What do you realistically think Biden's PV ceiling would be had he stayed in the race

[VALibertarian]

I was going to ask in the other Harris post retrospective thread but I'm curious what you guys think, as surely I have to think some if not most of the anti-Trump coalition would have come home and the environment is so polarized.

Honestly I think at least 3% loss is guaranteed but I can see Joe eeking out 45%

[wbrocks67]

Given Trump will likely end up about +1.4 or +1.5 in the end right now, I think something like 3-4% could've been likely.

May have been more muted in the swing states, where like MI/WI/PA may have been like a 3-4% loss instead of 0-2% but I think states like NJ, IL, NY, CA could've collapsed another 3-5%.

I think something like 51-47 maybe. 51% is probably the absolute maximum for Trump and 46-47% is probably the lowest for Biden.

[iceman]

Trump 54%
Scranton Joe 43%
Third parties 3%


Trump wins NJ, NM, MN, VA, ME, NH

HI, IL, NY, RI, CT, CO, OR would be in single digits

the current 7 battleground states are not even below 5% margin

turnout would be lesser than about 5 million from what we have now.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Trump definitely gains MN and NH, one of ME-AL, NE-02, NJ, NM, VA goes down on a bad night / two or three of those on a really bad night

Biden gets 46-47% (rounded) in the PV, Trump gets 49-52% (rounded) depending on third party share

No Dem house gains in NY / only Garcia loses in CA

[jaichind]

About the same as Harris

[bagelman]

His ceiling is Harris's result, but he probably does worse.

[riverwalk7]

I think Trump still gets 50%, but Biden gets 45% instead.