Why wasn’t ME closer?

[TheReckoning]

Maine was 1 point to the left of the country in 2016, 6 in 2020, and 9 in 2024. What’s the reason behind this big shift since 2016?

[ottermax]

Migration from remote work, Democratic retirees, and just the general trends with college-educated voters shifting Democratic.

[Aurelius2]

Maine is chock full of white boomer retirees. Agedep/racedep did its thing.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump ran an abnormally secular campaign in 2016 compared to every other R campaign this century.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would say that it's for the same reasons as Harris doing better than Clinton in Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington too. White educated voters having a bigger presence.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would say that it's for the same reasons as Harris doing better than Clinton in Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington too. White educated voters having a bigger presence.

Plus most (if not all) of these states seem to be seeing D-friendly in-migration.

[Samof94]

I would say that it's for the same reasons as Harris doing better than Clinton in Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington too. White educated voters having a bigger presence.

Plus most (if not all) of these states seem to be seeing D-friendly in-migration.

Idaho is sucking the R voters out of OR/WA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would say that it's for the same reasons as Harris doing better than Clinton in Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington too. White educated voters having a bigger presence.

Plus most (if not all) of these states seem to be seeing D-friendly in-migration.

Idaho is sucking the R voters out of OR/WA.

I really do wonder if in 10 or 20 years, if all this self-sorting will lead to a good handful of states that vote like D/R+40 relative to the nation or something crazy.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

I would say that it's for the same reasons as Harris doing better than Clinton in Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington too. White educated voters having a bigger presence.

Plus most (if not all) of these states seem to be seeing D-friendly in-migration.

Idaho is sucking the R voters out of OR/WA.

Also CA.

[Samof94]

I would say that it's for the same reasons as Harris doing better than Clinton in Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington too. White educated voters having a bigger presence.

Plus most (if not all) of these states seem to be seeing D-friendly in-migration.

Idaho is sucking the R voters out of OR/WA.

I really do wonder if in 10 or 20 years, if all this self-sorting will lead to a good handful of states that vote like D/R+40 relative to the nation or something crazy.

Like Oklahoma and Massachusetts being even more polar opposites?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would say that it's for the same reasons as Harris doing better than Clinton in Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington too. White educated voters having a bigger presence.

Plus most (if not all) of these states seem to be seeing D-friendly in-migration.

Idaho is sucking the R voters out of OR/WA.

Also CA.

The main reason I'm not fully convinced this is happening on a meaningful scale in CA is because CA if anything has gotten redder - perhaps it's just other rightwards shifts overpowering this dynamic, but even if you look at CA growth patterns - it's not like the deep red parts of the state are seeing disproportionate shrinkage - quite the opposite. I'm pretty sure both Trump and Garvey 2024 got the most votes ever for any Republican in CA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would say that it's for the same reasons as Harris doing better than Clinton in Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington too. White educated voters having a bigger presence.

Plus most (if not all) of these states seem to be seeing D-friendly in-migration.

Idaho is sucking the R voters out of OR/WA.

I really do wonder if in 10 or 20 years, if all this self-sorting will lead to a good handful of states that vote like D/R+40 relative to the nation or something crazy.

Like Oklahoma and Massachusetts being even more polar opposites?

Ye - however in many ways 2024 sort of contradicts this theory as it was many of the bluest states that saw the hardest swings right and the reddest states that had the smallest shifts right.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

I would say that it's for the same reasons as Harris doing better than Clinton in Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington too. White educated voters having a bigger presence.

Plus most (if not all) of these states seem to be seeing D-friendly in-migration.

Idaho is sucking the R voters out of OR/WA.

Also CA.

The main reason I'm not fully convinced this is happening on a meaningful scale in CA is because CA if anything has gotten redder - perhaps it's just other rightwards shifts overpowering this dynamic, but even if you look at CA growth patterns - it's not like the deep red parts of the state are seeing disproportionate shrinkage - quite the opposite. I'm pretty sure both Trump and Garvey 2024 got the most votes ever for any Republican in CA.

Oh. I meant people leaving CA for ID are very probably strongly R, so it makes Idaho more Republican.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would say that it's for the same reasons as Harris doing better than Clinton in Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington too. White educated voters having a bigger presence.

Plus most (if not all) of these states seem to be seeing D-friendly in-migration.

Idaho is sucking the R voters out of OR/WA.

Also CA.

The main reason I'm not fully convinced this is happening on a meaningful scale in CA is because CA if anything has gotten redder - perhaps it's just other rightwards shifts overpowering this dynamic, but even if you look at CA growth patterns - it's not like the deep red parts of the state are seeing disproportionate shrinkage - quite the opposite. I'm pretty sure both Trump and Garvey 2024 got the most votes ever for any Republican in CA.

Oh. I meant people leaving CA for ID are very probably strongly R, so it makes Idaho more Republican.

Yes - that's probably the case.

It's weird because there seem to be certain states that have much stronger identities for being R-self sorts than other states, and I'm not fully sure why. Like in media, you always hear about Conservatives moving to Idaho or Florida to escape liberal hellholes, but less so about people escaping to Wyoming, West Virginia, or Kansas.

