How likely is it 2026 is a 2022-esq midterm?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe the national environment is a bit more favorable to Dems than 2024 and they flip the House, but their overall performance is fairly underwhelming - perhaps they only hold even or have a net loss when it comes to the Senate, governorships, and state legs.



I personally think it's possible, but if it did occur it'd be for different reasons than what happened in 2022.

In 2022, part of the problem was just Republicans nominated a lot of terrible candidates in key races - I generally think Democratic Primary voters tend to have a better sense of electability, so I don't see them nominating bad candidates on a large enough scale to cause a 2022 type situation.

I think Dems biggest concerns should just be that Trump remains relatively popular and Rs are successful at getting enough of these voters out in 2026. Trump has shown remarkable resilience politically to various attacks and scandals, and polls & election results have shown many Americans may just be further right on issues like immigration than Democrats would like to admit. It's not that hard to see a world where Republicans find a way to successfully utilize social media to get some of these people who normally only vote in Pres cycles (for Trump) to come out in midterms.

I also think Democrats do risk an identity crisis in terms of messaging where they try throwing everything at the wall, almost nothing sticks, and they end up appealing to no-one.

One advantage Democrats do have is they have a larger base of high-propensity high-engagement voters who are likely to show up no matter what, so a lot of this comes down to Republican's ability to get their voters out.

[GAinDC]

so, what's the strategy to get low-propensity Trump voters to turn out in a midterm if many of them didn't even bother to vote down ballot this year?

The problem for R's in off-year and midterm elections is that Trump constantly says things like "only I can fix it," and "vote for me this time and you won't have to vote again." He doesn't stress to his voters that he needs Republican majorities to do all this stuff, so they are often just not primed to turn out when he isn't on the ballot.

I think this will remain a problem even if Trump is relatively popular.

[Fancyarcher]

I guess, but remember, 2022 was actually based on persuasion. Democrats and Biden voters in general stayed home, and Democrats won in key competitive races based on still R-leaning suburban voters and independents.

A midterm with a more charged Dem base (if it happens, can't say yet) likely produces a far more bluer environment.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/republican-gains-in-2022-midterms-driven-mostly-by-turnout-advantage/

[GAinDC]

Even a 2022 environment would probably flip the House for Dems and win them some tough races, so I'd be ok with that, anyway.

[Mr.Phips]

Not unlikely.  My prediction is Dems picking up 9 House seats and 1/2 senate seats (NC/ME or both).

[ottermax]

I do think Democrats face an uphill battle because they overperformed this year which means they are starting from a higher floor. There are not many seats like there were in 2018 where there are obvious wins and Democrats have just as many seats that are relatively vulnerable. Due to gerrymandering there aren't many seats that delivered less than a 10 point margin for the Republican candidate this year.

[Duke of York]

i don;t think its very likely. Trump base isn't likely going to show up which will give Democrats an inherent advantage. We will get our first test of this in April with local elections in Illinois and Missouri and the spring election in Wisconsin for Supreme Court and local offices.

[freepcrusher]

i don;t think its very likely. Trump base isn't likely going to show up which will give Democrats an inherent advantage. We will get our first test of this in April with local elections in Illinois and Missouri and the spring election in Wisconsin for Supreme Court and local offices.

what i'm worried is that trump is able to turn these people out. If Rs turned out like they normally did in 2018 - dems would have probably come closer to winning the senate (losing only ND) and winning 260 house seats.

[Talleyrand]

If Rs turned out like they normally did in 2018 - dems would have probably come closer to winning the senate (losing only ND) and winning 260 house seats.

Citation needed.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Very likely as I have said we don't need FL or TX but Gubernatorial landslides are very common in Midterms that's why we did well in 22

[freepcrusher]

If Rs turned out like they normally did in 2018 - dems would have probably come closer to winning the senate (losing only ND) and winning 260 house seats.

Citation needed.

the 2018 number of voters were like 90% of 2016. If Rs stayed home at there usual numbers, dems do way better

[Duke of York]

If Rs turned out like they normally did in 2018 - dems would have probably come closer to winning the senate (losing only ND) and winning 260 house seats.

Citation needed.

the 2018 number of voters were like 90% of 2016. If Rs stayed home at there usual numbers, dems do way better

and Republicans won;t be turning out next year or in 26.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The stove-touchers would have to come out of their hibernation and give a crap about supporting Republicans when Trump isn't on the ballot. Not happening.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The stove-touchers would have to come out of their hibernation and give a crap about supporting Republicans when Trump isn't on the ballot. Not happening.

It wasn't the fact that there are so many Trump supporters the Rs came out in mass in 24  to ensure Walz was not getting elected, Walz didn't provide the needed bump Ds needed in a typical VP. That's part of the reason Harris lost

[Zenobiyl]

Extremely low.

