"A majority of Republicans support gay marriage" - what do the Cast Vote Records say?

[Aurelius2]

Sorry guys, you're getting Colusa County, CA today, not Alameda.

Same-sex marriage (Proposition 3)
Trump: 24.0 Yes, 76.0 No
Harris: 74.6 Yes, 25.4 No
Kennedy: 60.2 Yes, 39.8 No
Oliver: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No
Stein: 90.0 Yes, 10.0 No

I've started looking at the Alameda files to figure out how it all fits together. Hopefully tomorrow, if the 4GB of JSON files don't end up crashing my laptop.

Harris voters only being Yes+49 is a bit of a shocker tbh.

Colusa is a small, very rural farming county. I will bet this turns out to be nonrepresentative of California.

[CentristRepublican]

Sorry guys, you're getting Colusa County, CA today, not Alameda.

Same-sex marriage (Proposition 3)
Trump: 24.0 Yes, 76.0 No
Harris: 74.6 Yes, 25.4 No
Kennedy: 60.2 Yes, 39.8 No
Oliver: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No
Stein: 90.0 Yes, 10.0 No

I've started looking at the Alameda files to figure out how it all fits together. Hopefully tomorrow, if the 4GB of JSON files don't end up crashing my laptop.

Harris voters only being Yes+49 is a bit of a shocker tbh.

Colusa is a small, very rural farming county. I will bet this turns out to be nonrepresentative of California.

Fair enough, but still.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Some bizarre third party ones to me:

Jefferson County, CO CVR:
Abortion (Amendment 79)
Terry: 20.9 Yes, 79.1 No

A pro-abortion voter for Randall Terry (who is mostly known for absolutist pro-life views) is a bizarre combination.  I'm surprised there are any of them, much less 1/5 of his voters.

Sorry guys, you're getting Colusa County, CA today, not Alameda.

Same-sex marriage (Proposition 3)
Oliver: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No

Half of people who voted for a gay candidate for president oppose gay marriage.  Maybe it's on "keep it out of state constitutions" libertarian lines, but that's wild.

[Aurelius2]

Some bizarre third party ones to me:

Jefferson County, CO CVR:
Abortion (Amendment 79)
Terry: 20.9 Yes, 79.1 No

A pro-abortion voter for Randall Terry (who is mostly known for absolutist pro-life views) is a bizarre combination.  I'm surprised there are any of them, much less 1/5 of his voters.

Sorry guys, you're getting Colusa County, CA today, not Alameda.

Same-sex marriage (Proposition 3)
Oliver: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No

Half of people who voted for a gay candidate for president oppose gay marriage.  Maybe it's on "keep it out of state constitutions" libertarian lines, but that's wild.

1. The Oliver number is based on a sample size of 22.
2. Libertarian is a protest vote for most people, they don't care overmuch about the candidate's actual positions.

[TheReckoning]

Why did SSM really underperform abortion rights in CA, compared to Prop 1 in 2022?Are abortion rights really more popular than SSM?

The voters that turned out in 2024 but not 2022 are likely more socially conservative in general, particularly in SW states like California.

What makes you think so? And why would this be the case?

Especially this cycle, it really does seem like there was just a large basket of typically not engaged voters who came out for Trump - less so for Harris. One early sign was in early voting data, 2020 and 2022 non-voters were pretty R-friendly in registration even though a large chunk of this block should be young voters entering the electorate that one would expect to lean Dem.

And ofc Trump voters are more likely to take up the Conservative/right-wing position on these ballot initiatives.

Wouldn’t these “Trump only” voters probably not care very much about issues like SSM, though? Historically, social conservatives were a very politically engaged group?

     If they're going to vote on propositions, I could see them adopting a knee-jerk anti-liberal line. They may not care about SSM as an issue, but they are convinced Democrats must be wrong on it.

Why did abortion outperform Harris in every single state then, while SSM was even in CA?