I generally believe self-sorting is more subconscious though - I think very few are upending their whole lives to move to another state for political reasons (most people can't), but when they look to move they may gravitate towards states that share their politics while just not considering those that don't (i.e. I would probably never consider moving to FL in the first place in part because of it's politics).

[Dan the Roman]

Maine and New Hampshire have opposite dynamics.

If you looked at the 2024 maps of both states during the 1990s, you would assume that New Hampshire was a double  digit Democratic win and Maine a comfortable if not double digit Republican one.


What happened in Maine is that the rapid expansion of Portland and the transformation of Cumberland County into a mini-version of Boston with a large hipster population and the sort of smaller metropolitan economy Manchester never developed in NH, plus the influx of coastal residents overwhelmed a massive GOP trend among native Mainers and the rest of the state. The best evidence is that in 1994 the first district went Republican while the second went Democratic.

[Aurelius2]

I would say that it's for the same reasons as Harris doing better than Clinton in Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington too. White educated voters having a bigger presence.

Plus most (if not all) of these states seem to be seeing D-friendly in-migration.

Idaho is sucking the R voters out of OR/WA.

Also CA.

The main reason I'm not fully convinced this is happening on a meaningful scale in CA is because CA if anything has gotten redder - perhaps it's just other rightwards shifts overpowering this dynamic, but even if you look at CA growth patterns - it's not like the deep red parts of the state are seeing disproportionate shrinkage - quite the opposite. I'm pretty sure both Trump and Garvey 2024 got the most votes ever for any Republican in CA.

Eh, the deep-red far north of CA is clearly depopulating to an extent that I've long suspected political emigration is one of the main causes. But this area is very thinly populated compared to where most CA Republicans live, and those places aren't seeing the same effect, as you're getting at.

[New World Man]

Boomer retirees like in Door County.

[Crumpets]

I suspect the legacy of Paul LePage has really harmed the image of MAGA in Maine, but hadn't taken root yet in 2016.

[Linda Van der Hampel]

Maine is a very "White" state.

Harris did really well in states with a high percentage of ethnic White American voters, relative to Biden 2020 (even improving in some states).

But this was offset by Harris doing poorly among minority voters across the board (except Black women) and lower turnout among these subgroups.

[#LANK]

Choosing to believe the fishmongers haul too much lobstah for anyone to feel brandonflation

[CentristRepublican]

Some of it, I presume, is because the overall nationwide swing came from a handful of big states - the Big 4, NJ, etc - that swung disproportionately rightward. So most states "trended" a little Democratic purely as a result of that.

The other reason, of course, has to do with ME being racially homogenous. Overwhelmingly white states held up better for Dems bc white voters held up relatively well for Dems - this is also why WI was within a point even under such a brutal national environment.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Some of it, I presume, is because the overall nationwide swing came from a handful of big states - the Big 4, NJ, etc - that swung disproportionately rightward. So most states "trended" a little Democratic purely as a result of that.

The other reason, of course, has to do with ME being racially homogenous. Overwhelmingly white states held up better for Dems bc white voters held up relatively well for Dems - this is also why WI was within a point even under such a brutal national environment.

I thought that too initially, but in New England Trump got pretty decent shifts in both Vermont (4 points), and New Hampshire (4.5) and they are very white states. If you applied those to Maine it should have run around Harris 5ish. Both of those states are also more educated than Maine is too.

[CentristRepublican]

Some of it, I presume, is because the overall nationwide swing came from a handful of big states - the Big 4, NJ, etc - that swung disproportionately rightward. So most states "trended" a little Democratic purely as a result of that.

The other reason, of course, has to do with ME being racially homogenous. Overwhelmingly white states held up better for Dems bc white voters held up relatively well for Dems - this is also why WI was within a point even under such a brutal national environment.

I thought that too initially, but in New England Trump got pretty decent shifts in both Vermont (4 points), and New Hampshire (4.5) and they are very white states. If you applied those to Maine it should have run around Harris 5ish. Both of those states are also more educated than Maine is too.

What if VT is just maxxed out and/or Biden was just the best fit for the state?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Some of it, I presume, is because the overall nationwide swing came from a handful of big states - the Big 4, NJ, etc - that swung disproportionately rightward. So most states "trended" a little Democratic purely as a result of that.

The other reason, of course, has to do with ME being racially homogenous. Overwhelmingly white states held up better for Dems bc white voters held up relatively well for Dems - this is also why WI was within a point even under such a brutal national environment.

I thought that too initially, but in New England Trump got pretty decent shifts in both Vermont (4 points), and New Hampshire (4.5) and they are very white states. If you applied those to Maine it should have run around Harris 5ish. Both of those states are also more educated than Maine is too.

What if VT is just maxxed out and/or Biden was just the best fit for the state?

And NH has swung against the incumbent party in every election since 2000 and swung against the incumbent party in every election since 1988 Except for 1996 so you can make the argument that NH is an anti incumbent state

[Samof94]

I suspect the legacy of Paul LePage has really harmed the image of MAGA in Maine, but hadn't taken root yet in 2016.

He was a racist weirdo
Ds easily won the Governor's mansion in Augusta in 2018.