GA Senate 2026: Kemp officially OUT (so is MTG)

[Steve from Lambeth]

AJC article this morning on Brian Kemp and the Senate race: https://www.ajc.com/politics/politically-georgia/brian-kemp-turns-focus-to-2026-as-jon-ossoff-awaits-a-gop-challenger/CDP35JURHVBKVFN5AQU2PK3UVU/

It sounds like Kemp is in no hurry to reach a decision.

Paywalled. Any key quotes?

At least you only have to pay to read the article - the AJC has been completely off-limits to us Euros for the last seven years

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC article this morning on Brian Kemp and the Senate race: https://www.ajc.com/politics/politically-georgia/brian-kemp-turns-focus-to-2026-as-jon-ossoff-awaits-a-gop-challenger/CDP35JURHVBKVFN5AQU2PK3UVU/

It sounds like Kemp is in no hurry to reach a decision.

Paywalled. Any key quotes?

At least you only have to pay to read the article - the AJC has been completely off-limits to us Euros for the last seven years

Really?  Why?

[Steve from Lambeth]

AJC article this morning on Brian Kemp and the Senate race: https://www.ajc.com/politics/politically-georgia/brian-kemp-turns-focus-to-2026-as-jon-ossoff-awaits-a-gop-challenger/CDP35JURHVBKVFN5AQU2PK3UVU/

It sounds like Kemp is in no hurry to reach a decision.

Paywalled. Any key quotes?

At least you only have to pay to read the article - the AJC has been completely off-limits to us Euros for the last seven years

Really?  Why?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Data_Protection_Regulation

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult has Ossoff job approval at 52/30 for Q1 2025

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1910415786025365558

Pretty sure that's the highest it's ever been

[TheMattMan]

I just don't buy the idea of Kemp as this s-tier politician who should be favored to beat Ossoff. The trends in Georgia during 2018 just weren't there yet for Dems, and Abrams completely tanked herself as a candidate between 2018 and 2022 with her actions.

The trends in Georgia have gotten even worse for the GOP since 2022, Ossoff as an incumbent is just a far stronger candidate than even 2018 Abrams, and the 2026 environment is almost certainly going to be just as bad, if not worse than 2018.

Kemp seems like a good party soldier and might do the race in spite of this, but if he has even the slightest inkling of running for president in the future, anybody who cares about his personal ambitions would be advising him against going into this race. He would basically need to run a perfect campaign or need Ossoff to slip up in order to win, and even then, it might not be enough if the environment for the GOP is as bad as I think it's going to be.

[Existing in the context]

Morning Consult has Ossoff job approval at 52/30 for Q1 2025

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1910415786025365558

Pretty sure that's the highest it's ever been

lmao and people act like Tillis some unbeatable titan.

[GAinDC]

Morning Consult has Ossoff job approval at 52/30 for Q1 2025

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1910415786025365558

Pretty sure that's the highest it's ever been

wow -- that's genuinely impressive. I wonder why it has spiked. He did a rally a few weeks ago, but hasn't really gotten into campaign mode otherwise

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Morning Consult has Ossoff job approval at 52/30 for Q1 2025

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1910415786025365558

Pretty sure that's the highest it's ever been

wow -- that's genuinely impressive. I wonder why it has spiked. He did a rally a few weeks ago, but hasn't really gotten into campaign mode otherwise

It's a good start for him in a state as polarized as GA.

[GAinDC]

Morning Consult has Ossoff job approval at 52/30 for Q1 2025

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1910415786025365558

Pretty sure that's the highest it's ever been

wow -- that's genuinely impressive. I wonder why it has spiked. He did a rally a few weeks ago, but hasn't really gotten into campaign mode otherwise

It's a good start for him in a state as polarized as GA.

that's what I'm saying! According to this map, Georgia's senators have the highest approvals out of all the big 7 swing states.

https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/senator-approval-ratings

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Morning Consult has Ossoff job approval at 52/30 for Q1 2025

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1910415786025365558

Pretty sure that's the highest it's ever been

wow -- that's genuinely impressive. I wonder why it has spiked. He did a rally a few weeks ago, but hasn't really gotten into campaign mode otherwise

It's a good start for him in a state as polarized as GA.

that's what I'm saying! According to this map, Georgia's senators have the highest approvals out of all the big 7 swing states.

Great news.
I hope things stay that way. We need both of those Senate seats locked down.

[GAinDC]

Morning Consult has Ossoff job approval at 52/30 for Q1 2025

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1910415786025365558

Pretty sure that's the highest it's ever been

wow -- that's genuinely impressive. I wonder why it has spiked. He did a rally a few weeks ago, but hasn't really gotten into campaign mode otherwise

It's a good start for him in a state as polarized as GA.

that's what I'm saying! According to this map, Georgia's senators have the highest approvals out of all the big 7 swing states.

Great news.
I hope things stay that way. We need both of those Senate seats locked down.

Thankfully Ossoff is entering what is likely to be a good cycle for Dems, and Warnock has his seat until 2028.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Morning Consult has Ossoff job approval at 52/30 for Q1 2025

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1910415786025365558

Pretty sure that's the highest it's ever been

wow -- that's genuinely impressive. I wonder why it has spiked. He did a rally a few weeks ago, but hasn't really gotten into campaign mode otherwise

It's a good start for him in a state as polarized as GA.

that's what I'm saying! According to this map, Georgia's senators have the highest approvals out of all the big 7 swing states.

