"A majority of Republicans support gay marriage" - what do the Cast Vote Records say?

[Aurelius2]

Update: Trump voters went 35.6% YES in Jefferson County, CO and 23.4% YES in Teller County, CO. Trump voters went 24.0% YES in Colusa County, CA.

Claims like the one in the title come up frequently on here, and on Twitter, and all over the place online. Polls did show this around 2019-2021, though it seems clear now in retrospect that there was some social desirability bias at play - not to mention the fact that support has ticked down substantially since then. It's definitely true that unlike 15-20 years ago this is something that unites the Dems and divides the GOP rather than vice versa, but that being true doesn't come close to meaning the claims of the sort I allude to are true.

I have the Cast Vote Records for Alameda County, CA and Teller County, CO on my laptop. Using these, I can write and run some code and determine what percent of Trump voters also voted yes and no on CA Prop 3 and CO Amendment J in those counties. It's probably going to be at least a day or two till I have time to do this, especially since the Alameda County one is an absolute unwieldy mess.

Before I get to that, all I know is I'm very confident, based on eyeballing the toplines, that it's not anywhere near 50%, sadly. The question is how big the Harris/No vote is, which is impossible to know from county toplines alone, though county toplines from the Hispanic parts of CO do suggest it's quite substantial in at least some places. Thankfully the CVR will allow me to get better numbers.

I hope to get CVRs from at least a few more counties in each of these states, though I'm not sure if other counties do them (I think some in CO do, but Alameda is the only one in CA I'm aware of that does it). I particularly hope to find some from counties with really obvious substantial crossover, for instance Elbert County, CO which voted 74% Trump but only 58% NO on Amendment J. Hopefully this can help put the question to bed. I'm going to pre-register my guesstimates now though, that it's around 15-20% for Prop 3 in CA, and around 25-30% for Amendment J in CO. Clearly something has changed since 2020 when Question 2 in Nevada ran 25-30+ points ahead of the partisan baseline in a number of rural counties (maybe as a bonus I'll be able to find CVRs for that election too).

*note that the open-ended language of Prop 3 led to some scaremongering that it would lead to a constitutional right to polygamy, and Amendment J is technically only a repeal of the state constitution's old ban on SSM rather than an actual enshrinement of SSM into law. Since these are thus both slightly wide of the mark in opposite directions, I feel like it's fair to average the two as an approximate metric of what we're trying to measure.

[RBH]

guessing there's an escape hatch for how Hawaii had a vote to repeal the authority of the legislature to ban Gay Marriage which passed 268k-211k while Harris was winning Hawaii 313k-194k...

[Aurelius2]

guessing there's an escape hatch for how Hawaii had a vote to repeal the authority of the legislature to ban Gay Marriage which passed 268k-211k while Harris was winning Hawaii 313k-194k...

Hawaii is so weird, and the triple-negative language of that ballot measure so confusing especially in a state with a serious literacy problem, that I'm willing to discount that one as not having any useful meaning for the continental US tbh. Even as someone very skeptical of the narrative in question.

CA has always been a bit more anti-gay than you'd expect from its baseline partisan lean, and CO the opposite. Another reason I feel good about throwing data together from the two states.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Honestly my guess is they probably have the position of : “I oppose gay marriage but now that’s its law , we should not reban it”.

So my guess is an ballot measure to reban gay marriage would result in the pro gay marriage side winning by a much larger margin than an ballot measure to enshrine gay marriage in the state constitution.

[Aurelius2]

Honestly my guess is they probably have the position of : “I oppose gay marriage but now that’s its law , we should not reban it”.

So my guess is an ballot measure to reban gay marriage would result in the pro gay marriage side winning by a much larger margin than an ballot measure to enshrine gay marriage in the state constitution.

You're probably right and I'd make a wild guess that 15-25% of Republicans hold that position. But I'd still not call that "supporting" it per se. Frankly I think the 2019-21 polls were in la la land.

Opinion shifted so fast in the 2010s that there's probably a lot of lukewarm feeling in various directions.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

It’s not realistic to think a majority support it at this point but it’s a substantial minority.

[E-Dawg]

What's your estimation on the percentage of Harris voters in California & Colorado who voted no?

[Aurelius2]

What's your estimation on the percentage of Harris voters in California & Colorado who voted no?

I have absolutely no clue tbh. Nothing between 3% and 15% would shock me.

[RI]

The Teller County CVR is pretty easy to parse.