[RI]

Jefferson County, CO CVR:

Same-sex marriage (Amendment J)
Harris: 91.4 Yes, 8.6 No
Trump: 35.6 Yes, 64.4 No
Kennedy: 67.7 Yes, 32.3 No
Oliver: 78.0 Yes, 22.0 No
Stein: 83.9 Yes, 16.1 No
West: 78.4 Yes, 21.6 No
Terry: 26.6 Yes, 73.4 No
Huber: 56.1 Yes, 43.9 No

Abortion (Amendment 79)
Harris: 92.3 Yes, 7.7 No
Trump: 25.0 Yes, 75.0 No
Kennedy: 62.0 Yes, 38.0 No
Oliver: 59.3 Yes, 40.7 No
Stein: 85.2 Yes, 14.8 No
West: 74.5 Yes, 25.5 No
Terry: 20.9 Yes, 79.1 No
Huber: 58.8 Yes, 41.2 No

Undervotes excluded.

You missed Sonski. His supporters were 6.2 Yes, 93.8 No on gay marriage and 0.8 Yes and 99.2 No on abortion. Literally one of his voters backed Amendment 79.

Sonski supporters also voted:
Amendment 80 (School choice): 76.1 Yes, 23.9 No
Proposition KK (Tax on guns for mental health): 59.5 Yes, 40.5 No
Proposition 128 (Serve 85%+ sentence before parole eligibility): 49.6 Yes, 50.4 No
Proposition 130 ($350m for police officers): 49.6 Yes, 50.4 No
Proposition 131 (Top 4 primary): 52.7 Yes, 47.3 No

[RI]

SSM support among Harris supporters in Jefferson County, Colorado:

[Aurelius2]

SSM support among Harris supporters in Jefferson County, Colorado:

Could you do it for Trump as well?

Jefferson County, CO CVR:

Same-sex marriage (Amendment J)
Harris: 91.4 Yes, 8.6 No
Trump: 35.6 Yes, 64.4 No
Kennedy: 67.7 Yes, 32.3 No
Oliver: 78.0 Yes, 22.0 No
Stein: 83.9 Yes, 16.1 No
West: 78.4 Yes, 21.6 No
Terry: 26.6 Yes, 73.4 No
Huber: 56.1 Yes, 43.9 No

Abortion (Amendment 79)
Harris: 92.3 Yes, 7.7 No
Trump: 25.0 Yes, 75.0 No
Kennedy: 62.0 Yes, 38.0 No
Oliver: 59.3 Yes, 40.7 No
Stein: 85.2 Yes, 14.8 No
West: 74.5 Yes, 25.5 No
Terry: 20.9 Yes, 79.1 No
Huber: 58.8 Yes, 41.2 No

Undervotes excluded.

You missed Sonski. His supporters were 6.2 Yes, 93.8 No on gay marriage and 0.8 Yes and 99.2 No on abortion. Literally one of his voters backed Amendment 79.

Sonski supporters also voted:
Amendment 80 (School choice): 76.1 Yes, 23.9 No
Proposition KK (Tax on guns for mental health): 59.5 Yes, 40.5 No
Proposition 128 (Serve 85%+ sentence before parole eligibility): 49.6 Yes, 50.4 No
Proposition 130 ($350m for police officers): 49.6 Yes, 50.4 No
Proposition 131 (Top 4 primary): 52.7 Yes, 47.3 No

Yeah, I skipped the write ins. But because there's clearly interest in Sonski here I'll run the numbers for him anyway on any further counties I do.

[RI]

SSM support among Harris supporters in Jefferson County, Colorado:

Could you do it for Trump as well?

Here it is:



There were two precincts where SSM had majority support among Trump voters.

[ottermax]

Sorry guys, you're getting Colusa County, CA today, not Alameda.

Same-sex marriage (Proposition 3)
Trump: 24.0 Yes, 76.0 No
Harris: 74.6 Yes, 25.4 No
Kennedy: 60.2 Yes, 39.8 No
Oliver: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No
Stein: 90.0 Yes, 10.0 No

I've started looking at the Alameda files to figure out how it all fits together. Hopefully tomorrow, if the 4GB of JSON files don't end up crashing my laptop.

Harris voters only being Yes+49 is a bit of a shocker tbh.

Colusa is a small, very rural farming county. I will bet this turns out to be nonrepresentative of California.

Fair enough, but still.

Colusa's Democratic voters are probably quite Hispanic so we would expect some overlap of No and Harris voters. It would be really interesting to see how strongly that correlates with Hispanic population if we have enough county records.

