Was the difference between the 2022 and 2024 elections just a matter of Trumpers staying home?

[darklordoftech]

Was the stronger Dem performance/weaker GOP performance in 2022 just becauss Trump voters stayed home?

[OSR stands with Israel]

2024 was basically a repeat of 2022 in many ways.

1. Here is what the electoral college map would have looked like that year if you base it on house PV per state.




2. Republicans in 2022 won 2 of 6 purple seat senate races while in 2024 they won 1 of 5

[Pericles]

Democrats got almost exactly the same seat count in the House both times, and in both cycles they swept the swing state Senate races with one (or two) exceptions. There was churn in how this looked race by race, but 2024 might be easier to understand if the same basic outcome would have happened two years ago too.

[Accordion Hazard]

Democrats got almost exactly the same seat count in the House both times, and in both cycles they swept the swing state Senate races with one (or two) exceptions. There was churn in how this looked race by race, but 2024 might be easier to understand if the same basic outcome would have happened two years ago too.

You can also see this in exit polling.

2020=17% youth, 34% non-white
2022=12% youth, 27% non-white
2024=14% youth, 28% non-white

The 2024 general electorate was younger and more diverse than the preceding midterm electorate, in line with past cycles. However this time the shift was very small and produced an electorate that was still a lot more like 2022 than 2020. Shifting back to 2020 electorate composition, even with 2024 margins for said electorate, would've produced a Harris popular win, though its effect in the electoral college is less certain.

[Chief Justice PiT]

     2022 being a Dem year is a political myth rather similar to Reagan Democrats. It was basically a modestly pro-Republican year muddied by poor recruitment in key races that shocked people who were pricing in a big polling error that would help the GOP and overreacted when it didn't happen. 2024 was largely the same, but with a Trump victory dominating the headlines and lower expectations for the GOP, so commentators are more comfortable recognizing the results for what they are.

[Progressive Pessimist]

That's one explanation, however another mught be voters not necessarily taking their grievances out on other Democrats as they would for Biden/Harris in 2024.

Down-ballot Democrats this year may not have universally performed in ways worth bragging over, but still outran Harris and managed to win some significant elections in Trump states.

The Democratic brand isn't and wasn't directly associated with the Biden brand, evidently. Same with Trump and perceptions of the GOP.

[Randy Marsh]

Politics isn’t so simple. It’s a factor that definitely affected the results. But roe being overturned months prior definitely had a bigger effect