Without Tim Walz, what would have been the result in Minnesota?

[iceman]

If Tim Walz was not on the ticket, how do you think Minnesota voted?

Personally, I think It would be much closer, like 1.5% or something and would be the closest blue state.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't think it would have made a difference honestly.

[LBJer]

Harris would have still won.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

Walz probably didn't even net her a point in Minnesota. Outstate was blood red, Trump still flipped Nicollet and Blue Earth, and MSP metro shifted right. Hard to find evidence that her performance was impacted by him in any way.

[iceman]

Harris would have still won.

It’s a given theat she would still win, but I think the margins would have been different.

[seskoog]

D+3. She still would have won MN and done better then Hillary

[dw93]

Given the fact that Klobuchar significantly outperformed Harris, I don't think the overall outcome in the state would've been that different.

[Samof94]

I think the GOP could have flipped it if Biden had stayed on the ticket though.

[Eraserhead]

It would have been closer but not quite as close as 2016.

[Joe Rogaine]

Harris +3-3.5

It's impossible to know exactly how much of a benefit the hometown effect is, but I assume absolute best case Walz got her an extra half a point or so. I think a month ago ProgressiveModerate mentioned Minnesota's relatively mild swing had more to do with educational realignment when I speculated that Walz might've helped Harris there. Which is probably more accurate, but I don't know enough about Minnesota to say. Doesn't seem like the hometown hero bump is very pronounced anymore, if it exists at all.

I never realized how relatively inelastic Minnesota actually is too. Obama +10.2 in 2008, +7.7 in 2012. Not much higher than Wisconsin lol. I wonder if Biden really would've lost it had he stayed in, or if he would've just come dangerously close like Clinton.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Harris still wins by more than Clinton in 2016.

I'm honestly not sure Walz made a difference in any capacity with any aspect of the election. Nothing really mattered.

[Flo 2.0]

I think Walz actually made the difference. When comparing to the other Midwest states, I feel like the range of possibilities would be anywhere from Trump +2 to Harris +2. Walz did excite quite a few people who love his record as governor.

[EastOfEden]

I never realized how relatively inelastic Minnesota actually is too. Obama +10.2 in 2008, +7.7 in 2012. Not much higher than Wisconsin lol. I wonder if Biden really would've lost it had he stayed in, or if he would've just come dangerously close like Clinton.

It's strongly polarized, so voters don't swing, and turnout is always very high, so turnout dynamics don't do much either.

Universal* Law Of Minnesota Elections:

R percentage +/-2 = 45
D percentage +/-2 = (55 minus third-party percentage)

*universal unless you are Amy Klobuchar

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

I never realized how relatively inelastic Minnesota actually is too.

Saint Cloud German Catholics gonna racism come hell or high water

[Minnesota Mike]

Given the fact that Klobuchar significantly outperformed Harris, I don't think the overall outcome in the state would've been that different.

Ignore the Senate race in any analysis. Klobuchar is one of the most popular politicians all time in Minnesota and she ran against a HOF bad opponent. I'm actually amazed the senate race was that close.

FWIW I think Walz was worth maybe a couple of points. The total congressional vote was D+1 and the total state house vote about even. My guess is without Walz Harris would have won but it would have been by only 2-3 points.

[It's Time.]

Walz lost all his outstate appeal. He underperformed even Biden 2020 in many rural areas in 2022. Since he only had MSP appeal, he probably didn’t help Harris at all, that area was already sufficiently motivated to vote against Trump

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

Walz lost all his outstate appeal. He underperformed even Biden 2020 in many rural areas in 2022. Since he only had MSP appeal, he probably didn’t help Harris at all, that area was already sufficiently motivated to vote against Trump

I would have guessed pre election that if there is anywhere in the state that would get a Walz bump it would be his adopted MN hometown of Mankato and environs, but Trump managed to flip Blue Earth and Nicollet (also interesting because Clay/Moorhead did not fip). The Blue Earth results in particular were abysmal - Trump gained 1300 votes and Harris lost 800 over Biden.

When I texted one of my friends from outstate after the announcement his first response was "he isn't going to help at all out here" and he said that the COVID restrictions in particular did him the most damage in that area.