[cg41386]

Some bizarre third party ones to me:

Jefferson County, CO CVR:
Abortion (Amendment 79)
Terry: 20.9 Yes, 79.1 No

A pro-abortion voter for Randall Terry (who is mostly known for absolutist pro-life views) is a bizarre combination.  I'm surprised there are any of them, much less 1/5 of his voters.

Sorry guys, you're getting Colusa County, CA today, not Alameda.

Same-sex marriage (Proposition 3)
Oliver: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No

Half of people who voted for a gay candidate for president oppose gay marriage.  Maybe it's on "keep it out of state constitutions" libertarian lines, but that's wild.

“Pro-abortion”  (insert eye-roll here)

[Aurelius2]

Sorry guys, you're getting Colusa County, CA today, not Alameda.

Same-sex marriage (Proposition 3)
Trump: 24.0 Yes, 76.0 No
Harris: 74.6 Yes, 25.4 No
Kennedy: 60.2 Yes, 39.8 No
Oliver: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No
Stein: 90.0 Yes, 10.0 No

I've started looking at the Alameda files to figure out how it all fits together. Hopefully tomorrow, if the 4GB of JSON files don't end up crashing my laptop.

Harris voters only being Yes+49 is a bit of a shocker tbh.

Colusa is a small, very rural farming county. I will bet this turns out to be nonrepresentative of California.

Fair enough, but still.

Colusa's Democratic voters are probably quite Hispanic so we would expect some overlap of No and Harris voters. It would be really interesting to see how strongly that correlates with Hispanic population if we have enough county records.

And specifically they are rural Hispanics. I've looked at some of the city level SOVCs for Prop 3 results and urban Hispanic cities (and Hispanic towns in socially-progressive areas) appear to have higher YES rates than in Valley farm country.

[lfromnj]

Something interesting as well is Hispanic Trump voters are quite young while Harris voters are older .

[ProgressiveModerate]

Something interesting as well is Hispanic Trump voters are quite young while Harris voters are older .

This seems to be true amongst black voters as well - likely because older non-white voters have more attachment to the civil rights era that keeps them Dem, and ironically for liberals non-whites growing up in a more racially integrated world causes them to behave more like their white peers politically.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Something interesting as well is Hispanic Trump voters are quite young while Harris voters are older .

I wouldn’t say this is surprising as younger voters are less likely in general to vote based on ethnicity as older voters .

Thus you see younger voters regardless of race vote more based on ideology or vibes around that ideology than ethnic solidarity or loyalty. That’s a fantastic development by the way

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Something interesting as well is Hispanic Trump voters are quite young while Harris voters are older .

I wouldn’t say this is surprising as younger voters are less likely in general to vote based on ethnicity as older voters .

Thus you see younger voters regardless of race vote more based on ideology or vibes around that ideology than ethnic solidarity or loyalty. That’s a fantastic development by the way

Agreed on that, but the general expectation is that younger voters of every race are more ideologically left-wing than their parents and grandparents are. I do suspect younger CA Latinos are more left-leaning than their elders, but this doesn't necessarily mean they have a higher D floor.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would be curious to see if there are more granular levels of support for gay rights amongst Trump supporters. Like how many would support same-sex unions or a ban on homosexual intercourse?

[Reactionary Libertarian]

I would be curious to see if there are more granular levels of support for gay rights amongst Trump supporters. Like how many would support same-sex unions or a ban on homosexual intercourse?

I do think there is a difference between not *affirmatively* voting for same sex marriage and actively voting against it.

[TheReckoning]

Something interesting as well is Hispanic Trump voters are quite young while Harris voters are older .

I wouldn’t say this is surprising as younger voters are less likely in general to vote based on ethnicity as older voters .

Thus you see younger voters regardless of race vote more based on ideology or vibes around that ideology than ethnic solidarity or loyalty. That’s a fantastic development by the way

You have said that one reason why Indians voted Democratic was because a lot of Indians immigrated in the 1990s and loved Bill Clinton. What about Indians who immigrated in the 80s? Did they love Reagan and vote Republican?

[Chief Justice PiT]

Something interesting as well is Hispanic Trump voters are quite young while Harris voters are older .

I wouldn’t say this is surprising as younger voters are less likely in general to vote based on ethnicity as older voters .