Amendment J (Gay Marriage)
Trump voters: 23.4 Yes, 76.6 No
Harris voters: 88.6 Yes, 11.4 No
Oliver voters: 69.8 Yes, 30.2 No
Stein voters: 87.2 Yes, 12.8 No
West voters: 85.7 Yes, 14.3 No
Kennedy voters: 56.7 Yes, 43.3 No
Terry voters: 21.4 Yes, 78.6 No
Huber voters: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No
Sonski voters: 0.0 Yes, 100.0 No

Amendment 79 (Abortion)
Trump voters: 17.7 Yes, 82.3 No
Harris voters: 91.9 Yes, 8.1 No
Oliver voters: 53.9 Yes, 46.1 No
Stein voters: 80.0 Yes, 20.0 No
West voters: 75.0 Yes, 25.0 No
Kennedy voters: 56.1 Yes, 43.9 No
Terry voters: 20.0 Yes, 80.0 No
Huber voters: 40.0 Yes, 60.0 No
Sonski voters: 0.0 Yes, 100.0 No

[Aurelius2]

The Teller County CVR is pretty easy to parse.

Amendment J (Gay Marriage)
Trump voters: 23.4 Yes, 76.6 No
Harris voters: 88.6 Yes, 11.4 No
Oliver voters: 69.8 Yes, 30.2 No
Stein voters: 87.2 Yes, 12.8 No
West voters: 85.7 Yes, 14.3 No
Kennedy voters: 56.7 Yes, 43.3 No
Terry voters: 21.4 Yes, 78.6 No
Huber voters: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No
Sonski voters: 0.0 Yes, 100.0 No

Amendment 79 (Abortion)
Trump voters: 17.7 Yes, 82.3 No
Harris voters: 91.9 Yes, 8.1 No
Oliver voters: 53.9 Yes, 46.1 No
Stein voters: 80.0 Yes, 20.0 No
West voters: 75.0 Yes, 25.0 No
Kennedy voters: 56.1 Yes, 43.9 No
Terry voters: 20.0 Yes, 80.0 No
Huber voters: 40.0 Yes, 60.0 No
Sonski voters: 0.0 Yes, 100.0 No

Thanks. I should have spent less time writing War and Peace up top and just gotten right to it, clearly.

[Aurelius2]

Jefferson County, CO CVR:

Same-sex marriage (Amendment J)
Harris: 91.4 Yes, 8.6 No
Trump: 35.6 Yes, 64.4 No
Kennedy: 67.7 Yes, 32.3 No
Oliver: 78.0 Yes, 22.0 No
Stein: 83.9 Yes, 16.1 No
West: 78.4 Yes, 21.6 No
Terry: 26.6 Yes, 73.4 No
Huber: 56.1 Yes, 43.9 No

Abortion (Amendment 79)
Harris: 92.3 Yes, 7.7 No
Trump: 25.0 Yes, 75.0 No
Kennedy: 62.0 Yes, 38.0 No
Oliver: 59.3 Yes, 40.7 No
Stein: 85.2 Yes, 14.8 No
West: 74.5 Yes, 25.5 No
Terry: 20.9 Yes, 79.1 No
Huber: 58.8 Yes, 41.2 No

Undervotes excluded.

[TheReckoning]

Why did SSM really underperform abortion rights in CA, compared to Prop 1 in 2022?Are abortion rights really more popular than SSM?

[E-Dawg]

Why did SSM really underperform abortion rights in CA, compared to Prop 1 in 2022?Are abortion rights really more popular than SSM?

The majority of Americans have supported abortion rights for decades, while it took until the early 2010s for gay marriage to get majority support.

[Skill and Chance]

Why did SSM really underperform abortion rights in CA, compared to Prop 1 in 2022?Are abortion rights really more popular than SSM?

The voters that turned out in 2024 but not 2022 are likely more socially conservative in general, particularly in SW states like California.

[Raccoon]

Pro Same sex marriage vote would probably fail most red states but over perform in most swing states. Georgia, excluded.  North Carolina too complicated to hypothetically call.

It would under perform in most hard blue states though.  The gop is becoming very anti gay again

[TheReckoning]

Why did SSM really underperform abortion rights in CA, compared to Prop 1 in 2022?Are abortion rights really more popular than SSM?

The voters that turned out in 2024 but not 2022 are likely more socially conservative in general, particularly in SW states like California.

What makes you think so? And why would this be the case?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why did SSM really underperform abortion rights in CA, compared to Prop 1 in 2022?Are abortion rights really more popular than SSM?

The voters that turned out in 2024 but not 2022 are likely more socially conservative in general, particularly in SW states like California.

What makes you think so? And why would this be the case?

Especially this cycle, it really does seem like there was just a large basket of typically not engaged voters who came out for Trump - less so for Harris. One early sign was in early voting data, 2020 and 2022 non-voters were pretty R-friendly in registration even though a large chunk of this block should be young voters entering the electorate that one would expect to lean Dem.

And ofc Trump voters are more likely to take up the Conservative/right-wing position on these ballot initiatives.

