Why did Trump do so well in Corona, Queens?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a heavily Hispanic neighborhood in Queens - it's not surprising Trump improved here, but it's an insane performance even relative to other Hispanic communities in NYC. As one can see from the map below, Trump outright won a good number of the precincts that make up Corona - precincts which are ~85% Hispanic and >5% white meaning Trump may have outright won the Hispanic vote in parts of Corona.

What stands out is even relative to 2022 Gov numbers, Trump massively improved here. The collection of Trump precincts went from Obama + 80 --> Clinton + 71 --> Biden + 48 --> Hochul + 17 --> Trump + 4.

Also worth noting this part of NYC has *extremely* low turnout. The Trump precincts represent just over 50k people but only casts about 6k votes for the past few Presidential elections, and in 2022 Gov fell short of 3k total votes.

This might be the only other case outside of TX and FL of Trump outright winning the Hispanic vote in an urban area.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

What stands out is even relative to 2022 Gov numbers, Trump massively improved here. The collection of Trump precincts went from Obama + 80 --> Clinton + 71 --> Biden + 48 --> Hochul + 17 --> Trump + 4.

Also worth noting this part of NYC has *extremely* low turnout. The Trump precincts represent just over 50k people but only casts about 6k votes for the past few Presidential elections, and in 2022 Gov fell short of 3k total votes.

The raw vote numbers for each of those races would be helpful, as would the CVAP numbers for Corona. Without that information, I'll assume that there was a D turnout collapse relative to 2020 among the Ecuadorians, Mexicans, and Dominicans of Corona, Queens.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What stands out is even relative to 2022 Gov numbers, Trump massively improved here. The collection of Trump precincts went from Obama + 80 --> Clinton + 71 --> Biden + 48 --> Hochul + 17 --> Trump + 4.

Also worth noting this part of NYC has *extremely* low turnout. The Trump precincts represent just over 50k people but only casts about 6k votes for the past few Presidential elections, and in 2022 Gov fell short of 3k total votes.

The raw vote numbers for each of those races would be helpful, as would the CVAP numbers for Corona. Without that information, I'll assume that there was a D turnout collapse relative to 2020 among the Ecuadorians, Mexicans, and Dominicans of Corona, Queens.

The main contiguous clump of Trump precincts CVAP are:

Total: 39,977
White: 823 (2.1%)
Hispanic: 33316 (83.3%)
Black: 1755 (4.4%)
Asian: 4778 (12.0%)
Native: 2803 (7.0%)
Pacific: 118 (0.3)

Also raw vote numbers for recent elections:

2012 Pres: 5070 -525
2016 Pres: 5857 - 924
2020 Pres: 5439 - 1968
2022 Gov: 1660 - 1160
2024 Pres: 2941 - 3186

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

What stands out is even relative to 2022 Gov numbers, Trump massively improved here. The collection of Trump precincts went from Obama + 80 --> Clinton + 71 --> Biden + 48 --> Hochul + 17 --> Trump + 4.

Also worth noting this part of NYC has *extremely* low turnout. The Trump precincts represent just over 50k people but only casts about 6k votes for the past few Presidential elections, and in 2022 Gov fell short of 3k total votes.

The raw vote numbers for each of those races would be helpful, as would the CVAP numbers for Corona. Without that information, I'll assume that there was a D turnout collapse relative to 2020 among the Ecuadorians, Mexicans, and Dominicans of Corona, Queens.

The main contiguous clump of Trump precincts CVAP are:

Total: 39,977
White: 823 (2.1%)
Hispanic: 33316 (83.3%)
Black: 1755 (4.4%)
Asian: 4778 (12.0%)
Native: 2803 (7.0%)
Pacific: 118 (0.3)

Also raw vote numbers for recent elections:

2012 Pres: 5070 -525
2016 Pres: 5857 - 924
2020 Pres: 5439 - 1968
2022 Gov: 1660 - 1160
2024 Pres: 2941 - 3186

So Presidential has gone from 5600 to 6700 to 7400 to 6100 votes, with 2022-GOV being less than half of 2024-PRES turnout.
Increased turnout from 2016->2020 favoring Trump and decreased turnout from 2020->2024 also favoring Trump fits my general priors for low-propensity R-curious voters turning out in 2020 and historically D voters not turning out in 2024.

[lfromnj]

Iirc isn’t it pretty South American heavy who are more likely to be Republican ? Combine that with the migrant crisis being heavier in this area .

[oldtimer]

"heavily Hispanic neighborhood" "not surprising Trump improved here"

Kinda amazed that it's now a natural occuring thought.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

What stands out is even relative to 2022 Gov numbers, Trump massively improved here. The collection of Trump precincts went from Obama + 80 --> Clinton + 71 --> Biden + 48 --> Hochul + 17 --> Trump + 4.

Also worth noting this part of NYC has *extremely* low turnout. The Trump precincts represent just over 50k people but only casts about 6k votes for the past few Presidential elections, and in 2022 Gov fell short of 3k total votes.

The raw vote numbers for each of those races would be helpful, as would the CVAP numbers for Corona. Without that information, I'll assume that there was a D turnout collapse relative to 2020 among the Ecuadorians, Mexicans, and Dominicans of Corona, Queens.

As MaynardFriedman has pointed out elsewhere, Puerto Ricans clearly swung less than other Hispanic ethnicities and this neighborhood appears to have fairly few.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Do you have data from Jamaica, I am interested to see how Trump performed in his hometown.

