Which D-held senate seats other than GA/MI will R’s target in 2026?

[Tekken_Guy]

A counter thread to the other one.

[Talleyrand]

I think they'll make a serious play for Virginia and New Hampshire if Warner and Shaheen retire. And they'll contest New Mexico and Minnesota whether Lujan and Smith retire or not; both underperformed in 2020.

[UncleSam]

I’d normally say none / maybe one or two based on specific candidates, but with how few competitive seats there are up in general I’ll bet more of these are contested than typically would be.

VA and NH seem like the most likely, Rs have had a weird obsession with trying to be competitive in Virginia for a while. NH is such a weird state that it actually doesn’t seem impossible that it could be competitive with the right candidate, even in an otherwise strong D year.

I don’t expect Rs to pick up any of these though, and at most one of MI / GA (but more likely 0).

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Hampshire and Virginia, if Shaheen or Warner retire, as others said, but that's still probably a stretch. Even with an open seat these will probably be at least lean D.

[UWS]

Likely Virginia if Youngkin runs as Governor Youngkin has 57 % approval and if his LG wins the gubernatorial race next year that will encourage GOP to contest that race; NH too would be a GOP objective with Morse or Chris Sununu, MN and NM too could be targets though less likely to win than GA and MI and if Charlie Baker runs for Senate the GOP will also target MA as a recent poll showed Baker leading Markey by 6 of Baker runs

[2016]

Likely Virginia if Youngkin runs as Governor Youngkin has 57 % approval and if his LG wins the gubernatorial race next year that will encourage GOP to contest that race; NH too would be a GOP objective with Morse or Chris Sununu, MN and NM too could be targets though less likely to win than GA and MI and if Charlie Baker runs for Senate the GOP will also target MA as a recent poll showed Baker leading Markey by 6 of Baker runs

Senator Jeanne Shaheen turns 80 next month. Chris Sununu told FOX NEWS Contributor Paul Steinhauser last month he wouldn't run. However having said that IF Shaheen retires and doesn't seek Re-Election then I absolutely could see Sununu reversing course here. An Open Senate Seat is pretty tempting not to run.

[UWS]

Likely Virginia if Youngkin runs as Governor Youngkin has 57 % approval and if his LG wins the gubernatorial race next year that will encourage GOP to contest that race; NH too would be a GOP objective with Morse or Chris Sununu, MN and NM too could be targets though less likely to win than GA and MI and if Charlie Baker runs for Senate the GOP will also target MA as a recent poll showed Baker leading Markey by 6 of Baker runs

Senator Jeanne Shaheen turns 80 next month. Chris Sununu told FOX NEWS Contributor Paul Steinhauser last month he wouldn't run. However having said that IF Shaheen retires and doesn't seek Re-Election then I absolutely could see Sununu reversing course here. An Open Senate Seat is pretty tempting not to run.

It is what happened with Governor Larry Hogan in MD

[2016]

Likely Virginia if Youngkin runs as Governor Youngkin has 57 % approval and if his LG wins the gubernatorial race next year that will encourage GOP to contest that race; NH too would be a GOP objective with Morse or Chris Sununu, MN and NM too could be targets though less likely to win than GA and MI and if Charlie Baker runs for Senate the GOP will also target MA as a recent poll showed Baker leading Markey by 6 of Baker runs

Senator Jeanne Shaheen turns 80 next month. Chris Sununu told FOX NEWS Contributor Paul Steinhauser last month he wouldn't run. However having said that IF Shaheen retires and doesn't seek Re-Election then I absolutely could see Sununu reversing course here. An Open Senate Seat is pretty tempting not to run.

It is what happened with Governor Larry Hogan in MD

I made a slight mistake, Shaheen turns 78 next month, not 80, but with the Republicans now controlling the Senate there is every chance she might retire having been in NH Politics for nearly 30 years.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

NM and CO, VA, NH and MN are out of reach

[2016]

NM and CO, VA, NH and MN are out of reach

Virginia and New Hampshire are not out of reach if Youngkin and Sununu run.

[Existing in the context]

NM and CO, VA, NH and MN are out of reach

Virginia and New Hampshire are not out of reach if Youngkin and Sununu run.

Sununu probably can make it close if Shaheen retires. I don't think Youngkin can win at all. He barely won against Terry under Biden with favorable turnout. Against Warner in a Trump midterm with a D turnout advantage. Not happening. Yes he a Republican that won in a state widely seen as trending away from the GOP but he's not unbeatable.

[David Hume]

Likely Virginia if Youngkin runs as Governor Youngkin has 57 % approval and if his LG wins the gubernatorial race next year that will encourage GOP to contest that race; NH too would be a GOP objective with Morse or Chris Sununu, MN and NM too could be targets though less likely to win than GA and MI and if Charlie Baker runs for Senate the GOP will also target MA as a recent poll showed Baker leading Markey by 6 of Baker runs

Baker should have run in 2022 if he is interested in the senate. 2026 would be Hogan 2024.

[here2view]

Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Virginia.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’d normally say none / maybe one or two based on specific candidates, but with how few competitive seats there are up in general I’ll bet more of these are contested than typically would be.

VA and NH seem like the most likely, Rs have had a weird obsession with trying to be competitive in Virginia for a while. NH is such a weird state that it actually doesn’t seem impossible that it could be competitive with the right candidate, even in an otherwise strong D year.

I don’t expect Rs to pick up any of these though, and at most one of MI / GA (but more likely 0).

VA is definitely because of their relative success at the state level, but federally they always end up disappointed. Heck, even Harris's 6% win was better than many were expecting in the context of the national environment.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Forget TX and FL obviously we can target Ernst in IA but no one has announced

[2016]

I’d normally say none / maybe one or two based on specific candidates, but with how few competitive seats there are up in general I’ll bet more of these are contested than typically would be.

VA and NH seem like the most likely, Rs have had a weird obsession with trying to be competitive in Virginia for a while. NH is such a weird state that it actually doesn’t seem impossible that it could be competitive with the right candidate, even in an otherwise strong D year.

I don’t expect Rs to pick up any of these though, and at most one of MI / GA (but more likely 0).

VA is definitely because of their relative success at the state level, but federally they always end up disappointed. Heck, even Harris's 6% win was better than many were expecting in the context of the national environment.

If you look at recent Senate Elections in Virginia Republicans always put up A) Lousy Candidates (Daniel Gade '20, Stewart '18, Hung Cao '24) or B) Unpopular ones (Ed Gillespie '14).
They haven't had a popular Republican running for Senate since George Allen in 2000 or John Warner in 2002.
If Youngkins Approvals stay high I absolutely do think he could beat Mark Warner.