🇦🇺 Australian general election (May 3 2025)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Guess what is the only seat in NSW currently swinging against Labor to the Coalition! It's Whitlam! With a disendorsed Liberal candidate for being sexist about women in the military. Who had no national party campaigning help for a month. And he's getting a 2% swing!

[Talleyrand]

What on earth is going in Hughes?

[Intell]

Guess what is the only seat in NSW currently swinging against Labor to the Coalition! It's Whitlam! With a disendorsed Liberal candidate for being sexist about women in the military. Who had no national party campaigning help for a month. And he's getting a 2% swing!

The "Pauline Hanson" effect

[Talleyrand]

On (very) early numbers, there's a swing to the L/NP in WA. Would be hilarious if it held up given the results elsewhere.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

What on earth is going in Hughes?

Looks like all the swing is on the Menai side which makes sense, their vote has been so low there for years in spite of their strength in state elections. The redistribution was a dream for Labor (Ingleburn booths!) and I guess they exploited it properly.

[Pulaski]

This looks like a bigger win than I thought

[Pericles]

On (very) early numbers, there's a swing to the L/NP in WA. Would be hilarious if it held up given the results elsewhere.

It makes sense for the state to trend right given that the 2022 swing clearly came a lot from a Covid bump for the state Labor party, but the polling didn't show the expected swing back to its normal lean or any swing at all.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Guess what is the only seat in NSW currently swinging against Labor to the Coalition! It's Whitlam! With a disendorsed Liberal candidate for being sexist about women in the military. Who had no national party campaigning help for a month. And he's getting a 2% swing!

The "Pauline Hanson" effect

Alternatively, Liberal national campaigning (nuclear! woke! voice!) actively hurt their vote compared to a blank slate talking about upgrading macquarie pass lol.

[Pulaski]

wow, Peter Dutton has lost Dickson?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Quite funny - the genuine left-wing Gaza independent in Watson is running second but the fake ex-Liberal Gaza independent in McMahon has completely flopped.

[Pericles]

If Labor get around 54% in the 2PP, what other election results in their party's history would that compare to?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Jacinta Price talking about misleading the people is incredibly rich.

[Talleyrand]

If Labor get around 54% in the 2PP, what other election results in their party's history would that compare to?

53.3% in 1983, 54.1% in 1946, and 58.2% in 1943. Their recent highwater mark was 52.7%.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If Labor get around 54% in the 2PP, what other election results in their party's history would that compare to?

53.3% in 1983, 54.1% in 1946, and 58.2% in 1943. Their recent highwater mark was 52.7%.

And 56.7% in 1929 (the most comically timed election in world history, socialists win a sweeping majority with agenda for bold reform.... literally two weeks later is the Wall Street crash.)

[Pulaski]

If Labor get around 54% in the 2PP, what other election results in their party's history would that compare to?

None in living memory IIRC? 1983 they got 53.2, I think that was their high watermark post-war

[Pericles]

I'm reminded of this old clip of Mark McGowan, he would say that about Dutton though he was surprisingly fair to Morrison.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If Labor get around 54% in the 2PP, what other election results in their party's history would that compare to?

None in living memory IIRC? 1983 they got 53.2, I think that was their high watermark post-war

Though it must be said Labor's got unlucky - they should've won a 55-56% landslide in 1984 but Mick Young fcked up the voting reform and the campaign.
2007 likewise saw a late swing back thanks to Howard's sheer desperation, helped by the massive surplus he could spend on buying votes back.

[Talleyrand]

Has Dan Tehan been bandied about as a potential Liberal leader?

Edit: Nevermind. Speirs just asked whether him he'd contest the leadership.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Has Dan Tehan been bandied about as a potential Liberal leader?

Yes. He's always had a good profile - a staunch Victorian moderate but also a Catholic with culturally conservative inclinations that make him acceptable to the conservative faction. He's a bit of a charisma vacuum but he doesn't have foot in mouth problems.
But I sadly suspect Angus Taylor is a fait accompli as leader in the circumstances. Well done Angus!

[Talleyrand]

Looks like Bullwinkel's the single likeliest ALP > L/NP flip tonight.

[Pulaski]

Bloodbath

[Pericles]

The Labor primary vote is still quite low. It's unclear if the story is simply that the Liberal vote dispersed elsewhere, or if minor parties have eaten chunks out of both two parties. Labor got 34.7% in 2016 while losing, it doesn't look like they'll exceed that but will remain in that 33-34% range.

[#UnbanTender]

ABC results page is back up

[Talleyrand]

The ALP has to have a good shot at a third senate seat in SA and Tasmania on these numbers, no?

[Pulaski]

Labor may well hit 90 seats