Which single state had the most shocking result this election?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Definitely Texas. I never would've imagined Trump doing far better than he did in 2016 there. Blexas is not happening anytime soon.

New Jersey was also surprising, but a bit less so because I was already expecting the entire NYC metro to swing right.

This. There was a consensus that NJ would swing/trend right given the 2021/2022 elections there and in NYC. But TX was totally out of left field. the DFW counties having the same-sized rightward swing as the Bay Area (and the nation as a whole) was certainly quite a surprise.

With reguards to DFW, Collin County was especially shocking. Super-fast growing, highest educational attainment in the state, had pretty consistently been getting bluer even pre-2016, ect. Seems like part of problem was the fairly large Asian population in the County, but I'm still not sure why the County as a whole saw so much reversion.

One theory is that a lot of TX suburbs are more diverse than people give them credit for. I bet more don't realize Collin and Denton Counties are only ~50% white. Williamson County outside Austin is only 55% white. This cycle, Trump's gains amongst non-whites were pretty universal, but it also seems like there was an element of Dem turnout amongst non-whites just being really bad - and that uneven turnout is going to be felt most heavily in a County who's electorate is closer to 50% white/50% non-white.

Like go on the NYT swing map and look at the Counties in the southeast that had the largest 2020-->2024 swings - they tend to be closely divided between white and black populations, whereas more homogenously white and black counties had smaller shifts right. This suggests that a lot of Harris's problem in this region wasn't bad particularly bad persuasion with white or black voters, rather white voters turning out at higher rates relative to blacks.

I could see the argument she suffered from a similar problem in many of these large urban/suburban TX counties - even though it's not deep south levels of polarization, in all of them (except Travis and Hays), the white vote is still pretty far to the right of the non-white vote.

The big swings in the Nashville suburban counties were pretty shocking too.

I think the "big swings" out of the Nashville suburbs is a bit overrated. Only Rutherford and Williamson Counties had swings over 5% right - Rutherford can be attributed to the Dem base in the County being pretty non-white while Williamson seems like a self-sorting thing and has pretty unique cultural dynamics. Wilson, Sumner, Robertson, and Cheatham Counties all had relatively modest swings right given what was going on in TN overall.

[Tekken_Guy]

Definitely Texas. I never would've imagined Trump doing far better than he did in 2016 there. Blexas is not happening anytime soon.

New Jersey was also surprising, but a bit less so because I was already expecting the entire NYC metro to swing right.

This. There was a consensus that NJ would swing/trend right given the 2021/2022 elections there and in NYC. But TX was totally out of left field. the DFW counties having the same-sized rightward swing as the Bay Area (and the nation as a whole) was certainly quite a surprise.

With reguards to DFW, Collin County was especially shocking. Super-fast growing, highest educational attainment in the state, had pretty consistently been getting bluer even pre-2016, ect. Seems like part of problem was the fairly large Asian population in the County, but I'm still not sure why the County as a whole saw so much reversion.

One theory is that a lot of TX suburbs are more diverse than people give them credit for. I bet more don't realize Collin and Denton Counties are only ~50% white. Williamson County outside Austin is only 55% white. This cycle, Trump's gains amongst non-whites were pretty universal, but it also seems like there was an element of Dem turnout amongst non-whites just being really bad - and that uneven turnout is going to be felt most heavily in a County who's electorate is closer to 50% white/50% non-white.

Like go on the NYT swing map and look at the Counties in the southeast that had the largest 2020-->2024 swings - they tend to be closely divided between white and black populations, whereas more homogenously white and black counties had smaller shifts right. This suggests that a lot of Harris's problem in this region wasn't bad particularly bad persuasion with white or black voters, rather white voters turning out at higher rates relative to blacks.

I could see the argument she suffered from a similar problem in many of these large urban/suburban TX counties - even though it's not deep south levels of polarization, in all of them (except Travis and Hays), the white vote is still pretty far to the right of the non-white vote.

The big swings in the Nashville suburban counties were pretty shocking too.

I think the "big swings" out of the Nashville suburbs is a bit overrated. Only Rutherford and Williamson Counties had swings over 5% left - Rutherford can be attributed to the Dem base in the County being pretty non-white while Williamson seems like a self-sorting thing and has pretty unique cultural dynamics. Wilson, Sumner, Robertson, and Cheatham Counties all had relatively modest swings right given what was going on in TN overall.

I meant the swings back to the right this year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Definitely Texas. I never would've imagined Trump doing far better than he did in 2016 there. Blexas is not happening anytime soon.

