Will Republicans win the House PV but not get a majority sometime this decade?

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Obviously, it's not going to happen in a good Democratic year, but it sure seems like it could happen in a neutral year or even good Republican year.

[Compuzled_One]

Yes, at least the raw one that doesn't take into account uncontested seats. Could happen in 2028 or, in the more bad scenarios, 2026.

[EastOfEden]

It's certainly possible. D vote distribution has become dramatically more efficient, that's for sure.

[Skill and Chance]

Very plausible for 2028 if the presidential election is close (keep in mind they tend to outrun the R presidential candidate consistently in the PV, including this year!) or if 2030 is a 2022 style underwhelming midterm.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

2028 is the only year in which I could see it happening, but it would probably have to be very close in both directions, something like a 219-216 Democratic House while Republicans win the PV by 1% or less.

[Skill and Chance]

Plausible scenarios:

2026: Basically a reverse 2022- there isn't a lot of federal policy change beyond taxes, so D's are particularly ticked off/high turnout in red states with R legislatures while R's hold onto most of their urban/blue state gains from 2024 but don't improve further.

2028: Vance does worse than Trump in non-Southern suburbs, but better with Hispanic voters and in very religious rural areas. 

2030: Underwhelming, but R-leaning midterm with a Democratic president and R gains concentrated in the South/West. 

2026 is by far the least likely of the 3 possibilities.  2028 feels like the most likely.  Would be wild to watch everyone do a 180 on EC/apportionment/population distribution if Dems get a trifecta while narrowly losing the popular vote at every level.  This is surprisingly plausible.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

No, because in 26 it's in the 319 blue wall. They won't get a 24 Environment where they have Harris and Walz