2024 Senate polling errors

[TML]

Now that the dust has pretty much settled, I decided to compare actual Senate results against 538's final polling averages (which were only available for select races) and calculate the polling error for each race. Here are the results:

State	Final 538 Polling Average	Actual Result	Polling Error
Arizona	D+4.1	D+2.4	R+1.7
California	D+23.2	D+17.7	R+5.5
Florida	R+4.7	R+12.8	R+8.1
Maryland	D+10.4	D+11.8	D+1.4
Massachusetts	D+22.3	D+19.8	R+2.5
Michigan	D+3.6	D+0.3	R+3.3
Minnesota	D+12.8	D+15.7	D+2.9
Missouri	R+9.6	R+13.7	R+4.1
Montana	R+6.9	R+7.1	R+0.2
Nebraska	R+2.4	R+6.7	R+4.3
Nevada	D+5.7	D+1.7	R+4.0
New Mexico	D+9.5	D+10.1	D+0.6
New York	D+23.3	D+18.3	R+5.0
Ohio	R+0.8	R+3.6	R+2.8
Pennsylvania	D+2.8	R+0.2	R+3.0
Texas	R+4.0	R+8.5	R+4.5
Utah	R+30.9	R+30.8	D+0.1
Virginia	D+10.6	D+8.9	R+1.7
Wisconsin	D+2.2	D+0.9	R+1.3

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

D4 in MT is so funny

[wbrocks67]

Honestly not too bad for the swing states given that we constantly got a barrage of Brown, Hovde, McCormick etc at like 39-43% for weeks and weeks which we knew was all very unlikely

Interesting that AZ was actually very decent

[kwabbit]

Klobuchar won by 15.7, not 10.7. Interesting that she was underestimated. It seems like polls have trouble picking up support for big incumbent overperformers. Susan Collins was famously underestimated, but so was Rob Portman, John McCain, etc.

[Roll Roons]

Still a travesty that NJ was so underpolled across the board.

[TML]

Klobuchar won by 15.7, not 10.7. Interesting that she was underestimated. It seems like polls have trouble picking up support for big incumbent overperformers. Susan Collins was famously underestimated, but so was Rob Portman, John McCain, etc.

Nice catch.

[It's Time.]

Florida GOP being underestimated was not surprising

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

TX and FL GOP always are underestimated we lost both states by 10. Pts, Allred was nowhere near 4 pts behind

[Samof94]

TX and FL GOP always are underestimated we lost both states by 10. Pts, Allred was nowhere near 4 pts behind

Yeah, Florida in particular given it was a swing state pre-Covid.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

They are D reach states but if we can win OH in 26 Senate that is a D reach state and can help us win the S, and make it a tossup in 28 we only lost it by 4 pts 🟤. If we win the PVI by 3.5 we will win the S

But, TX is underestimated because Greg Abbott is so popular and he always is at the border with Trump. The  R party is safe in Abbott hands if someone like Allred not Beto lost by 9 pts

[Mr. Smith]

You didn't do Washington?

[TML]

You didn't do Washington?

This was not one of the states where there was an aggregate polling average by 538.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Allred was never down only 4 pts

[PALiberal]

Allred was never down only 4 pts

Yeah, hell even some polls had him LEADING LMFAOOOOOO

[Samof94]

Allred was never down only 4 pts

A lot of people were going to vote for Cruz as he is “pro life pro gun pro family”. Many people moved to Texas because it leans right.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Newsom or Curry can definitely peel off voters in TX in Dallas and Harris Counties, in a Blue not neutral cycle which is probably a D+5 not D+3.5 Eday

Walz was definitely the wrong pick it felt like the red wave that happened to Ds in 22 during IAN when.the Walz pick backfired on Harris.

Because how did her polls drop on Eday when she was going on interviews, Walz polls were going down not Harris


That's why I am supporting Curry and Alsobrooks or Newsom and Whitmer not Harris 2.0