Hypothetical: Could John Bel Edwards win LA-SEN 2026 if Rs nominate a QAnon supporter against him

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

?

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

They could also nominate David Duke.

[Compuzled_One]

He can win without that, so yes.

[Crane]

It would be an exceptional heavy lift because the whole Republican Party has gone coo-coo for Cocoa Puffs, but he "can" win, definitely.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No.

[minisoldr]

The tenets of QAnon are basically what the average Republican believes in nowadays, so no.

I'm not sure if even a David Duke nomination would get him to win at this point.

[iceman]

Louisiana is one most partisan states on the Federal level, so No.

[Vosem]

No, but the possibility of a Top Two split in Louisiana allowing two Democrats to advance to a runoff might be underrated. In 2016, a decently Republican year, the second Democrat performed 12% worse than the first Republican (Kennedy-R 25%, Campbell-D 18%, Boustany-R 15%, Fayard-D 13%).

I am kind of skeptical of John Bel Edwards doing any better than Larry Hogan. (Although...Trump lost Maryland to Harris by 29 points, and Hogan lost Maryland to Alsobrooks by 12 points, so he did 17 points better. A similar outperformance by JBE in Louisiana would mean...Harris lost Louisiana to Trump by 22 points...never mind). A better tactic for Democrats might be, like, two state Senators from opposite ends of the state, or with very different political styles, to try to split the vote as evenly as possible.

[Tekken_Guy]

No, but the possibility of a Top Two split in Louisiana allowing two Democrats to advance to a runoff might be underrated. In 2016, a decently Republican year, the second Democrat performed 12% worse than the first Republican (Kennedy-R 25%, Campbell-D 18%, Boustany-R 15%, Fayard-D 13%).

I am kind of skeptical of John Bel Edwards doing any better than Larry Hogan. (Although...Trump lost Maryland to Harris by 29 points, and Hogan lost Maryland to Alsobrooks by 12 points, so he did 17 points better. A similar outperformance by JBE in Louisiana would mean...Harris lost Louisiana to Trump by 22 points...never mind). A better tactic for Democrats might be, like, two state Senators from opposite ends of the state, or with very different political styles, to try to split the vote as evenly as possible.

Louisiana abolished that system for 2026 and now has standard D vs. R races.

[Zenobiyl]

He’s a democrat, so no.

[smoltchanov]

Not now. 10-12 years ago - possibly. Since then 70% of Louisiana population became ready to vote for not only Republican, but Landry-Higgins-Fleming Republican..

[CentristRepublican]

No, but the possibility of a Top Two split in Louisiana allowing two Democrats to advance to a runoff might be underrated. In 2016, a decently Republican year, the second Democrat performed 12% worse than the first Republican (Kennedy-R 25%, Campbell-D 18%, Boustany-R 15%, Fayard-D 13%).

I am kind of skeptical of John Bel Edwards doing any better than Larry Hogan. (Although...Trump lost Maryland to Harris by 29 points, and Hogan lost Maryland to Alsobrooks by 12 points, so he did 17 points better. A similar outperformance by JBE in Louisiana would mean...Harris lost Louisiana to Trump by 22 points...never mind). A better tactic for Democrats might be, like, two state Senators from opposite ends of the state, or with very different political styles, to try to split the vote as evenly as possible.

LA has abolished jungle primaries in Senate elections.

[CentristRepublican]

Not now. 10-12 years ago - possibly. Since then 70% of Louisiana population became ready to vote for not only Republican, but Landry-Higgins-Fleming Republican..

70%?? LA is red, but not that red!!

[CentristRepublican]

Anyway, no, he couldn’t. His ceiling would be like 3-5 points better than Phil Bredesen 2018.

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe if his opponent is David Duke. But even someone like Clay Higgins would still win.

[CheapDollarEra?]

He would need his opponent to be very anti catholic

[smoltchanov]

Not now. 10-12 years ago - possibly. Since then 70% of Louisiana population became ready to vote for not only Republican, but Landry-Higgins-Fleming Republican..

70%?? LA is red, but not that red!!

Slight exaggeration, but if Rural Blacks will continue their rightward movement, and Democratic party will continue to run "nobodies" (as in 2023)  - possible

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

He’d probably overperform like Hogan but still come up short by a wide margin.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Not for Senate, no.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Not for Senate, no.

About as likely as Bill Weld winning in 1996.

[Samof94]

Maybe if his opponent is David Duke. But even someone like Clay Higgins would still win.

He tried again in 2016 and got nowhere

[EastOfEden]

Standard Bredesen/Bullock/Hogan/etc outcome, loses by 10.

[Not Me, Us]

He would lose by 10+ points. Even if he won it wouldn’t matter, for all intents and purposes he isn’t really a Democrat.

[windjammer]

I mean Hogan overperformed by 18 points

[Oryxslayer]

How many times to we have to walk down the "popular governor for mismatched partisan senate" road? These things don't really succeed unless the incumbent is at 20/80 approval rating and the state is naturally more open to the opposition.