Which senator is more endangered? Ossoff or Collins?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Collins because GA is a runoff state.

[Spectator]

My answer to this question will depend entirely on their opponents. If Mills/Golden run against Collins, then her, even if Kemp runs against Ossoff. If Kemp declines, then Collins by default. Aggregating those together, I’d guess narrowly Collins.

[Don't Tread on Me]

Collins has a bigger chance of losing, but also has a bigger chance of winning by >5 so I voted for her for that reason.

[Don't Tread on Me]

Gary Peters- Am I a joke to you?

I don't think that an incumbent Dem will go down in a state that only voted for Trump by 1 point unless he's caught up in a scandal or Trump turns out to be extremely popular which is unlikely.

[Talleyrand]

Gary Peters- Am I a joke to you?

I don't think that an incumbent Dem will go down in a state that only voted for Trump by 1 point unless he's caught up in a scandal or Trump turns out to be extremely popular which is unlikely.

I agree it's unlikely but never forget that Nelson lost in a a Trump+1 state in 2018.

[President Johnson]

I suppose Ossoff. But ask me again in the summer of 2026. Not sure whether Susie even runs again.

[CentristRepublican]

Collins has a bigger chance of losing, but alos has a bigger chance of winning by >5 so I voted for her for that reason.

Well said. GA could range from Tossup to Tilt D. ME could range anywhere from Lean D to Lean R.

[Don't Tread on Me]

Collins has a bigger chance of losing, but alos has a bigger chance of winning by >5 so I voted for her for that reason.

Well said.

Thanks

[Vosem]

Gary Peters- Am I a joke to you?

I don't think that an incumbent Dem will go down in a state that only voted for Trump by 1 point unless he's caught up in a scandal or Trump turns out to be extremely popular which is unlikely.

I agree it's unlikely but never forget that Nelson lost in a a Trump+1 state in 2018.

FL-2016: Trump+1.19
MI-2024: Trump+1.41
GA-2024: Trump+2.18

(This honestly might say more about how FL was still a swing state in the 2016 cycle than about whether MI or GA are particularly endangered in 2026, but wow).

[Pericles]

It's inherently more risky to rely on crossover appeal, than on voters who already want to vote for your party. Crossover appeal is a fickle thing and candidates do not outrun the baseline by a uniform amount each time. It is really quite easy to run against an incumbent who has been in the Senate for three decades-Collins's incumbency has been so long that a shrewd operator can turn it into a liability.

That said, Collins is very lucky that Republicans don't have another 50-51 seat majority. She is much more able to avoid difficult votes and can get points for defying party leadership without the backlash.

[Don't Tread on Me]

Gary Peters- Am I a joke to you?

I don't think that an incumbent Dem will go down in a state that only voted for Trump by 1 point unless he's caught up in a scandal or Trump turns out to be extremely popular which is unlikely.

I agree it's unlikely but never forget that Nelson lost in a a Trump+1 state in 2018.

Florida deserves its own category.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Ossoff. Golden might pose a formidable challenge to Collins, but I still think she's just too good a fit for that state to be voted out. I think it's more likely that she retires than loses.

Golden would never, and I mean never, run against Collins, so that point is moot.

Do they have a personal relationship or something? That seat seems like his best chance at escaping a district increasingly trending against him.

Yes, he was a staffer for her. But more importantly, that would totally destroy the moderate, nonpartisan image he is going for to try to run against a moderate from the other party who has a very similar voting record to him.

That isn’t the Maine way.

Well she might retire anyways.

I also have my doubts that she retires, but we shall see. She’s also probably going to get a MAGA primary challenge.

If MAGA trash primaries her they will be DOA in a general, lol. Especially against Golden.

If she's in serious danger of losing the primary, my guess is that she'll retire. She's 72 and will have been in office for 30 years, which is a good run.

[Del Tachi]

I doubt Collins retires. As Appropriations Chair, she is more powerful than ever. And if she runs and wins, the Rs will likely control the Senate for at least four more years, allowing her to retain that lofty perch.

Not to mention Senate R leadership (with whom she has always been close) will beg her to run again.

Per GOP conference rules, a senator can only chair a committee for 6 years. Collins will have 4 years under her belt by the beginning of 2027, so she is only forgoing 2 years of a chairmanship if she were to decline reelection.

The GOP appropriations chair up next is Murkowski, who may want the chair by 2027 since she has already exhausted her tenure as chair/RM of the energy committee.

[Del Tachi]

Anyway, I'd say Collins is more threatened. An out-party usually doesn't lose it's incumbent swing state senators in a favorable midterm cycle. Since 1994, it's only happened once (Bill Nelson in 2018).

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The answer is Collins as I said before it's a runoff scenario, if Ossoff doesn't get to 50% or his opponent it's a runoff

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Collins has a bigger chance of losing, but also has a bigger chance of winning by >5 so I voted for her for that reason.

This makes sense.

[Eastern Washington Democrat]

I really like Peters but I'd love if he retired so Whitmer could become a Senator.