Great news.
I hope things stay that way. We need both of those Senate seats locked down.

Thankfully Ossoff is entering what is likely to be a good cycle for Dems, and Warnock has his seat until 2028.

And once those seats are likely won in 2026 and 2028, we have both of those seats for certain until at least 2033.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just don't buy the idea of Kemp as this s-tier politician who should be favored to beat Ossoff. The trends in Georgia during 2018 just weren't there yet for Dems, and Abrams completely tanked herself as a candidate between 2018 and 2022 with her actions.

The trends in Georgia have gotten even worse for the GOP since 2022, Ossoff as an incumbent is just a far stronger candidate than even 2018 Abrams, and the 2026 environment is almost certainly going to be just as bad, if not worse than 2018.

Kemp seems like a good party soldier and might do the race in spite of this, but if he has even the slightest inkling of running for president in the future, anybody who cares about his personal ambitions would be advising him against going into this race. He would basically need to run a perfect campaign or need Ossoff to slip up in order to win, and even then, it might not be enough if the environment for the GOP is as bad as I think it's going to be.

I second this - Kemp would definitely be better than nearly any other R but not sure he makes this Lean R, especially because Ossoff is a decent incumbent in his own right. I will say though is I'm not sure it's fair to try and equate Kemp 2018 to Kemp today electorally - he's definitely gone a generic R/underperformer to overperformer.

Then again, multiple Georgia posters have disagreed with me so maybe they have a reading on the vibes down there that I just don't have.

[TheMattMan]

I just don't buy the idea of Kemp as this s-tier politician who should be favored to beat Ossoff. The trends in Georgia during 2018 just weren't there yet for Dems, and Abrams completely tanked herself as a candidate between 2018 and 2022 with her actions.

The trends in Georgia have gotten even worse for the GOP since 2022, Ossoff as an incumbent is just a far stronger candidate than even 2018 Abrams, and the 2026 environment is almost certainly going to be just as bad, if not worse than 2018.

Kemp seems like a good party soldier and might do the race in spite of this, but if he has even the slightest inkling of running for president in the future, anybody who cares about his personal ambitions would be advising him against going into this race. He would basically need to run a perfect campaign or need Ossoff to slip up in order to win, and even then, it might not be enough if the environment for the GOP is as bad as I think it's going to be.

I second this - Kemp would definitely be better than nearly any other R but not sure he makes this Lean R, especially because Ossoff is a decent incumbent in his own right. I will say though is I'm not sure it's fair to try and equate Kemp 2018 to Kemp today electorally - he's definitely gone a generic R/underperformer to overperformer.

Then again, multiple Georgia posters have disagreed with me so maybe they have a reading on the vibes down there that I just don't have.

I don't doubt that Kemp has popularity in Georgia and he would absolutely make the race close - he's gotten to play the adult in the room for the past 4 years and has largely been able to avoid national dynamics aside from 2020. Also, normal GOP candidates did strongly benefit from the national environment in 2022 that the Trump knockoffs failed to capitalize on.

However, the polls ignore the fact that there's an actual campaign to run, and when you're going for the Senate, you cannot hide from the way you will have to explain to voters how your votes will impact Trump's policies, which are already unpopular. I don't buy that there is a middle lane for Kemp to run in what will be possibly the most nationalized race in the country next year. Once his numbers fall towards partisan lines, then the makeup of the electorate takes care of the rest.

[Minnesota Mike]

Ossoff's campaign out of the gate raising and spending big money.

https://x.com/rpyers/status/1912276622683828331

Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff raised $11.18 million in the first three months of 2025, burned $5.09 million, and increased his cash on hand from $5 million to $11 million.

[GAinDC]

Ossoff's campaign out of the gate raising and spending big money.

https://x.com/rpyers/status/1912276622683828331

Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff raised $11.18 million in the first three months of 2025, burned $5.09 million, and increased his cash on hand from $5 million to $11 million.

a great show of strength. The longer Kemp sits on the fence, the greater Ossoff's fundraising advantage and his ability to define the race

[wbrocks67]

Honestly it probably wouldn't hurt for Ossoff to start running a few positive ads here and there just to start engraining it in peoples minds

[GAinDC]

Expect R’s to pick up on this as a line of attack

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1912498567039631554

[Spectator]

Not convinced people care much about that kind of stuff.

[GAinDC]

Not convinced people care much about that kind of stuff.

Don’t all the high profile congressional races have lots of out of state donors? (For R and D candidates). it’s just the nature of the elections being important for control of congress.

[Storr]

Not convinced people care much about that kind of stuff.

Even if they did, Dems can just point to the many out of state donors who will have given money to whoever the GOP nominee ends up being.

[MargieCat]

Scott picked up another primary challenger.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1912450387644137925

[These birds not meant to fly alone]

Not convinced people care much about that kind of stuff.

This. Elon Musk literally bribed voters in Wisconsin a few weeks ago and hardly anyone gave a sh*t.

[SnowLabrador]

Not convinced people care much about that kind of stuff.

This. Elon Musk literally bribed voters in Wisconsin a few weeks ago and hardly anyone gave a sh*t.

Scandals only matter when they impact Democrats.

[Spectator]

Not convinced people care much about that kind of stuff.

This. Elon Musk literally bribed voters in Wisconsin a few weeks ago and hardly anyone gave a sh*t.

Scandals only matter when they impact Democrats.

Must be why we have Governor Mark Robinson (R-NC) like you predicted.