[TheReckoning]

Why did SSM really underperform abortion rights in CA, compared to Prop 1 in 2022?Are abortion rights really more popular than SSM?

The voters that turned out in 2024 but not 2022 are likely more socially conservative in general, particularly in SW states like California.

What makes you think so? And why would this be the case?

Especially this cycle, it really does seem like there was just a large basket of typically not engaged voters who came out for Trump - less so for Harris. One early sign was in early voting data, 2020 and 2022 non-voters were pretty R-friendly in registration even though a large chunk of this block should be young voters entering the electorate that one would expect to lean Dem.

And ofc Trump voters are more likely to take up the Conservative/right-wing position on these ballot initiatives.

Wouldn’t these “Trump only” voters probably not care very much about issues like SSM, though? Historically, social conservatives were a very politically engaged group?

[Chief Justice PiT]

Why did SSM really underperform abortion rights in CA, compared to Prop 1 in 2022?Are abortion rights really more popular than SSM?

The voters that turned out in 2024 but not 2022 are likely more socially conservative in general, particularly in SW states like California.

What makes you think so? And why would this be the case?

Especially this cycle, it really does seem like there was just a large basket of typically not engaged voters who came out for Trump - less so for Harris. One early sign was in early voting data, 2020 and 2022 non-voters were pretty R-friendly in registration even though a large chunk of this block should be young voters entering the electorate that one would expect to lean Dem.

And ofc Trump voters are more likely to take up the Conservative/right-wing position on these ballot initiatives.

Wouldn’t these “Trump only” voters probably not care very much about issues like SSM, though? Historically, social conservatives were a very politically engaged group?

     If they're going to vote on propositions, I could see them adopting a knee-jerk anti-liberal line. They may not care about SSM as an issue, but they are convinced Democrats must be wrong on it.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Why did SSM really underperform abortion rights in CA, compared to Prop 1 in 2022?Are abortion rights really more popular than SSM?

The voters that turned out in 2024 but not 2022 are likely more socially conservative in general, particularly in SW states like California.

What makes you think so? And why would this be the case?

Especially this cycle, it really does seem like there was just a large basket of typically not engaged voters who came out for Trump - less so for Harris. One early sign was in early voting data, 2020 and 2022 non-voters were pretty R-friendly in registration even though a large chunk of this block should be young voters entering the electorate that one would expect to lean Dem.

And ofc Trump voters are more likely to take up the Conservative/right-wing position on these ballot initiatives.

Wouldn’t these “Trump only” voters probably not care very much about issues like SSM, though? Historically, social conservatives were a very politically engaged group?

There's a big difference between ~movement conservatives~ and less-engaged people who hold views that would be considered socially conservative.

[RI]

In the Teller County CVR, of the voters who voted for Trump and undervoted for the House race (543 voters), 39.8% voted for Amendment J (excluding undervotes in the Amendment race).

[Aurelius2]

Sorry guys, you're getting Colusa County, CA today, not Alameda.

Same-sex marriage (Proposition 3)
Trump: 24.0 Yes, 76.0 No
Harris: 74.6 Yes, 25.4 No
Kennedy: 60.2 Yes, 39.8 No
Oliver: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No
Stein: 90.0 Yes, 10.0 No

I've started looking at the Alameda files to figure out how it all fits together. Hopefully tomorrow, if the 4GB of JSON files don't end up crashing my laptop.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sorry guys, you're getting Colusa County, CA today, not Alameda.

Same-sex marriage (Proposition 3)
Trump: 24.0 Yes, 76.0 No
Harris: 74.6 Yes, 25.4 No
Kennedy: 60.2 Yes, 39.8 No
Oliver: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No
Stein: 90.0 Yes, 10.0 No

I've started looking at the Alameda files to figure out how it all fits together. Hopefully tomorrow, if the 4GB of JSON files don't end up crashing my laptop.

I do wonder if looking at how many Harris voters vote know, especially in these heavily non-white communities, is a good benchmark for how many more potential voters Republicans have to peel off if they continue down their current trajectory.

[Aurelius2]

...it looks like these Alameda County CVRs don't actually link the different pages of a ballot to each other. If this turns out to be the case, I'll still try to find something more representative of CA than Colusa County.

[CentristRepublican]

Sorry guys, you're getting Colusa County, CA today, not Alameda.

Same-sex marriage (Proposition 3)
Trump: 24.0 Yes, 76.0 No
Harris: 74.6 Yes, 25.4 No
Kennedy: 60.2 Yes, 39.8 No
Oliver: 50.0 Yes, 50.0 No
Stein: 90.0 Yes, 10.0 No

I've started looking at the Alameda files to figure out how it all fits together. Hopefully tomorrow, if the 4GB of JSON files don't end up crashing my laptop.

Harris voters only being Yes+49 is a bit of a shocker tbh.