New Jersey was also surprising, but a bit less so because I was already expecting the entire NYC metro to swing right.

This. There was a consensus that NJ would swing/trend right given the 2021/2022 elections there and in NYC. But TX was totally out of left field. the DFW counties having the same-sized rightward swing as the Bay Area (and the nation as a whole) was certainly quite a surprise.

With reguards to DFW, Collin County was especially shocking. Super-fast growing, highest educational attainment in the state, had pretty consistently been getting bluer even pre-2016, ect. Seems like part of problem was the fairly large Asian population in the County, but I'm still not sure why the County as a whole saw so much reversion.

One theory is that a lot of TX suburbs are more diverse than people give them credit for. I bet more don't realize Collin and Denton Counties are only ~50% white. Williamson County outside Austin is only 55% white. This cycle, Trump's gains amongst non-whites were pretty universal, but it also seems like there was an element of Dem turnout amongst non-whites just being really bad - and that uneven turnout is going to be felt most heavily in a County who's electorate is closer to 50% white/50% non-white.

Like go on the NYT swing map and look at the Counties in the southeast that had the largest 2020-->2024 swings - they tend to be closely divided between white and black populations, whereas more homogenously white and black counties had smaller shifts right. This suggests that a lot of Harris's problem in this region wasn't bad particularly bad persuasion with white or black voters, rather white voters turning out at higher rates relative to blacks.

I could see the argument she suffered from a similar problem in many of these large urban/suburban TX counties - even though it's not deep south levels of polarization, in all of them (except Travis and Hays), the white vote is still pretty far to the right of the non-white vote.

The big swings in the Nashville suburban counties were pretty shocking too.

I think the "big swings" out of the Nashville suburbs is a bit overrated. Only Rutherford and Williamson Counties had swings over 5% left - Rutherford can be attributed to the Dem base in the County being pretty non-white while Williamson seems like a self-sorting thing and has pretty unique cultural dynamics. Wilson, Sumner, Robertson, and Cheatham Counties all had relatively modest swings right given what was going on in TN overall.

I meant the swings back to the right this year.

Oops it should say 5% right - my point still holds though - the TN suburbs on the whole didn't have some massive shift right this cycle.

[Tekken_Guy]

Definitely Texas. I never would've imagined Trump doing far better than he did in 2016 there. Blexas is not happening anytime soon.

New Jersey was also surprising, but a bit less so because I was already expecting the entire NYC metro to swing right.

This. There was a consensus that NJ would swing/trend right given the 2021/2022 elections there and in NYC. But TX was totally out of left field. the DFW counties having the same-sized rightward swing as the Bay Area (and the nation as a whole) was certainly quite a surprise.

With reguards to DFW, Collin County was especially shocking. Super-fast growing, highest educational attainment in the state, had pretty consistently been getting bluer even pre-2016, ect. Seems like part of problem was the fairly large Asian population in the County, but I'm still not sure why the County as a whole saw so much reversion.

One theory is that a lot of TX suburbs are more diverse than people give them credit for. I bet more don't realize Collin and Denton Counties are only ~50% white. Williamson County outside Austin is only 55% white. This cycle, Trump's gains amongst non-whites were pretty universal, but it also seems like there was an element of Dem turnout amongst non-whites just being really bad - and that uneven turnout is going to be felt most heavily in a County who's electorate is closer to 50% white/50% non-white.

Like go on the NYT swing map and look at the Counties in the southeast that had the largest 2020-->2024 swings - they tend to be closely divided between white and black populations, whereas more homogenously white and black counties had smaller shifts right. This suggests that a lot of Harris's problem in this region wasn't bad particularly bad persuasion with white or black voters, rather white voters turning out at higher rates relative to blacks.

I could see the argument she suffered from a similar problem in many of these large urban/suburban TX counties - even though it's not deep south levels of polarization, in all of them (except Travis and Hays), the white vote is still pretty far to the right of the non-white vote.

The big swings in the Nashville suburban counties were pretty shocking too.

I think the "big swings" out of the Nashville suburbs is a bit overrated. Only Rutherford and Williamson Counties had swings over 5% left - Rutherford can be attributed to the Dem base in the County being pretty non-white while Williamson seems like a self-sorting thing and has pretty unique cultural dynamics. Wilson, Sumner, Robertson, and Cheatham Counties all had relatively modest swings right given what was going on in TN overall.

I meant the swings back to the right this year.

Oops it should say 5% right - my point still holds though - the TN suburbs on the whole didn't have some massive shift right this cycle.

