Early prediction for 2026's tipping point Senate race

[TML]

Remember that the tipping point Senate race is the one which, when arranged by winning margin, clinches the Senate majority (for 2026, this would be Seat 51 for Democrats but Seat 50 for Republicans). Since major election prognosticators have not yet released their ratings for 2026's Senate contests, I've included all races here, including the two expected special elections. The "Other" option would involve one or more seats which may open up in 2026 due to vacancies between now and then (excluding the two widely expected vacancies in FL & OH).

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

NC right now and if need be ME, NE and OH are in Play

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a pretty hard question because part of it will depend on which "reach" seats Democrats choose to make a serious effort in (AK/IA/KS/OH/TX/ect).

My initial guess would be all the current Dem seats + ME/NC would get them to 49, and then if I had to choose I'd say AK 50 and KS 51, with but again depends on where they get good recruits and which they choose to invest in.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This is a pretty hard question because part of it will depend on which "reach" seats Democrats choose to make a serious effort in (AK/IA/KS/OH/TX/ect).

My initial guess would be all the current Dem seats + ME/NC would get them to 49, and then if I had to choose I'd say AK 50 and KS 51, with but again depends on where they get good recruits and which they choose to invest in.

We won't win TX Cornyn is safe and neither are we gonna win FL

[Zenobiyl]

Kansas

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Marshall is safe. NE, OH, NC, ME en route S majority

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Alaska or Iowa

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

NE, OH, NC and ME are the pathway to majority and it is always NC we are waiting on Cooper. Reynolds won by 33 last time is gonna carry Ernst but there is no candidate


Tim Ryan or Greg Landsman or Brown are looking at it but they lost by 5

We aré gonna have to win the )VI by 4.1 not 3 to win the Demate

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Iowa or Kansas.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa or Kansas.

Nope it's NC and everyone knows it with Cooper trying to run

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

OH, NC, ME are our tippers because they are within 5 pts and NE has an independent running. Of course states within 5 pts are gonna be contested

Osborn can assume over Pete Ricketts can assume the Rancher label against Ricketts this time he is definitely running but it's our 4th seat pickup after OH.

No one of importance is running in TX or IA

[Compuzled_One]

I'd say Iowa.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I'd say Iowa.

No one is running , do you know what a tipping or race is it's a race decided by 4 pts or less given that NE, NC and OH were very close in 20/22/24 it's swing seats


Plse put money into IA it will go down the drain

[Compuzled_One]

I'd say Iowa.

No one is running , do you know what a tipping or race is it's a race decided by 4 pts or less given that NE, NC and OH were very close in 20/22/24 it's swing seats


Plse put money into IA it will go down the drain

The tipping point is the state/district that decides the election, like Pennsylvania in the presidential election this year, Montana in the Senate ones, PA-7 in the House one, and Indiana+Montana in the gubernatorial one. Look it up.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Go ahead and say Iowa and pour money down the drain I don't see anyone running

[Compuzled_One]

Go ahead and say Iowa and pour money down the drain I don't see anyone running

I didn't say to pour in money-the tipping point in 2008's Senate elections was 25 points away, no one put any money into it.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Iowa most likely.

[Mr. Smith]

Georgia or Michigan.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa is a red state now, given Reynolds won by 33 we Ds probably win IA 1 that's it

[Del Tachi]

Alaska, Iowa, or Ohio. NC/GA/ME will be significantly to the left of the tipping point.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Alaska, Iowa, or Ohio. NC/GA/ME will be significantly to the left of the tipping point.

No

[DS0816]

🇺🇸 Solid shades: Party holds. Light shades: Party pickups. 🇺🇸

Estimate:
🔴 48. Maine 🔵
🔴 49. North Carolina 🔵
🔴 50. Texas 🔵
🔴 51. Alaska 🔵

— Or…—

🔴 48. Maine 🔵
🔴 49. North Carolina 🔵
🔴 50. Alaska 🔵
🔴 51. Texas 🔵

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

NC is the ultimate tipping pt Gov Cooper but this is our path to S majority of Osborn runs against Ricketts

[Spectator]

IA, KS, or OH

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, it's OH there is no inc and Brown and Ryan barely lost but those Emerson polls show an R bias in OH


It won't be Iowa unless Sand runs and even that he is still the Dog in the race


TX won't go D unless Guiterrez runs and that before NE will be out 50 th seat.


Matt Dolan is likely gonna be the R inc in OH


Iowa was the tipping or in 20 but we haven't won IA since 2014