NJ results amazes me

[jman123]

Northern Hudson County NJ, heavily urban, voted 41 percent Trump overall. This is a heavily urban area and 85 percent plus hispanic. Heavy Dominican , Cuban, Salvadorean, and Ecuadorian area. It went Heavily Obama in 2012, Heavily Hillary in 2016 with Trump only getting 20 percent overall. In 2020 Trump Improved to around 30 percent. In 2024 he surged to 40 percent of vote. Outright winning many precincts that are over 90 plus percent hispanic. Also, there is a heavy Islamic presence mixed in and in their neighborhoods Trump won by plurality with Stein getting outsized support.

What are your thoughts as to causes? My theory is the Migrant crisis in NYC area.

ALSO..... Turnout was abysmal. around 54 percent average. why such a turnout collapse?

[Pericles]

Trump won the Bill Pascrell district that voted for Biden by 19 points and is plurality Hispanic. What a huge swing. The trend is clearly visible given formerly competitive districts like Gottheimer's and Sherrill's still voted for Harris.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump won the Bill Pascrell district that voted for Biden by 19 points and is plurality Hispanic. What a huge swing. The trend is clearly visible given formerly competitive districts like Gottheimer's and Sherrill's still voted for Harris.

Harris barely won Gottheimer’s district after Biden easily won it in 2020, and got held to single digits in Sherrill’s.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/SenGoldBars/status/1865594305416466686
Probably the first time any city in Hudson County voted R for president since... 1992, if not 1988?

I know W lost the state by a fairly similar margin in 2004, but his coalition was just so different from Trump's.

[Pericles]

Trump won the Bill Pascrell district that voted for Biden by 19 points and is plurality Hispanic. What a huge swing. The trend is clearly visible given formerly competitive districts like Gottheimer's and Sherrill's still voted for Harris.

Harris barely won Gottheimer’s district after Biden easily won it in 2020, and got held to single digits in Sherrill’s.

My point is that a future Republican winning or close loss coalition in New Jersey looks very different to what it would have looked a decade ago.

[CentristRepublican]

Trump won the Bill Pascrell district that voted for Biden by 19 points and is plurality Hispanic. What a huge swing. The trend is clearly visible given formerly competitive districts like Gottheimer's and Sherrill's still voted for Harris.

In fairness, Gottheimer's and Sherrill's seats got shored up in redistricting and were probably, like, on the verge of being Lean D by 2016 anyway.

[Progressive Pessimist]

As a New Jersey resident, they could not be more depressing.

I live in close proximity to a lot of municipalities I now have resentment for.

I used to just hate how my own town votes, and now I hate the whole state.

It won't last though. I'm sure of that. 2025 and 2026 will see a Democratic comeback. Although I am also sure that New Jersey is going to vote closer to New Mexico and Virginia now in presidential election years.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump won the Bill Pascrell district that voted for Biden by 19 points and is plurality Hispanic. What a huge swing. The trend is clearly visible given formerly competitive districts like Gottheimer's and Sherrill's still voted for Harris.

In fairness, Gottheimer's and Sherrill's seats got shored up in redistricting and were probably, like, on the verge of being Lean D by 2016 anyway.

And Harris managed to turn them back into swing seats overnight. OK maybe Sherrill’s seat isn’t quite there yet.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump won the Bill Pascrell district that voted for Biden by 19 points and is plurality Hispanic. What a huge swing. The trend is clearly visible given formerly competitive districts like Gottheimer's and Sherrill's still voted for Harris.

In fairness, Gottheimer's and Sherrill's seats got shored up in redistricting and were probably, like, on the verge of being Lean D by 2016 anyway.

And Harris managed to turn them back into swing seats overnight. OK maybe Sherrill’s seat isn’t quite there yet.

They are absolutely not "swing seats." Gottheimer and Sherrill still won pretty sizably in outrunning Harris.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump won the Bill Pascrell district that voted for Biden by 19 points and is plurality Hispanic. What a huge swing. The trend is clearly visible given formerly competitive districts like Gottheimer's and Sherrill's still voted for Harris.

In fairness, Gottheimer's and Sherrill's seats got shored up in redistricting and were probably, like, on the verge of being Lean D by 2016 anyway.

And Harris managed to turn them back into swing seats overnight. OK maybe Sherrill’s seat isn’t quite there yet.

They are absolutely not "swing seats." Gottheimer and Sherrill still won pretty sizably in outrunning Harris.

I meant once they’re gone. Kind of like Fitzpatrick isn’t really in a swing seat right now but it’ll probably become one again without him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump won the Bill Pascrell district that voted for Biden by 19 points and is plurality Hispanic. What a huge swing. The trend is clearly visible given formerly competitive districts like Gottheimer's and Sherrill's still voted for Harris.

