This election could have been a landslide….

[GAinDC]

But Republicans blew it and Democrats blocked it

- Seems pretty clear that Biden would have lost by much more, so Dems were smart to switch in Harris, who ran a more energetic campaign that probably prevented a catastrophe.

- Trump’s scandals and baggage also likely cost him some support, as the fundamentals of this cycle should have led to a larger win, even against Harris.

- As a result, Republicans missed out on House gains, where they will maintain a razor thin majority. The senate was a bright spot for them, but they were aided by a favorable map. And they’d have been able to pad their majority even more if they hadn’t totally blown the 2022 races.

- Even if everything goes right for them over the next four years, Trump is term limited. And a party hasn’t held an open seat since 1988, so it will likely be tough for them to win another term with a new candidate.

As disappointed I am with the overall outcome of this election, it could have been much worse for Dems. Trump is still a liability for Republicans, but the environment was bad enough to carry him over the finish line.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is turd-polishing, but it's better than trying to polish a puddle of bloody diarrhea that the alternative with Biden would have been.

[🥥🌴]

Trump is still a liability for Republicans, but the environment was bad enough to carry him over the finish line.

He outperformed republicans downballot. Terrible conclusion (tho i agree with your take that it could've been a landslide and that Dems mitigated some of the damage).

[Randy Marsh]

Trump is still a liability for Republicans, but the environment was bad enough to carry him over the finish line.

He outperformed republicans downballot. Terrible conclusion (tho i agree with your take that it could've been a landslide and that Dems mitigated some of the damage).

Not really. R's won the house popular vote by 3%. The house is just super gerrymandered at this point so it wasn't reflected in the seat numbers

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The House wasn't that bad for the GOP. In 2016 Rs lost 7 seats despite Trump winning. In 2020 Dems lost 13 seats. This year Rs have only lost a net of 1 seat compared to where they were on November 5th (2 if you compare to after 2022).

[GAinDC]

The House wasn't that bad for the GOP. In 2016 Rs lost 7 seats despite Trump winning. In 2020 Dems lost 13 seats. This year Rs have only lost a net of 1 seat compared to where they were on November 5th (2 if you compare to after 2022).

Agree, but in those cycles their majorities were larger to begin with.

[New World Man]

If Harris did better they keep the house. She also drug down Brown. The top of the ticket was an anchor.

[Dave Hedgehog]

If Harris did better they keep the house. She also drug down Brown. The top of the ticket was an anchor.

Unfortunately I think Brown was most likely losing regardless as I don’t think Trump was winning that state by less than 7.5 in any scenario.

Sad but not entirely unexpected that most Ohioans would choose to have a Trump sycophant and yes-man as their new senator. The results speak for themselves and Trump is clearly just a very good fit for that particular state.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

This is why i don't think our strategy was as bad as people say it was this year.

[wbrocks67]

The House wasn't that bad for the GOP. In 2016 Rs lost 7 seats despite Trump winning. In 2020 Dems lost 13 seats. This year Rs have only lost a net of 1 seat compared to where they were on November 5th (2 if you compare to after 2022).

Sure but in a year where the Republican won the PV for the first time since 2004, they should've done better than... losing 2 seats since 2022.

[E-Dawg]

If Trump is weaker than your average Republican, than why did Republican House and Senate candidates underperform him?

[wbrocks67]

I do think there is something to be said about Trump's nonexistent ground game - I think that type of thing probably cost "regular Republicans" like Brown, Rogers, Hovde, etc.

Trump's game was that he could bring out and juice turnout for people to vote for *him* through various means. the lack of a traditional ground game however probably doomed people like those Senate republicans.

[GAinDC]

If Trump is weaker than your average Republican, than why did Republican House and Senate candidates underperform him?

 The whole party is weaker than they should be because they've embraced a 78-year-old felon who tried to steal an election. Just because he managed to win doesn't mean he's the best candidate they could have run

[DS0816]

But Republicans blew it and …

I do not take your argument seriously.

The overall results of Election 2024:
• U.S. President: Republican—Pickup!
• U.S. Senate: Republican—Pickup!
• U.S. House: Republican—Hold!

