New State CPVI for 2024?

[iceman]

What are the new cook partisan voting indexes of each states in 2024?

I would assume that Wisconsin is a D+1 state now as it voted to the left of the nation this year?

[Roll Roons]

They changed up the formula to IIRC give 75% weight to the most recent election and 25% to the one before, while before it was 50-50.

[Lykaon]

Results with what are essentially the final results gives us the following: (interestingly enough, the CPVI calculation gives us a national average of 49.125-49.125. The country is literally exactly evenly divided now!) (The previous center point from which PVI was measured was 50.53-46.63 in favor of the Democrats. Essentially, the national average has swung 3.9% to the right for the new round of PVI calculations.)

Alabama- R+15
Alaska- R+6
Arizona- R+2
Arkansas- R+15
California- D+11
Colorado- D+6
Connecticut- D+8
Delaware- D+8
Florida- R+5
Georgia- R+1
Hawaii- D+12
Idaho- R+18
Illinois- D+6
Indiana- R+9
Iowa- R+6
Kansas- R+8
Kentucky- R+15
Louisiana- R+11
Maine- D+4
Maryland- D+15
Massachusetts- D+14
Michigan- EVEN
Minnesota- D+2
Mississippi- R+11
Missouri- R+9
Montana- R+10
Nebraska- R+10
Nevada- R+1
New Hampshire- D+2
New Jersey- D+4
New Mexico- D+4
New York- D+8
North Carolina- R+1
North Dakota- R+18
Ohio- R+5
Oklahoma- R+17
Oregon- D+7
Pennsylvania- EVEN
Rhode Island- D+8
South Carolina- R+8
South Dakota- R+14
Tennessee- R+14
Texas- R+6
Utah- R+11
Vermont- D+16
Virginia- D+3
Washington- D+9
West Virginia- R+21
Wisconsin- EVEN
Wyoming- R+23


Given that the national average now is a perfect split between parties; it's no surprise that the Big 3 Rust Belt states are all EVEN; though if you want to nit pick down to decimals, the order from most D to most R is as follows:


Vermont- D+16.1
Maryland- D+14.9
Massachusetts- D+13.6
Hawaii- D+12.3
California- D+11.2
Washington- D+9.2
Connecticut- D+7.9
Delaware- D+7.9
Rhode Island- D+7.7
New York- D+7.6
Oregon- D+7.4
Illinois- D+6.2
Colorado- D+5.8
New Jersey- D+4.2
Maine- D+3.7
New Mexico- D+3.6
Virginia- D+3.4
Minnesota- D+2.5
New Hampshire- D+2.0

United States- 0 (49.1-49.1)

Michigan- R+0.2
Wisconsin- R+0.3
Pennsylvania- R+0.5
Georgia- R+0.8
Nevada- R+0.9
North Carolina- R+1.4
Arizona- R+2.0
Ohio- R+5.2
Florida- R+5.3
Texas- R+5.8
Iowa- R+6.0
Alaska- R+6.2
Kansas- R+7.9
South Carolina- R+8.1
Missouri- R+8.8
Indiana- R+9.1
Montana- R+9.5
Nebraska- R+10.0
Louisiana- R+10.6
Mississippi- R+10.7
Utah- R+10.7
Tennessee- R+14.0
South Dakota- R+14.2
Alabama- R+14.6
Kentucky- R+14.7
Arkansas- R+14.9
Oklahoma- R+17.0
Idaho- R+17.5
North Dakota- R+17.9
West Virginia- R+20.6
Wyoming- R+22.6

[iceman]

Given that the national average now is a perfect split between parties; it's no surprise that the Big 3 Rust Belt states are all EVEN; though if you want to nit pick down to decimals, the order from most D to most R is as follows:


Vermont- D+16.1
Maryland- D+14.9
Massachusetts- D+13.6
Hawaii- D+12.3
California- D+11.2
Washington- D+9.2
Connecticut- D+7.9
Delaware- D+7.9
Rhode Island- D+7.7
New York- D+7.6
Oregon- D+7.4
Illinois- D+6.2
Colorado- D+5.8
New Jersey- D+4.2
Maine- D+3.7
New Mexico- D+3.6
Virginia- D+3.4
Minnesota- D+2.5
New Hampshire- D+2.0

United States- 0 (49.1-49.1)

Michigan- R+0.2
Wisconsin- R+0.3
Pennsylvania- R+0.5
Georgia- R+0.8
Nevada- R+0.9
North Carolina- R+1.4
Arizona- R+2.0
Ohio- R+5.2
Florida- R+5.3
Texas- R+5.8
Iowa- R+6.0
Alaska- R+6.2
Kansas- R+7.9
South Carolina- R+8.1
Missouri- R+8.8
Indiana- R+9.1
Montana- R+9.5
Nebraska- R+10.0
Louisiana- R+10.6
Mississippi- R+10.7
Utah- R+10.7
Tennessee- R+14.0
South Dakota- R+14.2
Alabama- R+14.6
Kentucky- R+14.7
Arkansas- R+14.9
Oklahoma- R+17.0
Idaho- R+17.5
North Dakota- R+17.9
West Virginia- R+20.6
Wyoming- R+22.6

New York being on the right Delaware and Washington amazes me.

[GAinDC]

Really wild to see GA with almost an even PVI

[dkxdjy]

Am I correct to say that a PVI of R+3 would mean an expected victory margin of 6 points for Republican candidates in a neutral environment? This is my understanding as is. Never understood why it is though, I think it is harder to understand than having R+3 mean an expected victory margin of 3 points.

[Lykaon]

Am I correct to say that a PVI of R+3 would mean an expected victory margin of 6 points for Republican candidates in a neutral environment? This is my understanding as is. Never understood why it is though, I think it is harder to understand than having R+3 mean an expected victory margin of 3 points.

I believe so. Given that the mean is incidentally a tie 49.1-49.1; R+3 would mean the Republican would get 52.1 and inversely the Democrat would get 46.1

[BrewCityLiberal]

Doesn't Wisconsin's rural shift worry anyone? The R shift in the driftless area this year is especially concerning. I wouldn't be surprised if the CPVI for WI shifts to the right in 2028 even if a Democrat takes the White House. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[jaichind]

If someone had shown me these CPVI the day before the election I would have concluded that Trump narrowly lost and Harris narrowly held the Blue Wall.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

If someone had shown me these CPVI the day before the election I would have concluded that Trump narrowly lost and Harris narrowly held the Blue Wall.

Me as well.