In fairness, Gottheimer's and Sherrill's seats got shored up in redistricting and were probably, like, on the verge of being Lean D by 2016 anyway.

And Harris managed to turn them back into swing seats overnight. OK maybe Sherrill’s seat isn’t quite there yet.

They are absolutely not "swing seats." Gottheimer and Sherrill still won pretty sizably in outrunning Harris.

I meant once they’re gone. Kind of like Fitzpatrick isn’t really in a swing seat right now but it’ll probably become one again without him.

I still disagree.

[CentristRepublican]

Trump won the Bill Pascrell district that voted for Biden by 19 points and is plurality Hispanic. What a huge swing. The trend is clearly visible given formerly competitive districts like Gottheimer's and Sherrill's still voted for Harris.

In fairness, Gottheimer's and Sherrill's seats got shored up in redistricting and were probably, like, on the verge of being Lean D by 2016 anyway.

And Harris managed to turn them back into swing seats overnight. OK maybe Sherrill’s seat isn’t quite there yet.

They are absolutely not "swing seats." Gottheimer and Sherrill still won pretty sizably in outrunning Harris.

I meant once they’re gone. Kind of like Fitzpatrick isn’t really in a swing seat right now but it’ll probably become one again without him.

Didn't Fitzpatrick's seat stick with Harris in spite of the horrid national environment?

Imo, any seat that trended D and stuck with Harris is probably not really competitive. Now ofc that's very different from a seat that zoomed right and barely voted for Harris (iirc this was the case in NY-04)...but seats like Fitzpatrick's PA-01 and the NJ suburban Dems are still fundamentally D-leaning, and the fact that they voted for Harris (however narrowly) even in this environment only really underscores that.

Imo Fitzpatrick's district will flip the year he retires (outside chance he gets beaten in 2026 IF it's a 2018 level wave AND we have a strong candidate) and probably stay like that till the next 2010.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Imo Fitzpatrick's district will flip the year he retires (outside chance he gets beaten in 2026 IF it's a 2018 level wave AND we have a strong candidate) and probably stay like that till the next 2010.

This is a little bold to say given how the notoriously volatile Bucks County flipped R with all of its distinct moving parts moving to the right, but I wouldn't discount it entirely given what the inevitable backlash after the coming White House transition will probably look like.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump won the Bill Pascrell district that voted for Biden by 19 points and is plurality Hispanic. What a huge swing. The trend is clearly visible given formerly competitive districts like Gottheimer's and Sherrill's still voted for Harris.

In fairness, Gottheimer's and Sherrill's seats got shored up in redistricting and were probably, like, on the verge of being Lean D by 2016 anyway.

And Harris managed to turn them back into swing seats overnight. OK maybe Sherrill’s seat isn’t quite there yet.

They are absolutely not "swing seats." Gottheimer and Sherrill still won pretty sizably in outrunning Harris.

I meant once they’re gone. Kind of like Fitzpatrick isn’t really in a swing seat right now but it’ll probably become one again without him.

Didn't Fitzpatrick's seat stick with Harris in spite of the horrid national environment?

Imo, any seat that trended D and stuck with Harris is probably not really competitive. Now ofc that's very different from a seat that zoomed right and barely voted for Harris (iirc this was the case in NY-04)...but seats like Fitzpatrick's PA-01 and the NJ suburban Dems are still fundamentally D-leaning, and the fact that they voted for Harris (however narrowly) even in this environment only really underscores that.

Imo Fitzpatrick's district will flip the year he retires (outside chance he gets beaten in 2026 IF it's a 2018 level wave AND we have a strong candidate) and probably stay like that till the next 2010.

Gottheimer’s seat swung to Trump by 10 and Sherrill’s did so by 8. Both trended R this year.

[CentristRepublican]

Trump won the Bill Pascrell district that voted for Biden by 19 points and is plurality Hispanic. What a huge swing. The trend is clearly visible given formerly competitive districts like Gottheimer's and Sherrill's still voted for Harris.

In fairness, Gottheimer's and Sherrill's seats got shored up in redistricting and were probably, like, on the verge of being Lean D by 2016 anyway.

And Harris managed to turn them back into swing seats overnight. OK maybe Sherrill’s seat isn’t quite there yet.

They are absolutely not "swing seats." Gottheimer and Sherrill still won pretty sizably in outrunning Harris.

I meant once they’re gone. Kind of like Fitzpatrick isn’t really in a swing seat right now but it’ll probably become one again without him.

Didn't Fitzpatrick's seat stick with Harris in spite of the horrid national environment?

