Who is more vulnerable? Ossoff or Tillis?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who is more vulnerable, Jon Ossoff or Thom Tillis.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tillis hasn't won by more than 2% so far, even as an incumbent.

You could say the same for Ossoff, given that he has only won one election so far, however the environment with Trump as President will be more dangerous for Tillis.

[New World Man]

Not sure Tillis would win a primary.

[Duke of York]

Thom Tillis. He could very well lose the primary.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Tillis

[Joe Biden 2028]

I'm going with Ossoff. NC has been way too stubborn for Democrats at the federal level

[smoltchanov]

Tillis. The sanity is a strong disadvantage in modern day Republican party. Especially - in primary.

[here2view]

Tillis just because his party is in the white house.

If Harris won, I'd be saying Ossoff.

[Fuzzy Bear Stands With S019 And Israel]

They are equally vulnerable for different reasons.

Ossoff is vulnerable because Georgia is still a Lean R state.  Tillis is vulnerable because he is not a strong Trump supporter who may have a primary that will be hotly contested and leave bad feelings. 

[CentristRepublican]

Thom Tillis. He could very well lose the primary.

This. If the question specifically asks which seat is more likely to flip, I'd still say NC, but with a little less confidence.

Tillis though might actually just lose renomination.

[CityofSinners]

The biggest advantage for Ossoff is of course Trump being in office not Harris. The midterm backlash is one of the most enduring features of american politics.
Tillis biggest advantage is that NC is more friendly place for republicans then GA is for democrats. Though not by a  huge margin.

Kemp is a bit stronger of a challenger then Cooper, though a bit less likely to run. Ossoff has more room to moderate while Tillis has to watch out for an primary challenge.

Tillis is a  weaker incumbent for me then Ossoff. Tillis only winning by 2% against a flawed challenger while Trump was carrying the state was a clear underperformance.
Can't say too much about Ossoff's electoral strength. GA in 2020/21 was just too nationalized, especially the runoff.

[Samof94]

Tillis, easily. It is a R midterm.

[หมูเด้ง]

At least people are getting a little more optimistic and that even if they think that Democrats can't win in 2026, they at least aren't expecting them to lose any more seats.

[GAinDC]

At least people are getting a little more optimistic and that even if they think that Democrats can't win in 2026, they at least aren't expecting them to lose any more seats.

Well, the general trend is that the party out of power has a natural advantage during a midterm, and the 2026 senate map isn’t so bad for Dems.

[President Johnson]

Definitely Tillis. However, North Carolina has been a let-down in some many national races since 2008. I'm really afraid this is another 1% heartbreaker, even if Ossoff ends up winning comfortably.

[Zenobiyl]

Tillis. He’s a weak candidate and his most likely opponent will be quite formidable. Same goes for Ossoff, but at least he has favorable dem headwinds and a dem-trending state going for him.

[DS0816]

…Georgia is still a Lean R state. …

It is not.

Georgia was the No. 28 best state for Donald Trump when he was re-elected, to a second consecutive term, in 2024. It was his 268th cumulative electoral vote. It was flipped and carried by +2.18 while he won the U.S. Popular Vote by +1.47.

In 2016, with Trump’s first-term election win (also as a Republican pickup), Georgia was his No. 24 best state. It was his 204th cumulative electoral vote. Trump carried it by +5.10 while his U.S. Popular Vote was a percentage-points margin of –2.09.


In 2016, Georgia was, for Trump, four states above the Tipping-Point State.

In 2024, Georgia was, for Trump, one state above the Tipping-Point State.

In 2016, for prevailing Trump, six more carried states followed Georgia.

In 2024, for prevailing Trump, three more carried states followed Georgia.



Georgia is now a bellwether state.


@ https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=621740.msg9813099#msg9813099

[Existing in the context]

Definitely Tillis. However, North Carolina has been a let-down in some many national races since 2008. I'm really afraid this is another 1% heartbreaker, even if Ossoff ends up winning comfortably.

A series of 1% losses didnt stop Republicans from winning Wisconsin.

[politics_king]

If MAGA really runs MTG for Senate, I see Ossoff easily winning reelection.

[GAinDC]

If MAGA really runs MTG for Senate, I see Ossoff easily winning reelection.

I can imagine a lot of Republican power brokers in the state are maybe softening to the idea of her running, as she’s the Trumpiest candidate who could activate a lot of MAGA voters. Of course, I still think she’d turn off way more voters than she would bring out.