Rate a Cornyn vs. Paxton primary

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate a primary between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton.

[CentristRepublican]

Likely Cornyn and closer to Safe than Lean

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Likely Cornyn, the Senate GOP is going to pour millions into his race and its unlikely Trump would even endorse Paxton, he probably endorses Cornyn more likely. Texas is a massive state too, so ousting a 24 year institution in there in a primary is going to be a very much uphill battle.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think this plays out very similar to Georgia Gov with a slightly weaker version of Kemp and a much worse version of Perdue.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'll say lean Cornyn but closer to likely - agree with some of the other points that have been said, but just 4 years out there's so much that could potentially happen and it'll depend in large part on how Cornyn defines himself during this term.

[CentristRepublican]

I'll say lean Cornyn but closer to likely - agree with some of the other points that have been said, but just 4 years out there's so much that could potentially happen and it'll depend in large part on how Cornyn defines himself during this term.

Well note that no incumbent Sen. has been primaried out since 2012.

Granted, that will likely change in coming cycles, but that applies to ppl like Cassidy who really jumped the shark and voted to convict Trump. Cornyn has just been an establishment R, and that really isn't enough for him to lose a Senate primary.

Certainly not to Ken Paxton, who even the GOP-controlled HoR impeached and who is pretty massively disliked (probably even by a majority of Republicans or a significant minority).

Hell, even the Likely Cornyn rating is out of an abundance of caution.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Cornyn is in trouble

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Likely Cornyn I guess.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Likely Cornyn I guess.

Paxton is beloved in TX

[freepcrusher]

I feel people are staying on way too long. Cornyn's term ends a month before he turns 75. But anyways, Cornyn should be favored in a primary. Paxton is hated by a lot of people, including a lot of Texas republicans.

[Don't Tread on Me]

Cornyn wins easily. Even if Trump endorses Paxton, I can't imagine that many moderates stomach Paxton and the Old Guard should show up for Cornyn which should be enough to save him. And like Cheney in 2022, I could see some Dems changing their registration just to vote against Paxton.

[MargieCat]

Cornyn wins easily. Even if Trump endorses Paxton, I can't imagine that many moderates stomach Paxton and the Old Guard should show up for Cornyn which should be enough to save him. And like Cheney in 2022, I could see some Dems changing their registration just to vote against Paxton.

They don't even have to do that.

We have open primaries (for now)

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Cornyn wins easily. Even if Trump endorses Paxton, I can't imagine that many moderates stomach Paxton and the Old Guard should show up for Cornyn which should be enough to save him. And like Cheney in 2022, I could see some Dems changing their registration just to vote against Paxton.

You don't know how popular Paxton is Cornyn is fav but he won't win it easily. Why do you think Paxton didn't get removed from office and I am going to TX, because guns and big oil rule TX


Allred was never gonna win TX Trump owns TX it's not  NY, it's falls ious to think that TX is Dallas it's not it Austin a Conserv coty


Just because Paxton wins the primary Ds aren't targeting this seat we lost by 9pts

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely Cornyn.

In a head-to-head primary, I'd predict a rougly 60-40% outcome.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Likely Cornyn.

In a head-to-head primary, I'd predict a rougly 60-40% outcome.

I highly doubt it Paxton is beloved in TX