Pre-election reaction if somebody gave this prediction for California?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 07, 2025, 11:29:43 AM
News: Election Calculator 3.0 with county/house maps is now live. For more info, click here

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  Pre-election reaction if somebody gave this prediction for California?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Pre-election reaction if somebody gave this prediction for California?  (Read 631 times)
E-Dawg
Guy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 836
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 02, 2024, 03:53:30 PM »
« edited: December 03, 2024, 06:23:09 PM by E-Dawg »
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,139
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2024, 03:54:40 PM »
I would correctly assume the EC gap was gone, Trump has won AZ/NV, and TX/FL weren't close.  Wouldn't assume anything about the other swing states, though.
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,266


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2024, 04:03:46 PM »
The biggest warning signs would definitely be Harris struggling in Orange, Riverside, and San Bernadino Counties which all still swung left in 2020 despite their large non-white populations. Would certainly make me think AZ/NV are gone, but also that Harris probably isn't getting the leftshift she needs with college educated whites.
Logged
有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency
khuzifenq
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,884
United States


P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2024, 05:02:37 PM »
Depends on how far out this information was revealed, but I would assume Harris loses the election due to bad D turnout.
Logged
It's Time.
Oregon Eagle Politics
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,371
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2024, 08:19:34 PM »
I was expecting Harris+23 or so, since this is worse I would predict a Trump EC win and tied PV
Logged
Chief Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,964
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2024, 11:05:34 PM »
     Imperial County would be a giveaway that Harris cratered with Latinos. My extrapolations from this information would be similar to Skill and Chance, though I would also give Trump a slight edge in the Rust Belt states given how close they were in 2020 relative to the size of their Latino populations; IRL I erred on predicting a Harris win in MI, but with this information I would flip MI to Trump.
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,641
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2024, 06:04:50 PM »
The actual results seem correct in such a case...maybe even plus New Mexico and New Hampshire for Trump.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 56,312


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2024, 01:05:14 AM »
Losing Imperial would be a serious red flag. We're talking about a Hillary+41.5 county.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.03 seconds with 9 queries.