Could 2026 see more Republican Senators go down to primary challenges than usual?

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I count 4 Republicans as more likely than not to lose a primary in the 2026 Elections personally: Collins in Maine, Tillis in North Carolina, Cassidy in Louisiana, and Cornyn in Texas. That would be a much larger number than usual. Could it happen.

[Tekken_Guy]

I count 4 Republicans as more likely than not to lose a primary in the 2026 Elections personally: Collins in Maine, Tillis in North Carolina, Cassidy in Louisiana, and Cornyn in Texas. That would be a much larger number than usual. Could it happen.

Cassidy will be the only one who loses, more likely than not.

[Zenobiyl]

Collins and Cornyn will be fine, the other two go down though.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I won't be too sure about TX, Paxton is beloved in TX that's why he was acquitted

[Tekken_Guy]

Collins and Cornyn will be fine, the other two go down though.

Don't see Tillis losing, either.

[New World Man]

Cassidy may as well retire. Maybe a candidate Higgins like Graves runs instead in the non crazy lane.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Collins and Cornyn will be fine, the other two go down though.

Don't see Tillis losing, either.

Heavily dependent on if Lara Trump runs, she's beating him in polls just because of the name alone.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Collins ftr has placed the same vote that Cassidy placed that people are calling him DOA for, along with several other votes against her party that Cassidy was a team player on, and the notion that she can run on an electability message in the primary to win it is silly considering that we have so many examples to show that this never moves Republican primary voters, and having multiple challengers would not save her either, given RCV.

[henster]

If Durbin and Markey don't retire we could see some more action on the Dem side for once. Going by how some eager House dems have been in challenging the old guard for committee chairs I see the dam breaking on formal primaries against incumbents.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cassidy is DOA in a primary.

Tillis could lose, but there's no real certainty of it.

[New World Man]

Low key,Lindsey Graham.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Cornyn could go down to Paxton, he Paxton is beloved in TX

[Zenobiyl]

Collins ftr has placed the same vote that Cassidy placed that people are calling him DOA for, along with several other votes against her party that Cassidy was a team player on, and the notion that she can run on an electability message in the primary to win it is silly considering that we have so many examples to show that this never moves Republican primary voters, and having multiple challengers would not save her either, given RCV.

Collins will get unanimous support from republican officeholders and a huge warchest, not to mention Trump’s endorsement or at very least neutrality. Collins is their only shot to hold that seat, and leadership will be looking to smite any MAGA candidate that tries to ruin it.

[Don't Tread on Me]

Collins and Cornyn will be fine, the other two go down though.

Do you mean Tillis? The only person I could see challenging him is Robinson and I don't think he'd defeat him in a primary as he'd be DOA against whoever the Dems run.

[Zenobiyl]

Collins and Cornyn will be fine, the other two go down though.

Do you mean Tillis? The only person I could see challenging him is Robinson and I don't think he'd defeat him in a primary as he'd be DOA against whoever the Dems run.

Bishop, Harris, Forest, Causey, Edwards. Tillis is a very weak candidate, and I don’t see him avoiding a serious challenger.

[Trans Socialist Democrat]

Yeah, Cassidy is cooked. Tillis is probably fine if he even wants to run again, but he could be in for a scare. Collins and Cornyn will definitely be fine.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Collins ftr has placed the same vote that Cassidy placed that people are calling him DOA for, along with several other votes against her party that Cassidy was a team player on, and the notion that she can run on an electability message in the primary to win it is silly considering that we have so many examples to show that this never moves Republican primary voters, and having multiple challengers would not save her either, given RCV.

Collins will get unanimous support from republican officeholders and a huge warchest, not to mention Trump’s endorsement or at very least neutrality. Collins is their only shot to hold that seat, and leadership will be looking to smite any MAGA candidate that tries to ruin it.

Trump himself has shown a number of times that he will punish what he considers to be disloyalty from Republican electeds even if it helps Democrats win the general. He is very likely to endorse a primary to Collins. Like keep in mind that he decided to nuke Charlie Bakers bid for a 3rd term as Governor in Massachusetts.

