Will Emilia Sykes be re-elected in 2026?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Emilia Sykes be re-elected in 2026?

[Talleyrand]

Depends on whether Ohio draws new maps.

[Tekken_Guy]

Depends on whether Ohio draws new maps.

Also depends on what the new maps look like.

[Talleyrand]

Depends on whether Ohio draws new maps.

Also depends on what the new maps look like.

Is it not pretty much given that a new map would imperil Kaptur and Sykes? I have not been following closely, admittedly.
 

[Tekken_Guy]

Depends on whether Ohio draws new maps.

Also depends on what the new maps look like.

Is it not pretty much given that a new map would imperil Kaptur and Sykes? I have not been following closely, admittedly.
 

No it’s not a given. Unlike Kaptur, it’s not a sure thing Sykes will get a totally unwinnable district. Don Davis wasn’t seen in the same tier of vulnerability as Manning, Nickel, or Jackson going into the 2024 cycle.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

It'd be damn near impossible not to make such a map a dummymander. The 7th, which splits Cuyahoga a bit, only had the R incumbent win with 51%. The Cleveland area's already split into 5 districts. Trying to also split Cincinnati and Akron would require you to probably have a 6th snake in, and even with that you likely have one that's still a tough hold each election.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

It'd be damn near impossible not to make such a map a dummymander. The 7th, which splits Cuyahoga a bit, only had the R incumbent win with 51%. The Cleveland area's already split into 5 districts. Trying to also split Cincinnati and Akron would require you to probably have a 6th snake in, and even with that you likely have one that's still a tough hold each election.

You would likely have to do Illinois style snakes to make it happen. Not sure how its a dummymander though considering the Cleveland metro area is slowly getting more red over time. Cincinnatti area is trending blue I agree, so I could understand making a Dem sink there if necessary. I will play around in DRA once the 2024 data is uploaded and see what can be done.

[It's Time.]

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

I think they'll do 12-3. Landsman's seat becomes a sink. I don't think they'll crack Cincinnati again considering Landsman is a big overperformer and incumbent, Cincinnati is trending blue, and it's a Trump midterm.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

That's why Landsman is considering a run for Sen in 2026

[CentristRepublican]

Voted yes though that's entirely contingent on OH keeping the same maps. Assuming it does (and one must make the assumption to make a forecast at this time), I expect her to survive a Trump midterm if she survived the Trump bloodbath this year. I believe her seat broke very narrowly for Trump and she is a proven overperformer.

EDIT: OH-13 was actually Harris+0.1, which really only proves my point (though it certainly makes me wonder if it'll remain intact following redistricting - on the one hand, a competitive seat might be the most optimal in the bigger picture; otoh, it's very marginal rn, Sykes is an overperformer, and it would probably only require shifting it 3-4 points right to oust her by 2028).

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

It'd be damn near impossible not to make such a map a dummymander. The 7th, which splits Cuyahoga a bit, only had the R incumbent win with 51%. The Cleveland area's already split into 5 districts. Trying to also split Cincinnati and Akron would require you to probably have a 6th snake in, and even with that you likely have one that's still a tough hold each election.

In fairness, that's because Kucinich won 12.8% as an Independent. In terms of margin, Miller won by a comfortable 15 points.

But yes, I agree with the substance of what you said. 13-2 would mean a seat on borrowed time in Cincinatti, though Ig that is better than Safe D. And in the Northeast there'd be quite a few extremely ugly (not that that matters given IL/TX tbf) and/or very marginal districts.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Depends on whether Ohio draws new maps.

Also depends on what the new maps look like.

Is it not pretty much given that a new map would imperil Kaptur and Sykes? I have not been following closely, admittedly.
 

No it’s not a given. Unlike Kaptur, it’s not a sure thing Sykes will get a totally unwinnable district. Don Davis wasn’t seen in the same tier of vulnerability as Manning, Nickel, or Jackson going into the 2024 cycle.

It’s not a sure thing either gets an unwinnable district

[Tekken_Guy]

Depends on whether Ohio draws new maps.

Also depends on what the new maps look like.

Is it not pretty much given that a new map would imperil Kaptur and Sykes? I have not been following closely, admittedly.
 

No it’s not a given. Unlike Kaptur, it’s not a sure thing Sykes will get a totally unwinnable district. Don Davis wasn’t seen in the same tier of vulnerability as Manning, Nickel, or Jackson going into the 2024 cycle.

It’s not a sure thing either gets an unwinnable district

It’s more likely with Kaptur by far though.

[Mr.Phips]

Depends on whether Ohio draws new maps.

Also depends on what the new maps look like.

Is it not pretty much given that a new map would imperil Kaptur and Sykes? I have not been following closely, admittedly.
 

