Which senator is more endangered? Ossoff or Collins?

[Agafin]

Those are the two races in 2026 where the incumbent senator is in the opposite party to the one that won his state in 2024. So presumably, they have to be prime pick up opportunies. Who's more vulnerable?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Gary Peters- Am I a joke to you?

[These birds not meant to fly alone]

Ossoff. Golden might pose a formidable challenge to Collins, but I still think she's just too good a fit for that state to be voted out. I think it's more likely that she retires than loses.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Ossoff. Golden might pose a formidable challenge to Collins, but I still think she's just too good a fit for that state to be voted out. I think it's more likely that she retires than loses.

Golden would never, and I mean never, run against Collins, so that point is moot.

[UncleSam]

Ossoff. Golden might pose a formidable challenge to Collins, but I still think she's just too good a fit for that state to be voted out. I think it's more likely that she retires than loses.

Golden would never, and I mean never, run against Collins, so that point is moot.

Do they have a personal relationship or something? That seat seems like his best chance at escaping a district increasingly trending against him.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Ossoff. Golden might pose a formidable challenge to Collins, but I still think she's just too good a fit for that state to be voted out. I think it's more likely that she retires than loses.

Golden would never, and I mean never, run against Collins, so that point is moot.

Do they have a personal relationship or something? That seat seems like his best chance at escaping a district increasingly trending against him.

Yes, he was a staffer for her. But more importantly, that would totally destroy the moderate, nonpartisan image he is going for to try to run against a moderate from the other party who has a very similar voting record to him.

That isn’t the Maine way.

[UncleSam]

Ossoff. Golden might pose a formidable challenge to Collins, but I still think she's just too good a fit for that state to be voted out. I think it's more likely that she retires than loses.

Golden would never, and I mean never, run against Collins, so that point is moot.

Do they have a personal relationship or something? That seat seems like his best chance at escaping a district increasingly trending against him.

Yes, he was a staffer for her. But more importantly, that would totally destroy the moderate, nonpartisan image he is going for to try to run against a moderate from the other party who has a very similar voting record to him.

That isn’t the Maine way.

Well she might retire anyways.

[Talleyrand]

I doubt Collins retires. As Appropriations Chair, she is more powerful than ever. And if she runs and wins, the Rs will likely control the Senate for at least four more years, allowing her to retain that lofty perch.

Not to mention Senate R leadership (with whom she has always been close) will beg her to run again.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Ossoff.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We don't have an opposition candidate in either race but Collins is doomed and GA has a runoff scenario

[Spectator]

Collins won’t retire willingly, but that doesn’t preclude Golden from running against her just because he was a low-level staffer for her two decades ago. They might have a personal relationship that dissuades him, but that can and often has been overcome by ambition many times before. He might be risk averse, but all options presents risk: 1. Collins has a proven track record, 2. The gubernatorial primary would be extremely uncertain and he’d probably be an underdog, and 3. His House seat is a ticking time bomb that he can’t hold onto forever. I’d bet option 1 is his path of least resistance, but he might not see it that way. Such a challenge wouldn’t ruin his nonpartisan image—all he’d have to do is make the case she’s been great for Maine but it’s time to pass the torch after 30 years in DC. He can still run on being an independent voice for Maine, just younger. She can make the Appropriations Chair argument all she wants, but the woman won’t live forever.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Ossoff. Golden might pose a formidable challenge to Collins, but I still think she's just too good a fit for that state to be voted out. I think it's more likely that she retires than loses.

Golden would never, and I mean never, run against Collins, so that point is moot.

Do they have a personal relationship or something? That seat seems like his best chance at escaping a district increasingly trending against him.

Yes, he was a staffer for her. But more importantly, that would totally destroy the moderate, nonpartisan image he is going for to try to run against a moderate from the other party who has a very similar voting record to him.

That isn’t the Maine way.

Well she might retire anyways.

I also have my doubts that she retires, but we shall see. She’s also probably going to get a MAGA primary challenge.

[henster]

Ossoff. Golden might pose a formidable challenge to Collins, but I still think she's just too good a fit for that state to be voted out. I think it's more likely that she retires than loses.

Golden would never, and I mean never, run against Collins, so that point is moot.

I wouldn't rule anything out in this environment. I could see Collins not sufficiently pushing back against Trump enough being a trigger for him to run. She indicated she was open to supporting Kash Patel.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In a Trump midterm-obviously Collins.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

The one running in a state that voted over 8 points to the left of the nation over the one running in a state that voted nearly in line with the popular vote, especially given that it's likely to be a Democratic-leaning year.

[Samof94]

In a Trump midterm-obviously Collins.

Yeah, given this is a Trump midterm, not a Harris one, that is the case.
Where does Michigan(the only other Trump state with a D Senator up) fit into this?

[CheapDollarEra?]

Collins will likely either alineate some in the base and/or some moderates in the next 2 years.

What abput Tillis?

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

I have no clue why this poll is as close as it is.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing worth noting is that far out, it seems like Senate incumbents in unfavorable territory are always overrated - many people had MT/OH-Sen as tossups for the longest time this cycle, many thought Gardner could hold on in 2020, many thought Heitkamp/Donnelly/McCaskill would be favored to survive, ect. In hindsight, it seems none of these races were ever that winnable for the losing incumbent.

Of course the one main exception to this rule is Susan Collins herself in 2020, so make of that what you will. It definitely helps her that Maine is a relatively small homogenous state where it's easier to have a local brand, plus RCV reduces the potential consequences of tacking to the center.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In a Trump midterm-obviously Collins.

Yeah, given this is a Trump midterm, not a Harris one, that is the case.
Where does Michigan(the only other Trump state with a D Senator up) fit into this?

Peters will win on Benson coattails alone.

[Crane]

Ossoff. Golden might pose a formidable challenge to Collins, but I still think she's just too good a fit for that state to be voted out. I think it's more likely that she retires than loses.

Golden would never, and I mean never, run against Collins, so that point is moot.

Do they have a personal relationship or something? That seat seems like his best chance at escaping a district increasingly trending against him.

Yes, he was a staffer for her. But more importantly, that would totally destroy the moderate, nonpartisan image he is going for to try to run against a moderate from the other party who has a very similar voting record to him.

That isn’t the Maine way.

Well she might retire anyways.

I also have my doubts that she retires, but we shall see. She’s also probably going to get a MAGA primary challenge.

If MAGA trash primaries her they will be DOA in a general, lol. Especially against Golden.

[MarkD]

You can't be "endangered" when you end up deciding to retire. I still believe that she will change her mind about running for a sixth term.

[Samof94]

You can't be "endangered" when you end up deciding to retire. I still believe that she will change her mind about running for a sixth term.

Who'd be the Maine Republican be if she isn't up for another round in the Senate?

[RJ]

On Dec. 6, 2024 Ossoff is more vulnerable.

Who knows who will be more so in campaign 2026.

[It's Time.]

My hot take is that Dems are more likely to hold NC than GA in 2026. I think Cooper, if he runs would nearly lock up NC and Kemp/Ossoff would be a dogfight as Kemp has insanely high approvals (again, if he runs). Of course, there’s the possibility that either or both of them don’t run, but it’s possible.

I think a lot of people are underestimating Collins again. The polls showing her with insanely low approvals are crap just like 2020. 2020 was the lowest ticket splitting in history, but Collins still outperformed Trump by 20 (15-16 if you adjust for RCV). Of course, 2026 could be a bluer environment than 2020, but will it really be that much bluer than D+3-4?