🇦🇺 Australian general election (May 3 2025)

[YL]

Hmm. Does Labor have a prayer in Braddon?

The swing seems to be getting slightly bigger if anything as more is counted. Still under 10% counted though.

[morgieb]

if anyone wants to understand the Teals - in my seat Sophie Scamps's slogan sums it up

If Bean flips that's going to be interesting to see how Price fares with them, the message to win a Labor seat would likely look a lot different to a Liberal one.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

if anyone wants to understand the Teals - in my seat Sophie Scamps's slogan sums it up

It’s fascinating to see this, given how “2007 UK Tories” it’s all coded. The people yearn for eco-warrior David Cameron.

The Teals definitely have 2010 A-List Central Office imposed candidate energy. I wonder who will be the Louise Mensch equivalent lmfao

[morgieb]

Hmm. Does Labor have a prayer in Braddon?

The circumstances there was always likely to cause a decent swing, but I was a bit shy in out and out calling it.

Of course, it looks like I've underestimated Labor in the whole country...

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow. Labor is netting a swing thus far in Victoria.
0.6%, but it's still something.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

"Why are pre-polls so right-wing" is a very good question and it's quite funny how we still don't have a good answer for it.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Based on current swings in Griffith, I hope everyone is ready for a Max Chandler-Mather meltdown.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

"It's hard to see the Coalition forming government."

[Torrain]

if anyone wants to understand the Teals - in my seat Sophie Scamps's slogan sums it up
https://www.instagram.com/p/DIciCrhTHoi/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

It’s fascinating to see this, given how “2007 UK Tories” it’s all coded. The people yearn for eco-warrior David Cameron.

The Teals definitely have 2010 A-List Central Office imposed candidate energy. I wonder who will be the Louise Mensch equivalent lmfao

I’ve wondered a couple of times whether the Liberals might give some version of Cameron’s pitch (probably looks a bit Turnball) a go at some point to sweep these voters back into the fold, but it always just seemed a bit alien to the political culture - too far cultural left?

Definitely a question for once the dust has settled but curious whether there’s a more plausible way for the LNP to loop that bloc back into their column.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

"Pre-polls will have to be extraordinary...an absolute superweapon"

[AustralianSwingVoter]

if anyone wants to understand the Teals - in my seat Sophie Scamps's slogan sums it up
https://www.instagram.com/p/DIciCrhTHoi/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

It’s fascinating to see this, given how “2007 UK Tories” it’s all coded. The people yearn for eco-warrior David Cameron.

The Teals definitely have 2010 A-List Central Office imposed candidate energy. I wonder who will be the Louise Mensch equivalent lmfao

I’ve wondered a couple of times whether the Liberals might give some version of Cameron’s pitch (probably looks a bit Turnball) a go at some point to sweep these voters back into the fold, but it always just seemed a bit alien to the political culture - too far cultural left?

Definitely a question for once the dust has settled but curious whether there’s a more plausible way for the LNP to loop that bloc back into their column.

Try squaring Cameron's pitch with the National party. See if you can come up with a version of Cameron's pitch that'd be acceptable to Barnaby Joyce lmao.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

"Punchbowl, New South Wales"
I love Aussie placenames.

[GoTfan]

Antony Green is saying that he can't see anything good for the Coalition yet.

[Talleyrand]

The James McGrath cope is rapidly intensifying on ABC.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Why not just replace James McGrath with a wind up doll that says "this is early results" "wait for pre-polls". It'd be just as stilted delivery but it'd have more life in its eyes.

[somerandomth]

Antony Green is saying that he can't see anything good for the Coalition yet.

Understatement of the century.

[Torrain]

if anyone wants to understand the Teals - in my seat Sophie Scamps's slogan sums it up
https://www.instagram.com/p/DIciCrhTHoi/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

It’s fascinating to see this, given how “2007 UK Tories” it’s all coded. The people yearn for eco-warrior David Cameron.

The Teals definitely have 2010 A-List Central Office imposed candidate energy. I wonder who will be the Louise Mensch equivalent lmfao

I’ve wondered a couple of times whether the Liberals might give some version of Cameron’s pitch (probably looks a bit Turnball) a go at some point to sweep these voters back into the fold, but it always just seemed a bit alien to the political culture - too far cultural left?

Definitely a question for once the dust has settled but curious whether there’s a more plausible way for the LNP to loop that bloc back into their column.

Try squaring Cameron's pitch with the National party. See if you can come up with a version of Cameron's pitch that'd be acceptable to Barnaby Joyce lmao.

Lmao, that’s fair - and how most of those thought experiments end. “Sure would be interesting, but the man in a cowboy hat having a tantrum would stop it”.

[somerandomth]

Why not just replace James McGrath with a wind up doll that says "this is early results" "wait for pre-polls". It'd be just as stilted delivery.

It's also like...the ABC projections already take into account pre-polls being favourable for the Coalition. Anthony Green has explained that and yet he still tries to cope on the pre-polls. Like, no, it's not the woke on-the-day-votes trying to get you - you're just being hammered by the voters.

[icc]

Who is the Indy in Bean? Looking very good ATM.

[YL]

Poll Bludger has called Bass, Bennelong, Dickson and Leichhardt as Labor gains.

[#UnbanTender]

If I had a nickel for every time a center right party leader whose name begins with P loses his seat after leading the national polls, I'd have two nickels-- which isn't a lot, but.....

[The '90s' Last Champion]

These feel like "Labor 'holds' Bullwinkel"-style numbers.

Poll Bludger has called Bass, Bennelong, Dickson and Leichhardt as Labor gains.

Gilmore, Reid, Parramatta, Paterson as well. The pre-polls have to be very very good for the LNP for them to win.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Why not just replace James McGrath with a wind up doll that says "this is early results" "wait for pre-polls". It'd be just as stilted delivery.

It's also like...the ABC projections already take into account pre-polls being favourable for the Coalition.

Must give one point - the ABC projections don't take into account pre-polls having a different swing to ordinary votes. At past election pre-polls consistently have weaker swings, and that pattern will flip some seats back. McGrath isn't 100% wrong, there's a reason Jim Chalmers isn't pushing back on him that much.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

LMFAO first Don Farrell joke of the night

[JimJamUK]

Whispers… PollBludger has Labor ahead in Melbourne…*



*3.4% counted, only primaries so far, probably won’t hold