[Chief Justice PiT]

Iirc isn’t it pretty South American heavy who are more likely to be Republican ? Combine that with the migrant crisis being heavier in this area .

     Khuzi posted a link to a demographic breakdown earlier in the thread; it's 39% South American, with Mexicans, Ecuadorians, and Dominicans being a combined 81% of the Latino population. The South American share is more than double the average for New York, so that definitely could be a factor in why Trump did abnormally well here.

     While it's not big enough to really affect the bottom line that much, I would note that the second biggest South American nationality and fourth biggest Latino nationality overall in Corona is Colombian. Stopping illegal immigration is a hot button issue for Colombians because their own country is suffering the consequences of large number of illegal immigrants coming from Venezuela. That's not going to endear them to Democratic Party talking points about mass deportation.

[MaynardFriedman]

The massive influx of immigrants into Corona is actually primarily Ecuadorian iirc (Ecuador is a failed state and they are coming to the US in droves). Under these circumstances, you'll be seeing a lot of economic dislocation of other immigrant groups and dissastification at a historically diverse neighborhood turning into an Ecuadorian ethnic neighborhood

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because people miss the pandemic and Trump's mismanagement of it.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

It’s a very Hispanic neighborhood and Trump improved a lot with Hispanics?

This is anecdotal but when I was in Corona Park on the Fourth of July there were a lot of Hispanic families there and some of them did have Trump/MAGA gear. I didn’t see any other political stuff. So this result isn’t shocking.

[पिकाचु]

NY Mag had an article on Corona - posits that the problems was that it saw a pretty big influx of asylum seekers + QOL declines on Roosevelt Avenue w/ a particular issue with sex workers. Can't really comment on the accuracy of it, but fwiw when I've been in the area recently, I've seen a bunch of Venezuelan flags and gotten some weird solicitations. You also see a lot of stuff put up by the city about "cleaning up Roosevelt."

[MaynardFriedman]

NY Mag had an article on Corona - posits that the problems was that it saw a pretty big influx of asylum seekers + QOL declines on Roosevelt Avenue w/ a particular issue with sex workers. Can't really comment on the accuracy of it, but fwiw when I've been in the area recently, I've seen a bunch of Venezuelan flags and gotten some weird solicitations. You also see a lot of stuff put up by the city about "cleaning up Roosevelt."

The Venezuelans will particularly terrify everyone in the neighborhood. Long-time Ecuadorians and Colombians will have heard nasty stories from their relatives, which will be 'confirmed' based on prejudicial inspection. They'll then spread these stories to everyone else. Given the present state of Ecuador, there will be some sense that the 'rot' could be coming to the US. Scapegoating Venezuelans is remarkably easy for Latin Americans to do.

The irony is that most of the influx will be coming from Ecuadorians. I am sure that others in Corona can tell. Bizarre stuff.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Because his name is very associated with Corona.

But seriously, Trump did a lot better with Hispanics in general.

[lfromnj]

Because his name is very associated with Corona.

But seriously, Trump did a lot better with Hispanics in general.

But this is a pretty weak answer for why he did so good here specifically. Corona started with the same non-existent R baseline as other urban Hispanics in 2012/2016 yet it now seems noticeably to the right of other 90% Hispanic areas.

[Fuzzy Bear Stands With S019 And Israel]

"heavily Hispanic neighborhood" "not surprising Trump improved here"

Kinda amazed that it's now a natural occuring thought.

Hispanics include (A) native born citizens (especially Puerto Ricans in NYC), (B) those who immigrated here legally, and (C) those who are more devout in their religious faith than the average (both Catholics and Evangelicals, especially Pentecostals).  They are far more likely to be married, far more likely be family-oriented people, and far more likely to hold conservative social values.  (I would not be surprised if the Ecuadoran immigrants of Corona, Queens are far more religious than the average New Yorker.)

A good many Hispanics in America (including NYC) are more socially conservative then the average Left Wing Democrat they are exposed to in politics.  Once it dawns on them what the Woke Agenda actually implies, they are very much put off, and this was made worse by the amount of resources in NYC going to people illegally here; resources their tax dollars paid for and resources they never received because they came here legally, or were native born citizens whose families were either native Puerto Ricans or citizens of other countries that came here legally.  

They are concerned about things that political elites seem unconcerned about.  I remember the day Donald Trump held an impromptu rally in NYC to a group of folks who appeared to be mostly Hispanic.  He spoke to them about THEIR concerns about crime; about the bodega owner who was charged for killing a man trying to rob him.  And he had particular knowledge of their particular problems and the crowd appreciated it.  The crowd was agreeing with him.  I remember a man spontaneously changing "Viva Trump!".  That kind of spontaneous enthusiasm is real, and it comes in politics when a politician makes an authentic connection with their listener.  It should have been evident that day that Trump was making significant gains with Hispanics in NY, and he was doing so because he cared about what they REALLY cared about, not what they wanted to care about.

The politics of a healthy nation is a politics of a nation built on strong families.  It is within the family that individuals develop the sort of virtues that enable self-government to continue.  The politics of a sick nation is the sort of tribalism where appeals to tribe that drown out all else in the hope of the automatic summoning of a pre-cast majority to the polls.  That's the politics of our inner cities, for the most part.  It's also the politics of the Old South.  The hope for self-government in this election comes from the fact that millions of people were able to reject group appeals and assess their own self-interest, and the interest of their families and vote accordingly.  This is something Democrats don't get, and they can't live on having actually gotten this in elections past.

[Linda Van der Hampel]

Covid?