No it’s not a given. Unlike Kaptur, it’s not a sure thing Sykes will get a totally unwinnable district. Don Davis wasn’t seen in the same tier of vulnerability as Manning, Nickel, or Jackson going into the 2024 cycle.

It’s not a sure thing either gets an unwinnable district

It’s more likely with Kaptur by far though.

Yeah all they have to do is attach Lucas county to a bunch of blood red rurals to the west rather than the somewhat more marginal counties to the east.

[The Mikado]

Assuming redraw happens I think OH goes for a 12-3 approach and draws out Kaptur and Sykes but leaves Landsman alone. Without a redraw? I think Kaptur retires and the Dems lose that seat without her but Sykes could prevail on the current map in 2026.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Assuming redraw happens I think OH goes for a 12-3 approach and draws out Kaptur and Sykes but leaves Landsman alone. Without a redraw? I think Kaptur retires and the Dems lose that seat without her but Sykes could prevail on the current map in 2026.

Kaptur is probably a lifer unless she loses re-election; she could retire, but it’d surprise me a great deal.  It is far from clear a major redraw will happen, there are a lot of competing interests here and the idiosyncrasies of folks like Bob Latta will likely be prioritized over partisan gains by at least a non-insignificant number of Republicans in the state legislature.

[kwabbit]

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

It'd be damn near impossible not to make such a map a dummymander. The 7th, which splits Cuyahoga a bit, only had the R incumbent win with 51%. The Cleveland area's already split into 5 districts. Trying to also split Cincinnati and Akron would require you to probably have a 6th snake in, and even with that you likely have one that's still a tough hold each election.

Drawing a 13-2 map where Trump won every district in 2024 by 10+ points is simple. There aren’t too many left trending areas in Ohio and you get most of them into the Columbus pack and the Cleveland pack. The map could go 10-5 in a very good Dem year but it’s very difficult for it to backfire and cause Dems to get more seats than they currently have. Maybe Sykes will win a Trump +10 seat or Kaptur a Trump +14 seat in 2026 but those seats are drawing from deep red territory and don’t endanger other seats.

[Tekken_Guy]

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

It'd be damn near impossible not to make such a map a dummymander. The 7th, which splits Cuyahoga a bit, only had the R incumbent win with 51%. The Cleveland area's already split into 5 districts. Trying to also split Cincinnati and Akron would require you to probably have a 6th snake in, and even with that you likely have one that's still a tough hold each election.

Drawing a 13-2 map where Trump won every district in 2024 by 10+ points is simple. There aren’t too many left trending areas in Ohio and you get most of them into the Columbus pack and the Cleveland pack. The map could go 10-5 in a very good Dem year but it’s very difficult for it to backfire and cause Dems to get more seats than they currently have. Maybe Sykes will win a Trump +10 seat or Kaptur a Trump +14 seat in 2026 but those seats are drawing from deep red territory and don’t endanger other seats.

Not really with the Cincy seat, given rules against splitting the city.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

It'd be damn near impossible not to make such a map a dummymander. The 7th, which splits Cuyahoga a bit, only had the R incumbent win with 51%. The Cleveland area's already split into 5 districts. Trying to also split Cincinnati and Akron would require you to probably have a 6th snake in, and even with that you likely have one that's still a tough hold each election.

Drawing a 13-2 map where Trump won every district in 2024 by 10+ points is simple. There aren’t too many left trending areas in Ohio and you get most of them into the Columbus pack and the Cleveland pack. The map could go 10-5 in a very good Dem year but it’s very difficult for it to backfire and cause Dems to get more seats than they currently have. Maybe Sykes will win a Trump +10 seat or Kaptur a Trump +14 seat in 2026 but those seats are drawing from deep red territory and don’t endanger other seats.

This is wishcasting

[kwabbit]

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

It'd be damn near impossible not to make such a map a dummymander. The 7th, which splits Cuyahoga a bit, only had the R incumbent win with 51%. The Cleveland area's already split into 5 districts. Trying to also split Cincinnati and Akron would require you to probably have a 6th snake in, and even with that you likely have one that's still a tough hold each election.

Drawing a 13-2 map where Trump won every district in 2024 by 10+ points is simple. There aren’t too many left trending areas in Ohio and you get most of them into the Columbus pack and the Cleveland pack. The map could go 10-5 in a very good Dem year but it’s very difficult for it to backfire and cause Dems to get more seats than they currently have. Maybe Sykes will win a Trump +10 seat or Kaptur a Trump +14 seat in 2026 but those seats are drawing from deep red territory and don’t endanger other seats.

Not really with the Cincy seat, given rules against splitting the city.

You can make a Trump +10 seat with taking the bare legal minimum in Hamilton County, all of Clermont, and rural counties. Cincinnati turnout was poor. District shifted over 4 points to the right despite each county below being that.