Imo, any seat that trended D and stuck with Harris is probably not really competitive. Now ofc that's very different from a seat that zoomed right and barely voted for Harris (iirc this was the case in NY-04)...but seats like Fitzpatrick's PA-01 and the NJ suburban Dems are still fundamentally D-leaning, and the fact that they voted for Harris (however narrowly) even in this environment only really underscores that.

Imo Fitzpatrick's district will flip the year he retires (outside chance he gets beaten in 2026 IF it's a 2018 level wave AND we have a strong candidate) and probably stay like that till the next 2010.

Gottheimer’s seat swung to Trump by 10 and Sherrill’s did so by 8. Both trended R this year.

Oh damn. Didn't know that.

I just checked out the CD results - Sherrill's seat is still shockingly pro-Harris for such a large rightward swing. Doubt it becomes competitive (which would require another 2020->2024 swing; Idt that's happening, def not in the suburbs).

Gottheimer's seat, remains to be seen. Imo it depends on when he retires. Let's say he retires in 2026 and we recruit a good candidate who's able to entrench themselves in, we should be fine. If otoh he waits till the next 2010 to do so, and trends don't improve here, that seat could flip, sure.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump won the Bill Pascrell district that voted for Biden by 19 points and is plurality Hispanic. What a huge swing. The trend is clearly visible given formerly competitive districts like Gottheimer's and Sherrill's still voted for Harris.

In fairness, Gottheimer's and Sherrill's seats got shored up in redistricting and were probably, like, on the verge of being Lean D by 2016 anyway.

And Harris managed to turn them back into swing seats overnight. OK maybe Sherrill’s seat isn’t quite there yet.

They are absolutely not "swing seats." Gottheimer and Sherrill still won pretty sizably in outrunning Harris.

I meant once they’re gone. Kind of like Fitzpatrick isn’t really in a swing seat right now but it’ll probably become one again without him.

Didn't Fitzpatrick's seat stick with Harris in spite of the horrid national environment?

Imo, any seat that trended D and stuck with Harris is probably not really competitive. Now ofc that's very different from a seat that zoomed right and barely voted for Harris (iirc this was the case in NY-04)...but seats like Fitzpatrick's PA-01 and the NJ suburban Dems are still fundamentally D-leaning, and the fact that they voted for Harris (however narrowly) even in this environment only really underscores that.

Imo Fitzpatrick's district will flip the year he retires (outside chance he gets beaten in 2026 IF it's a 2018 level wave AND we have a strong candidate) and probably stay like that till the next 2010.

Gottheimer’s seat swung to Trump by 10 and Sherrill’s did so by 8. Both trended R this year.

Oh damn. Didn't know that.

I just checked out the CD results - Sherrill's seat is still shockingly pro-Harris for such a large rightward swing. Doubt it becomes competitive (which would require another 2020->2024 swing; Idt that's happening, def not in the suburbs).

Gottheimer's seat, remains to be seen. Imo it depends on when he retires. Let's say he retires in 2026 and we recruit a good candidate who's able to entrench themselves in, we should be fine. If otoh he waits till the next 2010 to do so, and trends don't improve here, that seat could flip, sure.

Sherrill’s seat could get close in a prefect storm scenario, sure.

[GAinDC]

Let’s be real — a lot of this result was due to a horrific drop in Dem turnout. Some of these areas will snap back in a better cycle for Dems, although some areas have clearly become more competitive.

[Roll Roons]

So from the looks of it, NJ is one of just five states that has trended right in all three of Trump's elections, the others being FL, HI, MS and NY.

And yeah, I really can't stop thinking about this result. I'm in complete awe at how well Trump did here and I think I still will be for the next four years.

[Voice of low info America]

We need bronz. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hudson is crazier, but the Bronx is arguably crazier. It was Hillary's best county in the entire country in 2016 with Trump getting under 10% and he just got 27% there.

[MaynardFriedman]

I think most posters here are getting everything exactly wrong: in all likelihood, if turnout was higher, there would be even larger swings to Trump. I think it's probably true that low propensity voters who didn't bother showing up were more Dem leaning than the ones who did but they'd be much be favorable to Trump than Dominicans or Puerto Ricans or Muslims who always vote.

Similarly to what was observed in southern West Virginia in 2008 and 2012, the low turnout rates we see today in Democratic strongholds are emblematic of people turning away from Democrats. The "good" news is that loads of people are unwilling to vote for Trump, even if they hate Democrats, but they could easily be swayed to support him.

[rabidPolitico]

Let’s be real — a lot of this result was due to a horrific drop in Dem turnout. Some of these areas will snap back in a better cycle for Dems, although some areas have clearly become more competitive.

Collectively, turnout wasn't the issue nationwide.  Nate Cohn had an article that explained how democrats had a persuasion problem this cycle.   I think NJ could be a swing state or close to it now.