[Minnesota Mike]

Walz lost all his outstate appeal. He underperformed even Biden 2020 in many rural areas in 2022. Since he only had MSP appeal, he probably didn’t help Harris at all, that area was already sufficiently motivated to vote against Trump

I would have guessed pre election that if there is anywhere in the state that would get a Walz bump it would be his adopted MN hometown of Mankato and environs, but Trump managed to flip Blue Earth and Nicollet (also interesting because Clay/Moorhead did not fip). The Blue Earth results in particular were abysmal - Trump gained 1300 votes and Harris lost 800 over Biden.

When I texted one of my friends from outstate after the announcement his first response was "he isn't going to help at all out here" and he said that the COVID restrictions in particular did him the most damage in that area.

I live in that area of the state and that's 100% correct. In outstate MN the COVID lockdowns were extremely unpopular and Walz is viewed as the prime villain in that. Walz has lost whatever popularity he ever had outstate but is probably more popular than ever in the Twin Cities area where the COVID restrictions were more likely to be viewed as necessary and his liberal agenda as Governor is more of a plus than a minus.

[Vosem]

I never realized how relatively inelastic Minnesota actually is too. Obama +10.2 in 2008, +7.7 in 2012. Not much higher than Wisconsin lol. I wonder if Biden really would've lost it had he stayed in, or if he would've just come dangerously close like Clinton.

It's not so much that Minnesota is inelastic so much as McCain never really contested Michigan or Wisconsin, but continued treating Minnesota as a swing state; at that time it had a popular Republican Governor in Tim Pawlenty (who was a Republican VP finalist; it's interesting that, even though McCain didn't pick Pawlenty and Obama didn't pick Bayh, the 2008 results still look like they have some degree of Pawlenty bump for McCain in MN and Bayh bump for Obama in IN), and as the cycle unfolded it became clear that the Senate race there was the marquee Senate race of the cycle, with both parties throwing in huge amounts of resources. (It wasn't actually over a filibuster-proof majority -- MN-Sen was seat 59, not 60 -- but there was a belief that one of Specter/Snowe/Collins could be convinced to switch if Democrats were at 59, but probably not at 58. Curious how true that was).

Anyway, in 2008 Minnesota was treated as a frontline swing state, whereas both before and afterwards it was generally perceived as more Democratic than the most important states.

[sg0508]

Minneapolis is simply too strong so it seems, and thus, the GOP just cannot win the state for any race any longer.  Despite often cleaning up outside of the city, the city itself is big enough to win the entire state for Democrats, which they've consistently done for a decade.

Walz or no Walz? No difference if you ask me. Maybe one point.

[BigVic]

He would've flipped if

[Don't Tread on Me]

Minneapolis is simply too strong so it seems, and thus, the GOP just cannot win the state for any race any longer.  Despite often cleaning up outside of the city, the city itself is big enough to win the entire state for Democrats, which they've consistently done for a decade.

Walz or no Walz? No difference if you ask me. Maybe one point.

Keith Ellison was about 20,000 votes away from losing re-election in 2022. It's still a long shot, but I wouldn't say that the GOP couldn't win it under the right circumstances.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

Minneapolis is simply too strong so it seems, and thus, the GOP just cannot win the state for any race any longer.  Despite often cleaning up outside of the city, the city itself is big enough to win the entire state for Democrats, which they've consistently done for a decade.

Walz or no Walz? No difference if you ask me. Maybe one point.

Keith Ellison was about 20,000 votes away from losing re-election in 2022. It's still a long shot, but I wouldn't say that the GOP couldn't win it under the right circumstances.

This feels like the exception that proves the rule. One rather unpopular candidate overseeing a controversial local issue running in what should have been a wave year for Rs, and he still won. There have been closer races since 2006 but they've involved third parties. So we're going on 18 years, including D bloodbath cycles in 2010 and 2014, since we've seen a Republican win statewide in Minnesota.

[jaichind]

I never realized how relatively inelastic Minnesota actually is too. Obama +10.2 in 2008, +7.7 in 2012. Not much higher than Wisconsin lol. I wonder if Biden really would've lost it had he stayed in, or if he would've just come dangerously close like Clinton.

It's strongly polarized, so voters don't swing, and turnout is always very high, so turnout dynamics don't do much either.

Universal* Law Of Minnesota Elections:

R percentage +/-2 = 45
D percentage +/-2 = (55 minus third-party percentage)

*universal unless you are Amy Klobuchar

The MN congressional results were Dem 50.3 GOP 49.4