Remaining South TX blue counties

[Lykaon]

So what’s the deal with Jim Hogg, Brooks, Zavala, and Dimmit staying blue when everything around them stampeded right?

El Paso obviously is a very large city and stayed blue (though it’s margin was halved) and I know Presidio has an artsy/hippy population and is now the second bluest county in the state.

The STX blue counties are one of the biggest mysteries to me when I look at the map. The others would be places like Grand CO staying red as well as Washington state being immune to national trends

[Skill and Chance]

Probably similar to how the strongest Appalachian Dem machines that held out the longest into the Obama/Trump era were in some of the most isolated areas?

[lfromnj]

Three factors
1. None of them are border counties so they wouldn't have had many migrants so that lowered the swing level.
2. IIRC some of them have a history of organized labor like Zavala. Sol should know more about this.
3. This one also mixes with #2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Texas_gubernatorial_election

If we look at the 1972 Texas Gubernatorial 3/4 of the counties Harris won also voted for Raza Unida or a left wing Mexican American party. None of the Trump counties did.

[ottermax]

Three factors
1. None of them are border counties so they wouldn't have had many migrants so that lowered the swing level.
2. IIRC some of them have a history of organized labor like Zavala. Sol should know more about this.
3. This one also mixes with #2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Texas_gubernatorial_election

If we look at the 1972 Texas Gubernatorial 3/4 of the counties Harris won also voted for Raza Unida or a left wing Mexican American party

Thanks for sharing about Raza Unida - I have never learned of this movement, and it was really eye opening for me. I wonder what happened to this level of class conscious Mexican-American organizing.

[lfromnj]

Looking more into Zavala, it isn’t even Tejano, its Mexican American as it seemed to be way more white before the Mexican Revolution

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do think them being more inland helped Harris hold on - the border seems to be a big issue that worked in Trump's favor, and appears to have had a disproportionate impact on the results of border communities.

It is really funny how of all the Counties Harris won in South TX, none are border counties, and just another one of those results that's quite fitting for the cycle.

[RBH]

Looking more into Zavala, it isn’t even Tejano, its Mexican American as it seemed to be way more white before the Mexican Revolution

Zavala was also the best La Raza Unida county in the 1970s so they're not in the same realm as the more southern TX counties where there's a certain amount of Bossism all over their electoral histories

As for Brooks and Jim Hogg, would it make sense to theorize that Ds not running a candidate against Ryan Guillen for the State House meant that there weren't any extra local reasons to tip either of those counties?

But then again, Michelle Vallejo beat De La Cruz in TX15 in Brooks County while Jim Hogg was Cuellar's best county in TX28

[krb08]

Probably similar to how the strongest Appalachian Dem machines that held out the longest into the Obama/Trump era were in some of the most isolated areas?

Probably. It's only a matter of time until they fall as well. Either next presidential election or the one after.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Three factors
1. None of them are border counties so they wouldn't have had many migrants so that lowered the swing level.
2. IIRC some of them have a history of organized labor like Zavala. Sol should know more about this.
3. This one also mixes with #2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Texas_gubernatorial_election

If we look at the 1972 Texas Gubernatorial 3/4 of the counties Harris won also voted for Raza Unida or a left wing Mexican American party

Thanks for sharing about Raza Unida - I have never learned of this movement, and it was really eye opening for me. I wonder what happened to this level of class conscious Mexican-American organizing.

A decent number of Raza Unida movement people became Democrats later on; Raúl Grijalva is probably the best known. Infamously, activist Oscar Zeta Acosta (aka "Dr. Gonzo") disappeared in Sinaloa in 1974 and is long presumed dead.

[Skill and Chance]

Probably similar to how the strongest Appalachian Dem machines that held out the longest into the Obama/Trump era were in some of the most isolated areas?

Probably. It's only a matter of time until they fall as well. Either next presidential election or the one after.

I wonder if this area will keep going right like the ancestral Dem parts of rural East and West Texas did and end up being near-unanimous R in the 2040's?

[Adam Griffin]

Probably similar to how the strongest Appalachian Dem machines that held out the longest into the Obama/Trump era were in some of the most isolated areas?

Yep: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=232422.msg4980309#msg4980309