[kwabbit]

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

It'd be damn near impossible not to make such a map a dummymander. The 7th, which splits Cuyahoga a bit, only had the R incumbent win with 51%. The Cleveland area's already split into 5 districts. Trying to also split Cincinnati and Akron would require you to probably have a 6th snake in, and even with that you likely have one that's still a tough hold each election.

Drawing a 13-2 map where Trump won every district in 2024 by 10+ points is simple. There aren’t too many left trending areas in Ohio and you get most of them into the Columbus pack and the Cleveland pack. The map could go 10-5 in a very good Dem year but it’s very difficult for it to backfire and cause Dems to get more seats than they currently have. Maybe Sykes will win a Trump +10 seat or Kaptur a Trump +14 seat in 2026 but those seats are drawing from deep red territory and don’t endanger other seats.

This is wishcasting

Wishcasting that they would draw an extreme map? I think 10-2-3 is likelier. I doubt they will try to make OH-1 a red district. Kaptur will get a much redder district but will win in 2026 anyway, Sykes will get a moderately redder district and win comfortably in 2026.

[Tekken_Guy]

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

It'd be damn near impossible not to make such a map a dummymander. The 7th, which splits Cuyahoga a bit, only had the R incumbent win with 51%. The Cleveland area's already split into 5 districts. Trying to also split Cincinnati and Akron would require you to probably have a 6th snake in, and even with that you likely have one that's still a tough hold each election.

Drawing a 13-2 map where Trump won every district in 2024 by 10+ points is simple. There aren’t too many left trending areas in Ohio and you get most of them into the Columbus pack and the Cleveland pack. The map could go 10-5 in a very good Dem year but it’s very difficult for it to backfire and cause Dems to get more seats than they currently have. Maybe Sykes will win a Trump +10 seat or Kaptur a Trump +14 seat in 2026 but those seats are drawing from deep red territory and don’t endanger other seats.

Not really with the Cincy seat, given rules against splitting the city.

You can make a Trump +10 seat with taking the bare legal minimum in Hamilton County, all of Clermont, and rural counties. Cincinnati turnout was poor. District shifted over 4 points to the right despite each county below being that.

You could but it’ll really mess up the map for a lot of incumbents.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

It'd be damn near impossible not to make such a map a dummymander. The 7th, which splits Cuyahoga a bit, only had the R incumbent win with 51%. The Cleveland area's already split into 5 districts. Trying to also split Cincinnati and Akron would require you to probably have a 6th snake in, and even with that you likely have one that's still a tough hold each election.

Drawing a 13-2 map where Trump won every district in 2024 by 10+ points is simple. There aren’t too many left trending areas in Ohio and you get most of them into the Columbus pack and the Cleveland pack. The map could go 10-5 in a very good Dem year but it’s very difficult for it to backfire and cause Dems to get more seats than they currently have. Maybe Sykes will win a Trump +10 seat or Kaptur a Trump +14 seat in 2026 but those seats are drawing from deep red territory and don’t endanger other seats.

This is wishcasting

Wishcasting that they would draw an extreme map? I think 10-2-3 is likelier. I doubt they will try to make OH-1 a red district. Kaptur will get a much redder district but will win in 2026 anyway, Sykes will get a moderately redder district and win comfortably in 2026.

I think it’s wishcasting to say a 13-2 map is a real possibility.  I agree with your assessment of what is most likely except that I think they give Landsman a HamCo vote sink and that Kaptur only gets a somewhat redder district rather than a far redder one.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

I hope they go for 13-2. Draw out Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman. Illinois got their 14-3 map and Ohio is actually now slightly redder than Illinois is blue. Trump+11.2 vs Harris+10.9 so there is no excuse not to go for it anymore.

It'd be damn near impossible not to make such a map a dummymander. The 7th, which splits Cuyahoga a bit, only had the R incumbent win with 51%. The Cleveland area's already split into 5 districts. Trying to also split Cincinnati and Akron would require you to probably have a 6th snake in, and even with that you likely have one that's still a tough hold each election.

Drawing a 13-2 map where Trump won every district in 2024 by 10+ points is simple. There aren’t too many left trending areas in Ohio and you get most of them into the Columbus pack and the Cleveland pack. The map could go 10-5 in a very good Dem year but it’s very difficult for it to backfire and cause Dems to get more seats than they currently have. Maybe Sykes will win a Trump +10 seat or Kaptur a Trump +14 seat in 2026 but those seats are drawing from deep red territory and don’t endanger other seats.

Not really with the Cincy seat, given rules against splitting the city.

You can make a Trump +10 seat with taking the bare legal minimum in Hamilton County, all of Clermont, and rural counties. Cincinnati turnout was poor. District shifted over 4 points to the right despite each county below being that.

You could but it’ll really mess up the map for a lot of incumbents.

Which is why it will never happen

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Depends on the new maps.