What was the swing/trend for 2004->2024?

[Linda Van der Hampel]

Two elections with R winners and similar margins countrywide.

I'd be interested to see state swings and trends.

Did anyone of you make maps?

[Linda Van der Hampel]

2000->2024 swing/trends would also be intriguing to see, how states changed since the start of the century/millennium.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the swing map - east/west really stands out. My guess is this is primarily due to rural areas in the eastern half of the US being denser, and so as Republicans have gained in rural areas it's gained them a lot more in the eastern half of the Country.

[oldtimer]

I did make a quick map in 5 point increments.



There is some drop off from the nominees (Dole, Clinton, Gore, Bush) home regions, but otherwise not much change, because by 2004 most of the White realignment had already occured.
The 1988-2016 swing is far more impressive.

SC has the same R+16 in every election from 1988, pitty the polls there are unreliable.

[Pericles]

Here is a 2004-2024 swing map from the partial results. I excluded the congressional districts as those boundaries changed.

Swings under 5% get a 40% shading, 5-10% get 50% shading, and double digits get 60% shading.

The Sunbelt stack was the epicentre of long-term Republican trends except for Minnesota. I did not expect Trump to have done even better than Bush in the Northeast either.

[Linda Van der Hampel]

This is the swing map - east/west really stands out. My guess is this is primarily due to rural areas in the eastern half of the US being denser, and so as Republicans have gained in rural areas it's gained them a lot more in the eastern half of the Country.

Thanks. And the trends in each state?

[Linda Van der Hampel]

I did make a quick map in 5 point increments.



There is some drop off from the nominees (Dole, Clinton, Gore, Bush) home regions, but otherwise not much change, because by 2004 most of the White realignment had already occured.
The 1988-2016 swing is far more impressive.

SC has the same R+16 in every election from 1988, pitty the polls there are unreliable.

Thanks.

Looks like Appalachia swung heavily away from the Ds and the sunbelt states (except FL) swung D. And the upper Pacific too.