San Juan County, Colorado and the Mountain Swings to Harris

[ottermax]

I saw this lovely video highlighting the locally owned grocery store in Silverton, Colorado. Then I realized it was home to a fairly unique political fact - the 2nd greatest swing towards Harris in the country!

Colorado had a pretty significant swing to the left outside of Hispanic areas and I initially assumed it is just remote workers, but I actually wonder if something else is going on.

Maybe Coloradans are just resistant to populism? Or just have enough sensibility to see Trump for what he is? But then why vote for him in previous elections? Curious to hear more thoughts.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

San Juan County is tiny enough that almost any non-negligible raw vote swing is bound to be big in %.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One underdiscussed fact I think is wild is that both Henry and San Juan counties were #1 and #2 for strongest left shift nationally 2 cycles in a row.

[ottermax]

One underdiscussed fact I think is wild is that both Henry and San Juan counties were #1 and #2 for strongest left shift nationally 2 cycles in a row.

Yeah this doesn't feel that random to me. Also most of the mountain areas of CO swung to Harris this time and interestingly not the big resort towns most associated with wealth.

[dkxdjy]

Yeah it does feel like there is something going on beyond rich people moving in, I checked and the average house prices are around $500K there, which is more than the national average but nowhere near the extent I would have expected

[nclib]

One underdiscussed fact I think is wild is that both Henry and San Juan counties were #1 and #2 for strongest left shift nationally 2 cycles in a row.

Actually, San Juan was a close 3rd in 2020, after Rockdale, GA. But 5 of the top 10 Dem swings were the same in 2020 and 2024. And 3 of the top 10 GOP swings were the same in 2020 and 2024.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

San Juan County is tiny enough that almost any non-negligible raw vote swing is bound to be big in %.

I think it's probably this. The raw margins moved like this since 2020: Trump -14 votes, Kamala +34, third party +6. All of this happening with about 100 people being added to the county (nearly all in Silverton).

Meanwhile La Plata County, which also shifted D, had margins changes like this since 2020: Trump -201, Kamala +129, third party +94 with about 800 people being added to the county since 2020. But because La Plata is larger those shifts really only amount to a ~1% swing whereas in San Juan it comes out to ~6%. But I don't think Trump losing 14 votes is really that big of a shift - it could be 3-4 families moving out.

Yeah it does feel like there is something going on beyond rich people moving in, I checked and the average house prices are around $500K there, which is more than the national average but nowhere near the extent I would have expected

Houses in Silverton (which has all but 100 people in the county) are constrained by physical space and transport costs, but they're also physically constrained by space, and unlike Telluride or Aspen the town itself is modest enough that a super garish building would look massively out of place.

I also think that unlike the other mountain counties (except for Lake) there really isn't anywhere to go in San Juan County other than Silverton, which I think is going to draw a more upscale and politically engaged person. Obviously these places exist elsewhere (Ouray, Durango) but they're balanced out by other places that are growing as well (Ridgway, Bayfield) and are going to draw less upscale and more conservative voters. There just isn't an equivalent to Ridgway/Bayfield in San Juan County.

[EastOfEden]

San Juan is...quirky. It was a Perot county in 1992, 17% Anderson in 1980, 18% Nader in 2000.


It's also apparently the only county outside Alaska where walking is the most common commute to work. Probably not really practically related to its politics, but I do wonder if there might be a connection to my walkability/small towns with "alive" downtowns theory about Vermont.

[Raccoon]

give us this day our daily colorado thread.

In my area, the roaring fork valley though, there was a right ward swing as local democrats were seen as the pro growth ballot measures down the ballot. All the pro growth measures won. and I literally personally know people ready to leave the valley over it.

Someone who used to post about criminalizing trump over January 6th voted for Trump and against all the pro growth ballot measures.. and now she wants to leave the area.

[Aurelius2]

San Juan is not really a ski county (Silverton is so niche, and averages only 80 skiers a day, that it doesn't really count for that purpose imo). I noticed that non ski counties in mountain Colorado swung generally left and ski counties swung generally right. There are all sorts of cultural differences at play between ski towns and other mountain towns that I could go into extreme detail on, but I imagine one parsimonious explanation is that, generally speaking, ski towns are going to be both younger and more Hispanic (tons and tons of Hispanics in the service industries that exist in any major ski resort's gravitational pull) than non ski towns. And this is an election in which young people and Hispanics swung "bigly" to the right.

[GAinDC]

Western Colorado could be like the RGV but for Republicans. Protecting public lands, tackling climate change, and growing the recreation economy is really important there. If this incoming admin is seen as prioritizing fossil fuels at the expense of those other priorities, the Republicans could lose a lot of support.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

It's also apparently the only county outside Alaska where walking is the most common commute to work. Probably not really practically related to its politics, but I do wonder if there might be a connection to my walkability/small towns with "alive" downtowns theory about Vermont.

Could be but I really think this is just because something like seven in every eight people in the county live in Silverton, and unlike some other towns that anchor western counties, it isn't a big sprawling town with distinct neighborhoods - it's pretty much one central downtown. Even if the county had two Silvertons you'd inevitably have some people driving to commute between them, but because there's basically nowhere else to go in the county, all the people there who work are going to be working in the same place they live. Plus its location makes it less amenable to commuting to or from the other logical place to work in the area (Durango).

San Juan is not really a ski county (Silverton is so niche, and averages only 80 skiers a day, that it doesn't really count for that purpose imo). I noticed that non ski counties in mountain Colorado swung generally left and ski counties swung generally right. There are all sorts of cultural differences at play between ski towns and other mountain towns that I could go into extreme detail on, but I imagine one parsimonious explanation is that, generally speaking, ski towns are going to be both younger and more Hispanic (tons and tons of Hispanics in the service industries that exist in any major ski resort's gravitational pull) than non ski towns. And this is an election in which young people and Hispanics swung "bigly" to the right.

I haven't looked at any data to support this but my guess would be that the dynamic here has something to do with less affluent libs moving to non-ski areas because they're more affordable. I met a bunch of D-resembling Front Range transplants in these areas every time I was ever in town - places like Custer County, Montrose, Grand Junction. I've heard similar stories about places like Cortez and Oak Creek. Much more affordable than Telluride/Aspen/Crested Butte but the people I spoke to were still very happy with the available amenities.