Any prospective upcoming freshmen house members ---> Senator in 2026?

[MargieCat]

Sometimes, a single term freshman in the house makes it into the senate.

I believe the most recent ones were Jacky Rosen in 2018 and Tom Cotton in 2014. In both cases, they defeated incumbents. But it could happen in an open-seat as well, with the incumbent party holding the senate seat (or losing it).

Any incoming house freshmen you could see making it into the senate in 2026?

Maybe like Maggie Goodlander could become a senator if Shaheen retires, or Sarah McBride if Chris Coons retires.

[Tekken_Guy]

Sometimes, a single term freshman in the house makes it into the senate.

I believe the most recent ones were Jacky Rosen in 2018 and Tom Cotton in 2014. In both cases, they defeated incumbents. But it could happen in an open-seat as well, with the incumbent party holding the senate seat (or losing it).

Any incoming house freshmen you could see making it into the senate in 2026?

Maybe like Maggie Goodlander could become a senator if Shaheen retires, or Sarah McBride if Chris Coons retires.

Goodlander is unlikely. Pappas likely has right of first refusal to replace Shaheen.

McBride is probably below Carney and Markell, honestly.

[MargieCat]

Sometimes, a single term freshman in the house makes it into the senate.

I believe the most recent ones were Jacky Rosen in 2018 and Tom Cotton in 2014. In both cases, they defeated incumbents. But it could happen in an open-seat as well, with the incumbent party holding the senate seat (or losing it).

Any incoming house freshmen you could see making it into the senate in 2026?

Maybe like Maggie Goodlander could become a senator if Shaheen retires, or Sarah McBride if Chris Coons retires.

Goodlander is unlikely. Pappas likely has right of first refusal to replace Shaheen.

McBride is probably below Carney and Markell, honestly.

I can't think of any that are likely of the current freshmen class.

[Joe Kakistocracy]

Sometimes, a single term freshman in the house makes it into the senate.

I believe the most recent ones were Jacky Rosen in 2018 and Tom Cotton in 2014. In both cases, they defeated incumbents. But it could happen in an open-seat as well, with the incumbent party holding the senate seat (or losing it).

Steve Daines also did this in 2014.

Kirsten Gillibrand and Tim Scott were also appointed to fill vacant Senate seats after serving only one House term, but that probably doesn't count here.

[MargieCat]

Sometimes, a single term freshman in the house makes it into the senate.

I believe the most recent ones were Jacky Rosen in 2018 and Tom Cotton in 2014. In both cases, they defeated incumbents. But it could happen in an open-seat as well, with the incumbent party holding the senate seat (or losing it).

Steve Daines also did this in 2014.

Kirsten Gillibrand and Tim Scott were also appointed to fill vacant Senate seats after serving only one House term, but that probably doesn't count here.

Can you think of any house newbies that could follow this type path?

[Pericles]

Would Vindman be a viable candidate if Warner retired in Virginia? He seems like he'd thrive in a Democratic primary there, but they probably have a deep bench.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Are we certain Peters runs again in Michigan?

[Zenobiyl]

Mark Harris - NC
Tom Barrett - MI

[Talleyrand]

McBride is probably below Carney and Markell, honestly.

Carney and Markell are older than Coons.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Greg Landsman got reelected and if Ryan or Brown doesn't run he will run and win the OH S that's why it's premature to predict a R S for the rest of Decade

[CentristRepublican]

McBride is probably below Carney and Markell, honestly.

Carney and Markell are older than Coons.

Markell in particular is old news atp. He left the governorship 8 years ago. By 2026 it will have been 10 years since left office and nearly 15 since he last ran for something.

[CentristRepublican]

Mark Harris - NC
Tom Barrett - MI

Mark Harris would go down to Cooper and it wouldn't be that close. A sight to behold (I'm envisioning something like 2020-GOV redux).

[MargieCat]

If Gary Peters retired, KMR could potentially succeed him. Although that could be a clown car primary with Stevens, McMorrow, Nessel, Gilchrist, Buttigieg etc. Not sure KMR would be favored in that scenario. I don't see Tom Barrett flipping the seat.

If Tina Smith retires, Kelly Morrison could make a run for her seat. Although I view Angie Craig as more likely.

Merkley is running again, or Maxine Dexter and Janelle Bynum could be two potentials.