ExtremeRepublican probably knows what's going on in Williamson. Why did it swing right so much?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Definitely Texas. I never would've imagined Trump doing far better than he did in 2016 there. Blexas is not happening anytime soon.

New Jersey was also surprising, but a bit less so because I was already expecting the entire NYC metro to swing right.

This. There was a consensus that NJ would swing/trend right given the 2021/2022 elections there and in NYC. But TX was totally out of left field. the DFW counties having the same-sized rightward swing as the Bay Area (and the nation as a whole) was certainly quite a surprise.

With reguards to DFW, Collin County was especially shocking. Super-fast growing, highest educational attainment in the state, had pretty consistently been getting bluer even pre-2016, ect. Seems like part of problem was the fairly large Asian population in the County, but I'm still not sure why the County as a whole saw so much reversion.

One theory is that a lot of TX suburbs are more diverse than people give them credit for. I bet more don't realize Collin and Denton Counties are only ~50% white. Williamson County outside Austin is only 55% white. This cycle, Trump's gains amongst non-whites were pretty universal, but it also seems like there was an element of Dem turnout amongst non-whites just being really bad - and that uneven turnout is going to be felt most heavily in a County who's electorate is closer to 50% white/50% non-white.

Like go on the NYT swing map and look at the Counties in the southeast that had the largest 2020-->2024 swings - they tend to be closely divided between white and black populations, whereas more homogenously white and black counties had smaller shifts right. This suggests that a lot of Harris's problem in this region wasn't bad particularly bad persuasion with white or black voters, rather white voters turning out at higher rates relative to blacks.

I could see the argument she suffered from a similar problem in many of these large urban/suburban TX counties - even though it's not deep south levels of polarization, in all of them (except Travis and Hays), the white vote is still pretty far to the right of the non-white vote.

The big swings in the Nashville suburban counties were pretty shocking too.

I think the "big swings" out of the Nashville suburbs is a bit overrated. Only Rutherford and Williamson Counties had swings over 5% left - Rutherford can be attributed to the Dem base in the County being pretty non-white while Williamson seems like a self-sorting thing and has pretty unique cultural dynamics. Wilson, Sumner, Robertson, and Cheatham Counties all had relatively modest swings right given what was going on in TN overall.

I meant the swings back to the right this year.

Oops it should say 5% right - my point still holds though - the TN suburbs on the whole didn't have some massive shift right this cycle.

ExtremeRepublican probably knows what's going on in Williamson. Why did it swing right so much?

He gave a detailed response in another thread - but basically self-sorting of upper-middle-class Conservatives into the County. There are generally few wealthy Republican suburbs in Republican states these days, so Williamson County has become sort of a hotbed for these types.

[Samof94]

Why did Oregon and Washington hold up so well for Harris?

[ottermax]

Why did Oregon and Washington hold up so well for Harris?

I think the democracy and abortion arguments worked very well with working class white voters or educated secular white suburban moderates who might have been tempted to vote Republican...

In the South where religiosity is higher we see that these suburbs shifted right.

Other more secular Sunbelt areas don't have a ton of very white suburbs, and whiter suburban areas are more religious. We also saw swings for Harris or neutral swings in the Upper Midwest suburbs.

The one area that confuses me is New England in this regard as there were pretty strong swings towards Trump even in the secular white areas of these states, so not sure why he overperformed there in particular.

[iceman]

Why did Oregon and Washington hold up so well for Harris?

the Pacific northwest seems to be an area which are resistant to trends and waves.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why did Oregon and Washington hold up so well for Harris?

I think the democracy and abortion arguments worked very well with working class white voters or educated secular white suburban moderates who might have been tempted to vote Republican...

In the South where religiosity is higher we see that these suburbs shifted right.

Other more secular Sunbelt areas don't have a ton of very white suburbs, and whiter suburban areas are more religious. We also saw swings for Harris or neutral swings in the Upper Midwest suburbs.

The one area that confuses me is New England in this regard as there were pretty strong swings towards Trump even in the secular white areas of these states, so not sure why he overperformed there in particular.

New England I think there were 2 big reasons:

-A lot of negative media about the major cities and Dem governance - especially NYC
-Biden 2020 may have had some unique appeal to this region, especially ethnic whites and Catholics, so maintaining 2020 numbers as a baseline was always an uphill task for Harris

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

Not the most surprising by any stretch but I'm kinda surprised Iowa hasn't come up. The Selzer Poll was obviously wrong, but it was spectacularly wrong, even as Kansas/Nebraska trended left as expected, and I think people pictured Blue Wall focus + Walz would translate into stopping some of the bleeding that has been happening there since 2012. Instead it accelerated rightward.