2 years out - Which gerrymanders will break in 2026?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm excluding gerrymanders from the list that have already been broken. Breaking a gerrymander just means a seat intended to go for the majority party is won the by minority. So Republicans winning seats like NC-01 or OH-09 wouldn't count because they drew those maps.

On this list one of the best chances is probably Iowa given that Democrats 2 if not 3 targets and Congressional Rs performance was pretty underwhelming given the national circumstances.

However, outside that I struggle to see many others flipping.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Iowa is not a gerrymander by any measure.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Iowa is not a gerrymander by any measure.

Yeah it's an edge case - Republicans rejected the original map that would've ha a D-leaning seat in eastern IA and the map they map we ended up with was as close to as good as Republicans could go given the County and compactness rules. I'd say it's a gerrymander but only a light one (like the current NY map).

[Tekken_Guy]

Arkansas - No.

Florida - Only real possibility is Luna’s seat. Others could get close (Lee, Mills, Bean) but unlikely to actually flip.

Georgia - No.

Illinois - Not in 2026, maybe in a more R year.

Iowa - Both Miller-Meeks and Nunn are highly vulnerable. Hinson’s seat is a top target if she runs for higher office and there’s an outside shot she loses in a wave if she seeks re-election.

Kentucky - Only possibility is Barr’s seat if he runs for Senate. Otherwise, highly unlikely.

Massachusetts - Not this cycle.

Missouri - MO-02 could flip if it’s an open seat with a weak GOP nominee. With Wagner though, probably not.

Nevada - If Lombardo’s having a landslide re-election there’s an outside shot Susie Lee goes down.

New Mexico - Maybe Vasquez will lose if R’s get their act together.

North Carolina - On a good night Dems could make a play at Chuck Edwards.

Ohio - OH-10 without Turner is the best bet for this. Outside shots at 7 and 15 too. Big wild card here is redistricting.

Oklahoma - No.

Rhode Island - Not in 2026 unless Fung runs again.

South Carolina - If Nancy Mace continues to act like a clown? Why the hell not?

Tennessee - Ditto with Andy Ogles.

Texas - Dems should worry more about losing the last two RGV seats.

Utah - Not on the current map, but redistricting could get them a seat.

[Mr.Phips]

Arkansas - No.

Florida - Only real possibility is Luna’s seat. Others could get close (Lee, Mills, Bean) but unlikely to actually flip.

Georgia - No.

Illinois - Not in 2026, maybe in a more R year.

Iowa - Both Miller-Meeks and Nunn are highly vulnerable. Hinson’s seat is a top target if she runs for higher office and there’s an outside shot she loses in a wave if she seeks re-election.

Kentucky - Only possibility is Barr’s seat if he runs for Senate. Otherwise, highly unlikely.

Massachusetts - Not this cycle.

Missouri - MO-02 could flip if it’s an open seat with a weak GOP nominee. With Wagner though, probably not.

Nevada - If Lombardo’s having a landslide re-election there’s an outside shot Susie Lee goes down.

New Mexico - Maybe Vasquez will lose if R’s get their act together.

North Carolina - On a good night Dems could make a play at Chuck Edwards.

Ohio - OH-10 without Turner is the best bet for this. Outside shots at 7 and 15 too. Big wild card here is redistricting.

Oklahoma - No.

Rhode Island - Not in 2026 unless Fung runs again.

South Carolina - If Nancy Mace continues to act like a clown? Why the hell not?

Tennessee - Ditto with Andy Ogles.

Texas - Dems should worry more about losing the last two RGV seats.

Utah - Not on the current map, but redistricting could get them a seat.

It wouldn’t shock me if Mace was the 2018 Boebert of 2026, barely winning.

[Tekken_Guy]

Arkansas - No.

Florida - Only real possibility is Luna’s seat. Others could get close (Lee, Mills, Bean) but unlikely to actually flip.

Georgia - No.

Illinois - Not in 2026, maybe in a more R year.

Iowa - Both Miller-Meeks and Nunn are highly vulnerable. Hinson’s seat is a top target if she runs for higher office and there’s an outside shot she loses in a wave if she seeks re-election.

Kentucky - Only possibility is Barr’s seat if he runs for Senate. Otherwise, highly unlikely.