Texas Freshman are Brandon Gill, Craig Goldman, Sylvester Turner, and Julie Johnson. Maybe a longshot would be Brandon Gill (extremist) beating Cornyn in a primary and becoming a senator. Or Julie Johnson swinging for the fences and defeating Cornyn (or whoever the GOP puts up). Pretty much a longshot as well.

The only house freshman is Brian Jack, an extreme MAGA. He could defeat Ossoff and become Georgia's junior senator. But I don't see it.

[Tekken_Guy]

Mark Harris - NC
Tom Barrett - MI

Harris is the least viable of the incoming house freshmen in NC by a long-shot, though he’s probably the only one who’d actually bother in a primary against Tillis, aside from maybe McDowell. I think Harrigan/Knott/Moore only go for an open seat.

I don’t see Barrett jumping in so soon but I could see him run against Slotkin in 2030 if he makes it that far.

[MargieCat]

Mark Harris - NC
Tom Barrett - MI

Harris is the least viable of the incoming house freshmen in NC by a long-shot, though he’s probably the only one who’d actually bother in a primary against Tillis, aside from maybe McDowell. I think Harrigan/Knott/Moore only go for an open seat.

I don’t see Barrett jumping in so soon but I could see him run against Slotkin in 2030 if he makes it that far.

That's a big if.

I think he probably goes down in 26.

[Tekken_Guy]

Mark Harris - NC
Tom Barrett - MI

Harris is the least viable of the incoming house freshmen in NC by a long-shot, though he’s probably the only one who’d actually bother in a primary against Tillis, aside from maybe McDowell. I think Harrigan/Knott/Moore only go for an open seat.

I don’t see Barrett jumping in so soon but I could see him run against Slotkin in 2030 if he makes it that far.

That's a big if.

I think he probably goes down in 26.

I don’t think Hertel is running again. He ran 3 points behind Harris. I think Dems go with Sarah Anthony next time.

[MargieCat]

Mark Harris - NC
Tom Barrett - MI

Harris is the least viable of the incoming house freshmen in NC by a long-shot, though he’s probably the only one who’d actually bother in a primary against Tillis, aside from maybe McDowell. I think Harrigan/Knott/Moore only go for an open seat.

I don’t see Barrett jumping in so soon but I could see him run against Slotkin in 2030 if he makes it that far.

That's a big if.

I think he probably goes down in 26.

I don’t think Hertel is running again. He ran 3 points behind Harris. I think Dems go with Sarah Anthony next time.

Possibly.

Another one I could see is Barb Byrum, although she may run for Secretary of State.

[Tekken_Guy]

Mark Harris - NC
Tom Barrett - MI

Harris is the least viable of the incoming house freshmen in NC by a long-shot, though he’s probably the only one who’d actually bother in a primary against Tillis, aside from maybe McDowell. I think Harrigan/Knott/Moore only go for an open seat.

I don’t see Barrett jumping in so soon but I could see him run against Slotkin in 2030 if he makes it that far.

That's a big if.

I think he probably goes down in 26.

I don’t think Hertel is running again. He ran 3 points behind Harris. I think Dems go with Sarah Anthony next time.

Possibly.

Another one I could see is Barb Byrum, although she may run for Secretary of State.

Possibly. Maybe Sam Singh goes for it.

Regardless even if Barrett loses in 2026 he could bounce back in 2028 if it’s a better year for the GOP.

[Flyersfan232]

Mark Harris - NC
Tom Barrett - MI

Harris is the least viable of the incoming house freshmen in NC by a long-shot, though he’s probably the only one who’d actually bother in a primary against Tillis, aside from maybe McDowell. I think Harrigan/Knott/Moore only go for an open seat.

I don’t see Barrett jumping in so soon but I could see him run against Slotkin in 2030 if he makes it that far.

That's a big if.

I think he probably goes down in 26.

he look like the type to run in a rematch in 2028

[Oryxslayer]

Would Vindman be a viable candidate if Warner retired in Virginia? He seems like he'd thrive in a Democratic primary there, but they probably have a deep bench.

Vindman will run for Senate the moment a seat opens up. I currently give him a low chance, perhaps in some ways analogous to Trone's attempt across the Potomac.

However, I don't see the seats potentially opening up until the next time they come around in 2030 and 2032, barring any unforeseen circumstances.