Would Bob Casey Have Won Re-Election if he stayed Pro-Life?

[CentristRepublican]

Harris should have nominated Shapiro and that would have saved casey

Casey shouldn't have needed saving. PA only narrowly went R and actually trended a little Dem. Any decent amount of crossover appeal would've been enough as it was.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

PA and WI has yet to elect a S or G female to Fed office it voted against Hillary and MI barely voted for Slotkin, but have elected plenty of statewide females.

I think sexism got in the way of Casey losing this battleground but clearly  Harris polled at Hillary not Biden levels in Bucks and Erie Cty.  Otherwise Harris would of won the state


But Governor's races are usually landslides and Shapiro along with Pritzker should win by 7/12 pts

[UWS]

Senator Bob Casey would likely have faced primary challenge from left if he remained pro-life. And the reason why Dave McCormick win was rather the economy in such time of inflation and he argued that families winning over $50,000 got a 25 % tax cut from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and 54 % of the PA voters supported fracking while only 37 % oppose it so Harris’ supporting fracking ban hurt her. McCormick and Trump made gains among PA Hispanics as McCormick won 39 % of PA Latinos compared to Casey’s 49 % which helped in winning in Bethlehem and narrowly losing Erie

[Chief Justice PiT]

     If he got nominated it would have helped to not have such a blatantly political flip-flop on his record, but I suspect he'd have gotten primaried if he didn't switch.

[Fuzzy Bear Stands With S019 And Israel]

If Casey had remained pro-life he would have lost the Democratic Primary, given the state of today's Democratic Party and its electorate.

[BoJack Horseman]

No. He lost because he couldn’t counter the “He’s too weak” narrative that McCormick pushed harder than anything else.

[Steve from Lambeth]

PA and WI has yet to elect a S or G female to Fed office

Wisconsin literally elected a female Senator to her third term in November...

[Orca]

One thing that we really need to learn as a party is that the primary group that Democrats should be targeting is not moderates but the progressive disaffected Democratic voters who swing between voting for Democrats and not voting at all (that is what cost us the election, as evident by Democratic turnout in exit polls). If he stayed pro-life, that would only discourage more voters and lead to a worse performance.

[Vosem]

One thing that we really need to learn as a party is that the primary group that Democrats should be targeting is not moderates but the progressive disaffected Democratic voters who swing between voting for Democrats and not voting at all (that is what cost us the election, as evident by Democratic turnout in exit polls). If he stayed pro-life, that would only discourage more voters and lead to a worse performance.

Don't people who voted Biden '20/non-voting '24 actually have a pretty similar demographic composition to people who shifted Biden '20/Trump '24? I don't think this is actually true.

(Also, by raw vote, at the state level Trump '24 vs. Biden '20 is just exactly the same map as Trump '24 vs. Harris '24, although in fairness to Biden the county map looks a lot less dire.)

[Mr. Smith]

He would have been primaried if he took the Republican position on one of the most important issues for Harris voters.

Not necessarily a liability given how Michigan turned out. After 2018, I have very little doubt Stabenow would've ended up the same as Casey if she hadn't retired.

I see no reason why Casey couldn't be replaced by someone more willing to take no prisoners.

Like maybe Conor Lamb tries again, or Matt Cartwright pulls a Tim Ryan and goes for it...either of them would be better seasoned.