GA Senate 2026: Kemp officially OUT (so is MTG)

[Existing in the context]

This was always going to happen when Kemp had so no. For the longest time Georgia had a large GOP bench. The problem is the bench is made up many unspiring candidates and people to extreme for the direction the state is going to. This party is showing in real time just how much they relied a lot of the state's lean. Cause they are very ill-equipped to run in a competitive landscape. If someone like McBath gets back in for Governor. I would not be suprised if Democrats take a majority of the statewide races.

[Not Me, Us]

Kinda crazy that Ossoff managed to bounce back from his House special election loss to being a potential presidential candidate. Assuming he manages to win next year (and if Georgia’s trends continue), this could be the last truly competitive race he has for a long time if he doesn’t go for president.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

So now that Kemp is out, who is the GOP’s best shot?

Chris Carr or Brad Raffensperger, probably.  But any non-Kemp candidate will be a significant underdog to Ossoff.

I think their best candidate is one who can get the MAGA base out but can still be seen as moderate.

Rich McCormick?

[MargieCat]

So now that Kemp is out, who is the GOP’s best shot?

Chris Carr or Brad Raffensperger, probably.  But any non-Kemp candidate will be a significant underdog to Ossoff.

I think their best candidate is one who can get the MAGA base out but can still be seen as moderate.

Rich McCormick?

McCormick wouldn't be the worst.

He endorsed DeSantis for president, but I don't even think Trump cares anymore at this point. He probably knows whoever gets the nomination is a sacrificial lamb.

There's also thing thing with Beth Van Duyne.

[Storr]

So now that Kemp is out, who is the GOP’s best shot?

Probably some Rick Scott or Ron Johnson type from the business world wealthy enough to self-fund. I don't think any of the current GOP Representatives in Georgia are good or even replacement level potential Senate recruits.

[doc gerritcole]

So now that Kemp is out, who is the GOP’s best shot?

Probably some Rick Scott or Ron Johnson type from the business world wealthy enough to self-fund. I don't think any of the current GOP Representatives in Georgia are good or even replacement level potential Senate recruits.

Buddy Carter wants to run

[MargieCat]

So now that Kemp is out, who is the GOP’s best shot?

Probably some Rick Scott or Ron Johnson type from the business world wealthy enough to self-fund. I don't think any of the current GOP Representatives in Georgia are good or even replacement level potential Senate recruits.

That's what David Perdue was originally. A rich political outsider, although he did come from a political family. And Kelly Loeffler was as well. She was talked about as a nominee in 2014, but she didn't end up running.

Unfortunately, gerrymandering solid red seats makes for lousy Republicans who don't know how to run a competitive race. And post-2016, Republican primary voters only care about who has the Trump endorsement. Although Mike Collins and Rich McCormick did both defeat Trump-back opponents in their primaries. Although those Trump-backed opponents were actually more moderate (Jake Evans and Vernon Jones).

[Spectator]

McCormick doesn’t have his pension yet. Doubt he runs.

[MargieCat]

I wonder if Jake Evans (who Trump endorsed but lost his primary to McCormick) or his father Randy Evans (Former Ambassador to Luxembourg in the first Trump administration) run for anything.

There's also former Agriculture commissioner Gary Black, Former State Rep Josh Clark, Kelvin King, and Latham Saddler.

They all ran but lost the primary to Herschel Walker in 2022.

[Mr. Smith]

Return of Jack Kingston?

[South Dakota Democrat]

My baseline is around Ossoff+5 at this point.  Could go lower given a competent R campaign or higher if the nominee is MTG.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Apparently Trump wants Brian Jack (GA-03) to run?

[MargieCat]

Apparently Trump wants Brian Jack (GA-03) to run?

That was already mentioned two pages ago.

[Existing in the context]

A random choice but I guess he is young. Not sure how far he goes with such a low profile if one of the well know candidates run.

[MargieCat]

A random choice but I guess he is young. Not sure how far he goes with such a low profile if one of the well know candidates run.

He served in the Trump administration and worked at AIPAC and the RNC. So he probably has access to major donors.

If Trump wants him to be the nominee, he will likely win the primary.

However, I think he (or anyone the GOP will nominate) is likely to be a sacrificial lamb against Ossoff.

And the same against Warnock in 2028.

