Who are the most vulnerable house incumbents on each side in 2026?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who are the most vulnerable house incumbents on each side in 2026?

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Democrats: Cuellar
Republicans: probably Perry, but I can see an argument for MacKenzie or Bacon

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Fitzpatrick won't survive a Shapiro landslide

Lawler will lose reelection Hochul landslide
NJ kean Jr loses
IA Miller Meeks

That's 3 already

[ottermax]

Gray, Tran, Whitesides, Harder, and Costa might be at risk in California... a drop in turnout tends to help Republicans still, especially for Gray and Whitesides.

Davis in NC could have a similar turnout challenge, and Gillen in NY also.

The rest of the Democrats look pretty safe beyond Gonzalez and Cuellar who might be wiped if the RGV starts voting like Appalachia.

Republicans have a lot to defend though...
The 3 PA Republicans
Miller-Meeks and Nunn in IA
Bacon
Ciscomani and Schweikert (still pretty close races this year despite the big red shift in AZ)
Van Orden
Kiggans
Calvert and Kim in CA
Evans and Hurd in CO
Barrett and James in MI
Zinke in MT
Kean in NJ

Some major underperformers on the GOP side to watch for:
Hamadeh
Boebert
Luna
Max Miller
Carey (OH-15)
Wittman
Wied

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are destined to lose the H in 26

[iceman]

The Rs are destined to lose the H in 26

yeah just like your 319 map

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are destined to lose the H in 26

yeah just like your 319 map

They are gonna be redistricting out by 2030 anyways, and Harris picked Walz, instead of Shapiro, I told her not to. If she was gonna win a landslide okay pick him. You pick Shapiro as he will be either the VP or nominee in 28


It was a learning experience not to contest FL, Powell and Allred got blasted


Common sense is that Rs are gonna lose Bacon, Barrett, James, Fitzpatrick, Lawler, Kean, PA 7/8 with Shapiro running for reelection

[New World Man]

Dems
Cuellar,Gonzalex-TX,Moskowitz. Assuming Golden runs for senate.

R's
Bacon
Van Orden
Meeks
Perry
Lawler

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Barrett is not getting reelected , Ds are set to gain at least 10 seats

[New World Man]

Gray, Tran, Whitesides, Harder, and Costa might be at risk in California... a drop in turnout tends to help Republicans still, especially for Gray and Whitesides.

Davis in NC could have a similar turnout challenge, and Gillen in NY also.

The rest of the Democrats look pretty safe beyond Gonzalez and Cuellar who might be wiped if the RGV starts voting like Appalachia.

Republicans have a lot to defend though...
The 3 PA Republicans
Miller-Meeks and Nunn in IA
Bacon
Ciscomani and Schweikert (still pretty close races this year despite the big red shift in AZ)
Van Orden
Kiggans
Calvert and Kim in CA
Evans and Hurd in CO
Barrett and James in MI
Zinke in MT
Kean in NJ

Some major underperformers on the GOP side to watch for:
Hamadeh
Boebert
Luna
Max Miller
Carey (OH-15)
Wittman
Wied

The 8th has always been represented by traditional Reagan/Bush Republicans like Mike Gallagher. If Wied is too weird he could be vulnerable.

[coloradocowboi]

The key word here being *most* vulnerable:

Republicans: Begich, Schweikert, Calvert, Evans, MMM, Nunn, Barrett, Bacon, Lawler (assuming he runs), Mackenzie, Bresnahan, Perry, Kiggans, van Orden

Democrats: Gray, Moskowitz, Golden (assuming he runs), Sykes, Kaptur

I'm assuming a D-leaning midterm and for the Ohio dems to get shafted in redistricting. Another Utah incumbent R could be vulnerable for the same reason, but it's far too early to speculate on that one.