Thus you see younger voters regardless of race vote more based on ideology or vibes around that ideology than ethnic solidarity or loyalty. That’s a fantastic development by the way

Agreed on that, but the general expectation is that younger voters of every race are more ideologically left-wing than their parents and grandparents are. I do suspect younger CA Latinos are more left-leaning than their elders, but this doesn't necessarily mean they have a higher D floor.

     A factor in this is that younger Latinos will be more likely to be college-educated and have views on race relations that are molded in an academic liberal context. I bring this up because there are certain views that among Latinos are almost exclusive to this context (e.g. preference for "latinx" over "latino"), and adhering to them will pretty much objectively make them more left-leaning. I will note that on the flipside you will also have other Latinos who will encounter these practices and aggressively reject them.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Something interesting as well is Hispanic Trump voters are quite young while Harris voters are older .

I wouldn’t say this is surprising as younger voters are less likely in general to vote based on ethnicity as older voters .

Thus you see younger voters regardless of race vote more based on ideology or vibes around that ideology than ethnic solidarity or loyalty. That’s a fantastic development by the way

You have said that one reason why Indians voted Democratic was because a lot of Indians immigrated in the 1990s and loved Bill Clinton. What about Indians who immigrated in the 80s? Did they love Reagan and vote Republican?

There simply weren't as many who had immigrated here in the 1980s. The vast majority of Indians immigrated here after this act was passed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_Act_of_1990

While there were some Indians living here prior to then(mostly those who came as international students and their kids) , the vast majority came post 1990. So it is hard to say and also keep in mind that during the Cold War, the Democrats were known as the more pro India Party while the Republicans were known as the more pro Pakistan Party so not sure how much this played a role in voting patterns then.

[Don't Tread on Me]

The Teller County CVR is pretty easy to parse.

Amendment J (Gay Marriage)
Trump voters: 23.4 Yes, 76.6 No
Harris voters: 88.6 Yes, 11.4 No
Oliver voters: 69.8 Yes, 30.2 No
Stein voters: 87.2 Yes, 12.8 No
West voters: 85.7 Yes, 14.3 No
Kennedy voters: 56.7 Yes, 43.3 No
Terry voters: 21.4 Yes, 78.6 No
Huber voters: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No
Sonski voters: 0.0 Yes, 100.0 No

Amendment 79 (Abortion)
Trump voters: 17.7 Yes, 82.3 No
Harris voters: 91.9 Yes, 8.1 No
Oliver voters: 53.9 Yes, 46.1 No
Stein voters: 80.0 Yes, 20.0 No
West voters: 75.0 Yes, 25.0 No
Kennedy voters: 56.1 Yes, 43.9 No
Terry voters: 20.0 Yes, 80.0 No
Huber voters: 40.0 Yes, 60.0 No
Sonski voters: 0.0 Yes, 100.0 No

Is there a way to get CVR for the ballot initatives in Massachusetts? I'm curious to see the voter breakdown especially on questions 2&3.

[Aurelius2]

El Dorado County, CA (significantly to the right of the state, but less so than Colusa) posted its CVR:

Same-sex marriage (Proposition 3)
Trump: 23.1% Yes, 76.9% No
Harris: 89.5% Yes, 10.5% No
Kennedy: 56.2% Yes, 43.8% No
Oliver: 66.1% Yes, 33.9% No
Stein: 65.1% Yes, 34.9% No
De La Cruz: 86.3% Yes, 13.7% No
Sonski (qualified write-in, n=17): 5.9% Yes, 94.1% No

[Aurelius2]

Here are the results of each state proposition as voted on by each prez candidate's voters within El Dorado County:

Proposition	De La Cruz	Harris	Kennedy	Oliver	Sonski	Stein	Trump
2	78.9	70.0	41.4	30.6	17.6	55.0	28.3
3	86.2	89.5	56.2	66.1	5.9	65.1	23.1
4	80.1	76.7	42.0	34.2	35.3	61.1	18.5
5	69.7	56.1	21.8	14.1	29.4	40.2	7.4
6	80.4	57.7	26.1	28.0	41.2	57.5	11.2
32	79.0	60.4	22.6	18.9	12.5	55.3	9.6
33	72.6	47.3	22.2	15.5	12.5	42.6	9.0
34	42.9	48.3	51.7	45.8	64.7	47.0	52.0
35	79.9	83.7	55.5	48.8	29.4	71.1	44.0
36	26.1	55.1	77.4	78.9	76.5	47.3	89.4