[DaleCooper]

It's hard to imagine when Republicans will be favored to win a Senate seat here again now that Kemp is out. Ossoff seems heavily favored. If even Raffensperg can't pull together favorable numbers against him then I can't imagine a Trump-endorsed freakshow candidate doing well.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

A random choice but I guess he is young. Not sure how far he goes with such a low profile if one of the well know candidates run.

He served in the Trump administration and worked at AIPAC and the RNC. So he probably has access to major donors.

If Trump wants him to be the nominee, he will likely win the primary.

However, I think he (or anyone the GOP will nominate) is likely to be a sacrificial lamb against Ossoff.

And the same against Warnock in 2028.

Any (non-MTG) R will probably get at least 47-48% of the vote considering that Georgia is a polarized state. From that point on, its tricky but there does exist a path to getting to 50 depending on other factors like spending or how the governor race goes. Its much more difficult without Kemp, but I wouldn't say sacrificial lamb. If MTG isn't nominated Rs odds probably go from almost 0 to around 35%ish.

[President Johnson]

Kemp is officially out

Congrats, Jon Ossoff!

[Seahawks Fanatic]

This was always going to happen when Kemp had so no. For the longest time Georgia had a large GOP bench. The problem is the bench is made up many unspiring candidates and people to extreme for the direction the state is going to. This party is showing in real time just how much they relied a lot of the state's lean. Cause they are very ill-equipped to run in a competitive landscape. If someone like McBath gets back in for Governor. I would not be suprised if Democrats take a majority of the statewide races.

That's a big IF McBath gets back into the gubernatorial race. I just don't see her doing it for obvious reasons.

[GAinDC]

The biggest challenge for R’s in this race now will be name ID. Ossoff is a household name in Georgia, and all the other potential challengers are no-names — except MTG.

[wbrocks67]

It's hard to imagine when Republicans will be favored to win a Senate seat here again now that Kemp is out. Ossoff seems heavily favored. If even Raffensperg can't pull together favorable numbers against him then I can't imagine a Trump-endorsed freakshow candidate doing well.

This - I don't see why Raffensberger would jump in if Kemp didn't even do it.

[wbrocks67]

This decision sets up both Ossoff and Kemp as early 2028 frontrunners.

I see both as VP picks. I can see Kemp as a running mate for Vance to add more governing experience. Ossoff might be a great Veep pick for Harris or any non-white guy Dem nominee.

Kemp won’t see a national ticket. He is not what the MAGA base is looking for anymore, nor would Trump ever bless him on a ticket.

Ossoff I highly doubt. For starters, there’d need to be a D Governor. And even in that instance, there’s a good chance that a white man like Shapiro is already on the ticket. Warnock might make sense, but I think he’ll run for reelection rather than risk splintering the black vote in the primary with Moore or something.

I think some of you need to stop parroting this. If Ossoff is going to run, he's going run regardless of whether there is a D governor or not. That's not going to prevent him from running. You're all acting like he literally CAN'T if there is an R governor rather than just a choice.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not unexpected that Kemp has bowed out. That's good news for Dems. Still, Ossoff would be foolish to take it for granted. Still, he's definitely favored now.

[Not Me, Us]

This decision sets up both Ossoff and Kemp as early 2028 frontrunners.

I see both as VP picks. I can see Kemp as a running mate for Vance to add more governing experience. Ossoff might be a great Veep pick for Harris or any non-white guy Dem nominee.

Kemp won’t see a national ticket. He is not what the MAGA base is looking for anymore, nor would Trump ever bless him on a ticket.

Ossoff I highly doubt. For starters, there’d need to be a D Governor. And even in that instance, there’s a good chance that a white man like Shapiro is already on the ticket. Warnock might make sense, but I think he’ll run for reelection rather than risk splintering the black vote in the primary with Moore or something.

I think some of you need to stop parroting this. If Ossoff is going to run, he's going run regardless of whether there is a D governor or not. That's not going to prevent him from running. You're all acting like he literally CAN'T if there is an R governor rather than just a choice.

Obviously he could still run if he wanted to, but he should definitely take it into consideration. He’s near the top of my list for 2028, but I won’t vote for him under any circumstances if a Republican gets to appoint his replacement, and I’m sure I’m not the only potential supporter who feels that way.

[Skill and Chance]

This decision sets up both Ossoff and Kemp as early 2028 frontrunners.

How in the world does a Republican who publicly criticized Trump post-2020 become a primary frontrunner in 2028?!