Early prediction for 2026's tipping point Senate race
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June 07, 2025, 10:39:48 AM
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  Early prediction for 2026's tipping point Senate race		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: At this point, what do you think will be the tipping point Senate race for 2026?
#1
Alabama		  
#2
Alaska		  
#3
Arkansas		  
#4
Colorado		  
#5
Delaware		  
#6
Florida		  
#7
Georgia		  
#8
Idaho		  
#9
Illinois		  
#10
Iowa		  
#11
Kansas		  
#12
Kentucky		  
#13
Louisiana		  
#14
Maine		  
#15
Massachusetts		  
#16
Michigan		  
#17
Minnesota		  
#18
Mississippi		  
#19
Montana		  
#20
Nebraska		  
#21
New Hampshire		  
#22
New Jersey		  
#23
New Mexico		  
#24
North Carolina		  
#25
Ohio		  
#26
Oklahoma		  
#27
Oregon		  
#28
Rhode Island		  
#29
South Carolina		  
#30
South Dakota		  
#31
Tennessee		  
#32
Texas		  
#33
Virginia		  
#34
West Virginia		  
#35
Wyoming		  
#36
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 41

Author Topic: Early prediction for 2026's tipping point Senate race  (Read 1124 times)
Samof94
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: January 03, 2025, 08:59:46 AM »
Quote from: DS0816 on January 03, 2025, 03:39:22 AM


🇺🇸 Solid shades: Party holds. Light shades: Party pickups. 🇺🇸

Estimate:
🔴 48. Maine 🔵
🔴 49. North Carolina 🔵
🔴 50. Texas 🔵
🔴 51. Alaska 🔵

— Or…—

🔴 48. Maine 🔵
🔴 49. North Carolina 🔵
🔴 50. Alaska 🔵
🔴 51. Texas 🔵
Texas is a state I can’t see flip at all.
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David Hume
davidhume
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,112
United States


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E: -0.77, S: 1.22

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« Reply #26 on: January 05, 2025, 10:26:56 PM »
R have 48 seats from states where Trump won by 10+, 2 from NC, 1 from PA, WI, ME each. In 2026, only one from NC and ME will be on ballot, making their floor 51.

In terms of likelihood, I would say:

55 MI
54 GA
53 NC
52 ME
51 OH
50 TX
49 FL
48 AS
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Talleyrand
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: January 07, 2025, 01:18:55 AM »
What's the argument for Texas being a better Democratic pickup opportunity than Ohio, Alaska, and/or Iowa?
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Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: January 07, 2025, 04:12:18 PM »
45. NH
46. MI
47. NC
48. ME
49. GA
50. KS
51. IA

Can swap 50 and 51. GA assumes Kemp runs. If not it goes to 47. ME assumes one of Mills or Golden runs.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
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Jamaica


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« Reply #29 on: January 07, 2025, 06:14:19 PM »
Quote from: Spectator on January 07, 2025, 04:12:18 PM
45. NH
46. MI
47. NC
48. ME
49. GA
50. KS
51. IA

Can swap 50 and 51. GA assumes Kemp runs. If not it goes to 47. ME assumes one of Mills or Golden runs.


We have zero chances in IA and KS more like OH and NE
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