(1) Democrats are the higher propensity party, which gives them a big advantage in non-presidential election years

(2) 2022 was influenced by Dobbs, which is not the kind of thing I can see happening for republicans. They have a trifecta and the SCOTUS, so there’s no institution primed to cause massive republican backlash in the next two years.

(3) Democrats are much better at vetting and running disciplined campaigns, especially even if it comes at the price of ideological purity.

(4) Several of Trump’s promises, if put into practice, will likely cause enormous backlash and economic downturn.

(5) Republicans have a trifecta, so any crises or failures that come up will be blamed on them. Their narrow house majority also makes it unlikely they’ll pass much of substance, and could lead to a humiliating defeat like the Obamacare repeal in 2017 or the previous speakership debacle.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Not happening. I think to envision 2026 as being the incumbent GOP equivalent to 2022 ignores the fundamentals that went into that election cycle.

[Compuzled_One]

Spitballing, but I'd say about 5% odds it happens (and I think there's a non-negligible chance the GOP holds the House).

[Vosem]

I think Democrats don't have a large number of pickup opportunities -- the decisive state in the Senate in 2026 will be a state that voted Trump>10%, and among House races decided by under 10% in 2024, Democrats won 46-22. Even if the topline PV result is very good for Democrats, like it was in 2018, I think they will really struggle to take the Senate, and the number of House targets is more limited than is broadly realized.

That said, the current GOP really struggles when it is the incumbent; it is hard to run an anti-establishment campaign if you are running the country. Purely in terms of the 2026 election, I wonder if it might not be really advantageous for the Republicans if Jeffries manages to flip the House before the election actually happens*; they'll be able to run against congressional intransigence and the "deep state". It would be very 'American politics in the 2020s' if the GOP failure to run the House were to rebound in their favor.

*Especially if this happens through party flips rather than special elections; the narrower House majority this time around raises the specter of this happening through 1-3 defections. In the 2023 Speakership battles there were just not enough people who might find this tempting, but in 2025 that might not be true.

[Don't Be A Carrot Vote For Garrett]

A decent chance, given that Democrats are pretty much acting like controlled opposition right now.

[Duke of York]

A decent chance, given that Democrats are pretty much acting like controlled opposition right now.

what do want them to do?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

A decent chance, given that Democrats are pretty much acting like controlled opposition right now.

what do want them to do?

Lol everyone knows that they are gonna pass the tax cuts as soon as Trump gets reelected, they don't have a majority in a H of Congress right now

[Reactionary Libertarian]

I think it’s highly likely they do far worse than they did in 2018. But they should easily flip the House. Probably do better than Republicans did in 2022.

[Duke of York]

I think it’s highly likely they do far worse than they did in 2018. But they should easily flip the House. Probably do better than Republicans did in 2022.

what makes you think that?

[Reactionary Libertarian]

I think it’s highly likely they do far worse than they did in 2018. But they should easily flip the House. Probably do better than Republicans did in 2022.

what makes you think that?

2018 was peak "resistance" and the vibes are different now. More importantly, there are just aren't a ton of left-trending suburban districts left for Dems to pick off from Republicans. As for flipping the House easily- they only need to flip a few seats as the out-of-power party. Should be easy.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Democrats don't have a large number of pickup opportunities -- the decisive state in the Senate in 2026 will be a state that voted Trump>10%, and among House races decided by under 10% in 2024, Democrats won 46-22. Even if the topline PV result is very good for Democrats, like it was in 2018, I think they will really struggle to take the Senate, and the number of House targets is more limited than is broadly realized.

That said, the current GOP really struggles when it is the incumbent; it is hard to run an anti-establishment campaign if you are running the country. Purely in terms of the 2026 election, I wonder if it might not be really advantageous for the Republicans if Jeffries manages to flip the House before the election actually happens*; they'll be able to run against congressional intransigence and the "deep state". It would be very 'American politics in the 2020s' if the GOP failure to run the House were to rebound in their favor.

*Especially if this happens through party flips rather than special elections; the narrower House majority this time around raises the specter of this happening through 1-3 defections. In the 2023 Speakership battles there were just not enough people who might find this tempting, but in 2025 that might not be true.

To add onto this, one thing to consider for US House is it seems like a stretch for Dems to break R gerrymanders in states like TX, GA, FL, ect. In 2018, Clinton 2016 had already broken the TX gerrymander (carrying TX-07 and TX-32), and came close to doing so in GA. However, in 2024 there were no seats in these gerrymanders that were particularly close up or down the ballot - I ould be absolutely shocked if Dems flipped any of the seats "intended" to go for Republicans in TX/FL/NC/GA barring some very extreme circumstances.