[Zenobiyl]

Collins ftr has placed the same vote that Cassidy placed that people are calling him DOA for, along with several other votes against her party that Cassidy was a team player on, and the notion that she can run on an electability message in the primary to win it is silly considering that we have so many examples to show that this never moves Republican primary voters, and having multiple challengers would not save her either, given RCV.

Collins will get unanimous support from republican officeholders and a huge warchest, not to mention Trump’s endorsement or at very least neutrality. Collins is their only shot to hold that seat, and leadership will be looking to smite any MAGA candidate that tries to ruin it.

Trump himself has shown a number of times that he will punish what he considers to be disloyalty from Republican electeds even if it helps Democrats win the general. He is very likely to endorse a primary to Collins. Like keep in mind that he decided to nuke Charlie Bakers bid for a 3rd term as Governor in Massachusetts.

True, but a governor office isn’t as directly important to Trump as a senate seat. I’m especially thinking about how he stayed out of Valadao’s race, an impeachment republican, as a sign that he’s willing to be pragmatic when it comes to candidates who can win otherwise unwinnable races.

[Zenobiyl]

Another thing to keep in mind is that Trump hates endorsing losers and being wrong, as seen by his endorsement swap from Mo Brooks and double-endorsement in Missouri in 2022. If polls show Collins as the only candidate winning, which they will, odds are good Trump will back her or stay out so as to avoid having egg on his face.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I know I am right about Paxton def Cornyn

[New World Man]

Tillis is very vulnerable. He voted to convict and NC has plenty of GOP officeholders who could challenge him. Collins,I don't think Maine has a really credible challenger who could go against her. Cornyn would be favored but Paxton probably really has no other path to a higher office with Abbott running for reelection.

[Zenobiyl]

Tillis is very vulnerable. He voted to convict and NC has plenty of GOP officeholders who could challenge him. Collins,I don't think Maine has a really credible challenger who could go against her. Cornyn would be favored but Paxton probably really has no other path to a higher office with Abbott running for reelection.

You’re thinking of senator Burr, who retired. Tillis voted no on impeachment.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I disagree with my fellow Atlas users Paxton is not hated he was acquitted of all charges he is hated outside of TX, but is Cornyn like Graham they are established Rs but they can go down in a primary

[CentristRepublican]

More than usual, sure, seeing as no senator has been successfully primaried (from either party) since 2012, so recently the average has been 0.

90% chance Cassidy will go down if he runs for reelection. There may be a chance he sees the writing on the wall and retires like Burr did - he'd be 69, so he's not that young even by Senate standards.

Maybe about a 40-50% chance Tillis goes down, depends on who and how many people run against him (because there's no runoffs in NC primaries, there's a real chance that if the anti-Tillis vote splinters, he pulls through - even Maddy Boy came close to winning renomination with less than one-third of the vote bc the anti-Cawthorn vote was divided).

I count 4 Republicans as more likely than not to lose a primary in the 2026 Elections personally: Collins in Maine, Tillis in North Carolina, Cassidy in Louisiana, and Cornyn in Texas. That would be a much larger number than usual. Could it happen.

Collins might get a bit of a scare but she'll survive - if necessary the NRSC and Thune will make sure of it. Who'd run against her, anyway? It's not as if there's a ton of high-profile ME Republicans...LePage, maybe, but I feel like he's too polarizing on the whole.

And Cornyn will be absolutely fine. TX is too big a state for an insurgent to strike, unless they already have some sort of statewide profile...Abbott theoretically could pass on a fourth term (where he himself would be at real risk of a primary) to challenge Cornyn, but I don't see it. Among the other statewide officeholders that come to mind, I don't see Patrick making it, and Paxton is absolutely too scandal-ridden for it to work.

Collins and Cornyn will be fine, the other two go down though. Don't see Tillis losing, either.

Heavily dependent on if Lara Trump runs, she's beating him in polls just because of the name alone.

Weren't some MAGAtards pushing for her to be appointed to Rubio's seat? Where tf does she even live? Or is she just considered some omnipresent identity that can run wherever tf she pleases bc of her last name?