Massachusetts - Not this cycle.

Missouri - MO-02 could flip if it’s an open seat with a weak GOP nominee. With Wagner though, probably not.

Nevada - If Lombardo’s having a landslide re-election there’s an outside shot Susie Lee goes down.

New Mexico - Maybe Vasquez will lose if R’s get their act together.

North Carolina - On a good night Dems could make a play at Chuck Edwards.

Ohio - OH-10 without Turner is the best bet for this. Outside shots at 7 and 15 too. Big wild card here is redistricting.

Oklahoma - No.

Rhode Island - Not in 2026 unless Fung runs again.

South Carolina - If Nancy Mace continues to act like a clown? Why the hell not?

Tennessee - Ditto with Andy Ogles.

Texas - Dems should worry more about losing the last two RGV seats.

Utah - Not on the current map, but redistricting could get them a seat.

It wouldn’t shock me if Mace was the 2018 Boebert of 2026, barely winning.

It could very well be Boebert herself again. It’s bluer than the district Steve King barely won in 2018 and Trump won it by not much more than Biden won NY-04 in 2020.

[Devils30]

Iowa is not a gerrymander by any measure.

Yeah it's an edge case - Republicans rejected the original map that would've ha a D-leaning seat in eastern IA and the map they map we ended up with was as close to as good as Republicans could go given the County and compactness rules. I'd say it's a gerrymander but only a light one (like the current NY map).

IA isn't at all a gerrymander, if Dems have a half-decent 2026 they likely win 2 of the 4 seats (IA-1 and 3). 3 is always winnable for Dems and 1 involves a weak GOP incumbent.

[Tekken_Guy]

Iowa is not a gerrymander by any measure.

Yeah it's an edge case - Republicans rejected the original map that would've ha a D-leaning seat in eastern IA and the map they map we ended up with was as close to as good as Republicans could go given the County and compactness rules. I'd say it's a gerrymander but only a light one (like the current NY map).

IA isn't at all a gerrymander, if Dems have a half-decent 2026 they likely win 2 of the 4 seats (IA-1 and 3). 3 is always winnable for Dems and 1 involves a weak GOP incumbent.

On a true wave election Dems might also make a play at Hinson's seat. And it's a prime pick-up opportunity in an open seat (maybe she goes statewide in 2026).

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Gerrymandering won't break all we have to do is win 10 seats in the US H and by flipping MI and PA State delegation that gives Ds 225 Seats

[New World Man]

In a bad Dem year I might be worried about IL 6 and 8.

[iceman]

hopefully, Illinois, it's the ugliest map out there

[CentristRepublican]

The Ohio gerrymander is already broken. It was made with the intent of an 11-4 or possibly even a 12-3. Granted, they made OH-13 a little too blue (Harris actually won it in 2024! - albeit by 0.1), but OH-09 at least was supposed to have flipped by now (Thank God for Unbeatable Titan Kaptur).

And gerrymander feels like a slightly extreme way of describing a lot of these. Favorable to the dominant party, sure, but a lot of these are relatively very mild gerrymanders and don't deserve to be lumped in with more egregious cases like TN, UT and IL.]

hopefully, Illinois, it's the ugliest map out there

It held up surprisingly well this year. Both Sorenson and Budzinski - the two 'stolen district' Democrats - won by pretty comfortable margins, especially Budzinski who won by double digits.

[It's Time.]

The Ohio gerrymander is already broken. It was made with the intent of an 11-4 or possibly even a 12-3. Granted, they made OH-13 a little too blue (Harris actually won it in 2024! - albeit by 0.1), but OH-09 at least was supposed to have flipped by now (Thank God for Unbeatable Titan Kaptur).

And gerrymander feels like a slightly extreme way of describing a lot of these. Favorable to the dominant party, sure, but a lot of these are relatively very mild gerrymanders and don't deserve to be lumped in with more egregious cases like TN, UT and IL.]

hopefully, Illinois, it's the ugliest map out there

It held up surprisingly well this year. Both Sorenson and Budzinski - the two 'stolen district' Democrats - won by pretty comfortable margins, especially Budzinski who won by double digits.

Budzinki and Sorenson are strong overperformers so there's no chance the IL gerrymander breaks. No other district could realistically flip.