see his complicated relationship with Trump causing issues.

[TML]

If Ossoff can avoid making the same kinds of mistakes that cost Bill Nelson & Bob Casey in their respective losses, he should be fine.

[OSR stands with Israel]

You could make the argument either way though I do think it's interesting that Kemp only won by 7 in 2022. He was/is insanely popular, it was an amazing year for Republicans on paper, especially for people like him, and Abrams had become unpopular too. 2024's prez performance too also indicates that the Atlanta suburbs continue to get more blue too.

I'm not sure he really translates to the federal level. I think a lot of his support is crossover right now from D/I who don't think he's that bad but I think that may change in a senate race.

I mean 7 points in GA is quite a lot given demographics there though .

[here2view]

Kemp

[GoTfan]

I'm pretty bullish on Ossoff winning and have been for a while. For starters, Trump-only voters are called Trump-only voters for a reason; they don't show up in midterms. Second, the biggest issue that Kemp will have is the simple fact that he'd be running in a midterm against a pretty noncontroversial Senator with a controversial President who is going to shoot himself in the foot before the midterms happen.

I'm not saying Ossoff will win easily; it's going to be very close he he cannot afford to get complacent, but the fact is that I think a lot of people on here are underestimating him. He's a skilled campaigner, good speaker, doesn't attract controversy and in all likelihood will also have Warnock hitting the trail for him as well.

Of course, let's not forget the spectre of party unity. Georgia Democrats are going to be completely united around Ossoff which means a full war chest for the general. On the other hand, Kemp will likely be caught in a fight with a Trump sycophant. Not saying it will damage him severely, but it may have a similar effect to the 2012 Senate race in Wisconsin where Tommy Thompson spent a lot of his money in the primary and left him under-prepared to face Baldwin in the general.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm pretty bullish on Ossoff winning and have been for a while. For starters, Trump-only voters are called Trump-only voters for a reason; they don't show up in midterms. Second, the biggest issue that Kemp will have is the simple fact that he'd be running in a midterm against a pretty noncontroversial Senator with a controversial President who is going to shoot himself in the foot before the midterms happen.

I'm not saying Ossoff will win easily; it's going to be very close he he cannot afford to get complacent, but the fact is that I think a lot of people on here are underestimating him. He's a skilled campaigner, good speaker, doesn't attract controversy and in all likelihood will also have Warnock hitting the trail for him as well.

Of course, let's not forget the spectre of party unity. Georgia Democrats are going to be completely united around Ossoff which means a full war chest for the general. On the other hand, Kemp will likely be caught in a fight with a Trump sycophant. Not saying it will damage him severely, but it may have a similar effect to the 2012 Senate race in Wisconsin where Tommy Thompson spent a lot of his money in the primary and left him under-prepared to face Baldwin in the general.

One thing that also would benefit democrats in close downballot races in GA is the runoff rule . If the race is very tight , then it’s likely that the race would end up going to a runoff and turnout dynamics would likely favor the Democrats there

[CityofSinners]

Ossoff by the smallest margin.

A popular governor like Kemp is a very strong candidate. By far the strongest candidate republicans have.
Ossoff will need to rely on other advantages to overcome Kemp's strength as a candidate. Good news for Ossoff that there are quite a few.

The biggest advantage of course is that Trump is president. The midterm backlash is among the most enduring features of american politics. Dems held up well among the highest turnout groups. Big help in a lower turnout midterm election.
GA has been trending left every presidental election since 2004. The state is only 0.7 points to the right of the nation. By 2026 it will likely be to the left of the nation. Some Atlanta suburbs are among the very few places that actually moved left from 2020 to '24.

Kemp having a trifecta means he signed quite a few things that can be used to paint him as a conventional republican. The 6 week abortion ban as an example.
Governors like Larry Hogan and Steve Bullok had divided governments and no opportunity to sign unpopular laws.
Compared to the overperformance from governors like Hogan, Bullok, Scott, Beshear or Kelly winning by 7 points in a republican midterm was not that impressive.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Ossoff starts out as a narrow favorite. Sure, he could run a lethargic campaign and it’s always possible 2026 isn’t as good for Democrats as expected, but if he takes this race seriously and there is the usual backlash against the incumbent party, I think he wins. Kemp will overperform the baseline for sure, but the baseline in a Democratic-trending state that voted less than one point to the right of the PV would probably be about D+6-7 in a typical midterm environment.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Sure, he could run a lethargic campaign

throwback to the last time a twink from ATL who defeated a one-term GOP incumbent represented Georgia in the Senate and he spent his re-election year traveling in the Middle East with his sick friend instead of campaigning

[Spectator]

It might behoove Ossoff and to vote like someone like Joe Donnelly or Heidi Heitkamp did. They lost in 2018 sure, but they way outperformed the baseline in their states. It’s not like Ossoff’s vote matters in this Senate. He will never be a tie breaker. Be a fake moderate/D Trump ally for two years and you can probably get just enough crossover support to win even against Kemp.

[Fight! Fight! Fight!]

Isn't Brian Kemp a very conservative Republican?  In what ways would he appeal to a swing voter asides from the name recognition?  I'm not from GA so I really don't know.

I have a feeling this is going to be a very nasty partisan race.  Democrats have to hold this seat, so it's going to be a nationalized race.

[Doomer]

Isn't Brian Kemp a very conservative Republican?  In what ways would he appeal to a swing voter asides from the name recognition?  I'm not from GA so I really don't know.

I have a feeling this is going to be a very nasty partisan race.  Democrats have to hold this seat, so it's going to be a nationalized race.

Kemp is very popular across the state.

Georgia is also not a strong Trump state. We don’t like him here. Some part of the Trump-Kemp feud fuels some portion of Kemp’s high approval.

[iceman]

Ossoff is among the most overrated members of the Senate. Kemp wins.