Which of these senators would have lost re-election if they were up in 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which of these senators would have lost re-election if they were up in 2024?

[Spectator]

Cooper just narrowly ekes out wins over either of Tillis or Budd, especially with the hurricane hitting when it did and him being on the frontlines. Same for GA, Kemp would beat either of them but if he declines, I could see Ossoff or Warnock just narrowly getting enough ticket splitters.

Peters probably loses as well.

[Talleyrand]

Cooper just narrowly ekes out wins over either of Tillis or Budd, especially with the hurricane hitting when it did and him being on the frontlines. Same for GA, Kemp would beat either of them but if he declines, I could see Ossoff or Warnock just narrowly getting enough ticket splitters.

Peters probably loses as well.

Agree with all these although I'm not as rosy on Cooper. I would add that CCM might underperform Rosen, but probably eke it out by a margin closer to Slotkin's.

[JMT]

This assumes the challenger is the same candidate that ran in that state’s election in 2024 (if they had an election in 2024):

-Kelly: defeats Kari Lake (by more than Gallego did) 
-Ossoff/Warnock: loses to Kemp (if he ran). Defeats any other GOP challenger.
-Collins: defeats any Dem challenger
-Peters: defeats Mike Rogers (by slightly larger margin than Slotkin did)
-CCM: defeats Sam Brown (by slightly smaller margin than Rosen did)
-Tillis: loses to Cooper (if he ran). Defeats any other Dem challenger.
-Budd: defeats any Dem challenger (including Cooper, I feel like Budd is a stronger candidate than Tillis).
-Fetterman: defeats McCormick
-Johnson: defeats any Dem challenger

[Tekken_Guy]

This assumes the challenger is the same candidate that ran in that state’s election in 2024 (if they had an election in 2024):

-Kelly: defeats Kari Lake (by more than Gallego did) 
-Ossoff/Warnock: loses to Kemp (if he ran). Defeats any other GOP challenger.
-Collins: defeats any Dem challenger
-Peters: defeats Mike Rogers (by slightly larger margin than Slotkin did)
-CCM: defeats Sam Brown (by slightly smaller margin than Rosen did)
-Tillis: loses to Cooper (if he ran). Defeats any other Dem challenger.
-Budd: defeats any Dem challenger (including Cooper, I feel like Budd is a stronger candidate than Tillis).
-Fetterman: defeats McCormick
-Johnson: defeats any Dem challenger

How would a Johnson vs. Baldwin or Collins vs. King race go?

And how would Kelly, Peters, CCM, and Fetterman fare against generic Rs?

[Talleyrand]

I think Johnson ekes it out against Baldwin due to the national environment. King would comfortably beat Collins though.

[Spectator]

Cooper just narrowly ekes out wins over either of Tillis or Budd, especially with the hurricane hitting when it did and him being on the frontlines. Same for GA, Kemp would beat either of them but if he declines, I could see Ossoff or Warnock just narrowly getting enough ticket splitters.

Peters probably loses as well.

Agree with all these although I'm not as rosy on Cooper. I would add that CCM might underperform Rosen, but probably eke it out by a margin closer to Slotkin's.

I think Cooper just ekes out wins by the skin of his teeth like he did in 2016 when Trump won the state by a hair more than he did in 2024. Cooper being the incumbent outgoing governor in the aftermath of the hurricane gives him the edge over both Tillis and Budd (who is extremely overrated on this forum—his 2022 win was pretty weak given that he was considered the rare “good” GOP candidate that year.)

[Raccoon]

Cooper just narrowly ekes out wins over either of Tillis or Budd, especially with the hurricane hitting when it did and him being on the frontlines. Same for GA, Kemp would beat either of them but if he declines, I could see Ossoff or Warnock just narrowly getting enough ticket splitters.

Peters probably loses as well.

Agree with all these although I'm not as rosy on Cooper. I would add that CCM might underperform Rosen, but probably eke it out by a margin closer to Slotkin's.

I think Cooper just ekes out wins by the skin of his teeth like he did in 2016 when Trump won the state by a hair more than he did in 2024. Cooper being the incumbent outgoing governor in the aftermath of the hurricane gives him the edge over both Tillis and Budd (who is extremely overrated on this forum—his 2022 win was pretty weak given that he was considered the rare “good” GOP candidate that year.)

If Cooper runs (But there are other candidates who could win as well).. I do have him favored in 2026. There has not been a senate race in a republican midterm in a very long time in NC

Even in 2016 and 2020, Democrats have won statewide in North Carolina. A lot of the GOP's successful in NC is sheer luck. Having competitive elections in 2014 and 2022 for example. Both GOP years (yes 2022 was a gop year, even if people don't want to admit it). Oh, and let's not forget why Tillis won in 2020.. Cunningham scandal did hurt the Dems chances.

I could see cooper eeking it out, even if 2026 is a reverse 2022.

A candidate besides cooper? Not that hard to see Tillis squeaking by, but we shall see.