Additional fact:
Every state experienced a general 2020-to-2024 general shift, in percentage-points margins, in direction for the Republicans (and Donald Trump).

[Asta]

If Trump is weaker than your average Republican, than why did Republican House and Senate candidates underperform him?

Is outperforming your senate really even considered impressive though?

In 2012, Romney outperformed his senate candidates too. Was he an above average candidate given the context?

In 2016, Clinton outperformed her senate candidates. Was she an above average candidate?

In 2016 and 2020 Trump underperformed his senate candidates in the swing states.

Yes, he outperformed his senate candidates this year, but that was with the help of inflation. And even so, it seems like he will underperform the House PV.

[SWE]

But Republicans blew it and …

I do not take your argument seriously.

The overall results of Election 2024:
• U.S. President: Republican—Pickup!
• U.S. Senate: Republican—Pickup!
• U.S. House: Republican—Hold!

Additional fact:
Every state experienced a general 2020-to-2024 general shift, in percentage-points margins, in direction for the Republicans (and Donald Trump).

None of these points contradict or even challenge OP's argument

[Duke of York]

if Biden hadn't run for reelection in the first place Trump probably would have lost.

[Yu748Girl83]

if Biden hadn't run for reelection in the first place Trump probably would have lost.

Well, there are many other circumstances involved in Trump's win.

[#LANK]

If Trump is weaker than your average Republican, than why did Republican House and Senate candidates underperform him?

 The whole party is weaker than they should be because they've embraced a 78-year-old felon who tried to steal an election. Just because he managed to win doesn't mean he's the best candidate they could have run

It's up to if a different R would've caved on the 15-week abortion ban similar to the one Haley supported. Don't underestimate Trump's ability to fundraise relatively independent from the evangelical parachurch megadonors who ofc got behind him when push came to shove and will once again significantly influence his policy

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Trump is weaker than your average Republican, than why did Republican House and Senate candidates underperform him?

Is outperforming your senate really even considered impressive though?

In 2012, Romney outperformed his senate candidates too. Was he an above average candidate given the context?

In 2016, Clinton outperformed her senate candidates. Was she an above average candidate?

In 2016 and 2020 Trump underperformed his senate candidates in the swing states.

Yes, he outperformed his senate candidates this year, but that was with the help of inflation. And even so, it seems like he will underperform the House PV.

It's actually not that hard of an answer. Incumbents still get bumps in senate elections and in Class 1 Senate races the vast majority of incumbents were democrats while in Class 2 and 3 they were republicans.

[Duke of York]

if Biden hadn't run for reelection in the first place Trump probably would have lost.

Well, there are many other circumstances involved in Trump's win.

sexism is definitely one of them. I've given up on the idea of a woman president. It's all but a dream.

[Tekken_Guy]

if Biden hadn't run for reelection in the first place Trump probably would have lost.

Well, there are many other circumstances involved in Trump's win.

sexism is definitely one of them. I've given up on the idea of a woman president. It's all but a dream.

Harris didn’t lose because she was a woman. She and Clinton both had bad luck.

[Samof94]

if Biden hadn't run for reelection in the first place Trump probably would have lost.

Well, there are many other circumstances involved in Trump's win.

sexism is definitely one of them. I've given up on the idea of a woman president. It's all but a dream.

What about a Republican woman who basically is a 21st century American Thatcher?

[Duke of York]

if Biden hadn't run for reelection in the first place Trump probably would have lost.

Well, there are many other circumstances involved in Trump's win.

sexism is definitely one of them. I've given up on the idea of a woman president. It's all but a dream.

What about a Republican woman who basically is a 21st century American Thatcher?

a women is not getting the Republicans nomination anytime soon.

[Samof94]

if Biden hadn't run for reelection in the first place Trump probably would have lost.

Well, there are many other circumstances involved in Trump's win.

sexism is definitely one of them. I've given up on the idea of a woman president. It's all but a dream.

What about a Republican woman who basically is a 21st century American Thatcher?

a women is not getting the Republicans nomination anytime soon.

You never know. Your statement might age like milk. I could picture this more easily than a Democratic one. Of course, a female VP replacing a deceased President is the most likely outcome.