GA Senate 2026: Kemp officially OUT (so is MTG)

[GAinDC]

I don't think MTG runs for senate. Even the craziest people value job security. Why would she give up her safe house seat for a senate race that is a toss up at best for her? GA's 14th district is one of the reddest in the nation. She got 75% in 2020

Like many Trump syncophants, she has delusions of grandeur and believes extreme MAGA candidates would always win if not for the "fraud"

[MargieCat]

So Trump wants Brian Jack, and the listed as potential nominees on Wikipedia are Mike Collins, Buddy Carter, Rich McCormick, and Marjorie Trailer Queen.

While I doubt all of them run, this could have big implications for the house delegation.

And in two years there will be a dash to be the sacrificial lamb against Raphael Warnock in 2028.

[GAinDC]

He probably realizes it will be harder for him than youd think on paper.

Though id suspect he could narrowly squek by ossof hypothetically.

The trend line was against him and his lead was pretty narrow given his favorables. Ossoff would've taken the lead next summer and win without a runoff.

This is what I suspected from the start. I had a lot of conversations on here and with my family and friends back in GA who thought Kemp would easily win, and many thought I was totally wrong to suggest otherwise.

But there have been some red flags for Kemp for a few months now; even with sky high approval ratings, he could never manage a consistent lead over 50%, and it has continued to narrow. To me that showed that the goodwill he received from voters as Gov wouldn't necessarily translate to a Senate race.

There was a good chance that many of his own voters would say, "we loved you as Gov, but we don't want you in DC."

And, even though I disagree with him on most issues and really don't like the way he ran his first campaign, he seems like a good person with some character. I just don't think he would have had the heart to go on the campaign trail and say good things about Trump and his agenda that he doesn't actually believe. It would have fallen flat.

That said, I am not ready to pop the champagne for Ossoff yet. Trump still won the state last year, and it's pretty inelastic, so I expect the polls to tighten as we get closer to the race. I still think Ossoff is likely to win, but I don't think it will be a cakewalk.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Called it.

[Pollster]

I don't think MTG runs for senate. Even the craziest people value job security. Why would she give up her safe house seat for a senate race that is a toss up at best for her? GA's 14th district is one of the reddest in the nation. She got 75% in 2020

Come 2026, Greene will have served >5 years in the House, meaning she will receive her Congressional pension regardless of how many more years she serves.

[Spectator]

I don't think MTG runs for senate. Even the craziest people value job security. Why would she give up her safe house seat for a senate race that is a toss up at best for her? GA's 14th district is one of the reddest in the nation. She got 75% in 2020

Come 2026, Greene will have served >5 years in the House, meaning she will receive her Congressional pension regardless of how many more years she serves.

There is a big opening for her in a primary. No one else has the stature to beat her if Trumpworld backs her.

[Seahawks Fanatic]

Called it.

At least Kemp ends his political career with (4-1) in statewide elections.

[DrScholl]

Running interference for Trump for two years was hardly an appealing prospect and that's all Kemp would have been running to do.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't think MTG runs for senate. Even the craziest people value job security. Why would she give up her safe house seat for a senate race that is a toss up at best for her? GA's 14th district is one of the reddest in the nation. She got 75% in 2020

Come 2026, Greene will have served >5 years in the House, meaning she will receive her Congressional pension regardless of how many more years she serves.

Yeah, consider it a glorified retirement tour from the house for MTG rather than a serious attempt to beat Ossoff. Be on the lookout for people from the 2020 class like Lauren Boebert, Nancy Mace, and Victoria Spartz to possibly call it quits after 2026 too.

[GAinDC]

So now that Kemp is out, who is the GOP’s best shot?

[Pericles]

Running interference for Trump for two years was hardly an appealing prospect and that's all Kemp would have been running to do.

Yes, asides from often facing challenging elections, Republicans have been losing out on good candidates being deterred by Congress simply being an unappealing workplace.

[Horus]

Tossup -> Lean D

[Samof94]

Tossup -> Lean D

Georgia in 2026 is basically Virginia in 2006. 2024 might be the last time the Elephants in the state for a while.

[wbrocks67]

Fantastic news. Ossoff should cruise to re-election now, which means he will also be in good position to run for President in 2028.

Only if Democrats win the governor race in 2026

Huh? What does that have to do with Ossoff running in 2028?

It has pretty much everything to do with it, given the Senate seat.

Yeah I don't think that's going to prevent Ossoff from running, nor should it.

[GAinDC]

Ossoff has been pretty lucky. He was saved by the runoff rule in 2020 and next year he gets to run in a Trump midterm without Kemp.

[Spectator]

Tossup -> Lean D

Yeah, maybe even Likely D for most potential nominees. MTG turns it into a safe D, 15+ point blowout that wipes out the statewide slate and possibly a legislative chamber.

[Lief 🗽]

This decision sets up both Ossoff and Kemp as early 2028 frontrunners.

[NeederNodder]

This decision sets up both Ossoff and Kemp as early 2028 frontrunners.

I see both as VP picks. I can see Kemp as a running mate for Vance to add more governing experience. Ossoff might be a great Veep pick for Harris or any non-white guy Dem nominee.

[Spectator]

This decision sets up both Ossoff and Kemp as early 2028 frontrunners.

I see both as VP picks. I can see Kemp as a running mate for Vance to add more governing experience. Ossoff might be a great Veep pick for Harris or any non-white guy Dem nominee.

Kemp won’t see a national ticket. He is not what the MAGA base is looking for anymore, nor would Trump ever bless him on a ticket.

Ossoff I highly doubt. For starters, there’d need to be a D Governor. And even in that instance, there’s a good chance that a white man like Shapiro is already on the ticket. Warnock might make sense, but I think he’ll run for reelection rather than risk splintering the black vote in the primary with Moore or something.

[Spectator]

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-georgia-governor-senate/amp/

Pls let her run pls let her run pls let her run

[GAinDC]

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-georgia-governor-senate/amp/

Pls let her run pls let her run pls let her run

Part of me wants her to run for the laughs

But then if she somehow won it wouldn’t be so funny.

Then again, it could be a Dem blowout and I’d get to see Ossoff win places no Dem has won before

[GeorgiaModerate]

So now that Kemp is out, who is the GOP’s best shot?

Chris Carr or Brad Raffensperger, probably.  But any non-Kemp candidate will be a significant underdog to Ossoff.

[GAinDC]

So now that Kemp is out, who is the GOP’s best shot?

Chris Carr or Brad Raffensperger, probably.  But any non-Kemp candidate will be a significant underdog to Ossoff.

I think their best candidate is one who can get the MAGA base out but can still be seen as moderate.

[MargieCat]

Jon Ossoff was born February 16, 1987

Brian Jack was born February 17, 1988

[Spectator]

So now that Kemp is out, who is the GOP’s best shot?

Chris Carr or Brad Raffensperger, probably.  But any non-Kemp candidate will be a significant underdog to Ossoff.

Raffensperger would make this Lean D, most others Likely D (except MTG). I don’t see a path to his getting the nomination besides Trumpworld for whatever reason backing him. Which they won’t.