Trump flipped Imperial County

[riverwalk7]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1863381182412468607

Based on the amount of ballots added last update and the amount unprocessed as of last update, there are less than 200 votes left in Imperial.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This might be the most stunning flip of the election, even in the context of Trump's Hispanic gains.

[Crane]

KFC gets another chicken county.

[Wormless Gourd]

86% Hispanic, last won by a Republican for president in 1988(when it was much whiter)

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1863379010123628737
Imperial County FLIPS

Wow, the Wikipedia table of Presidential election results for that county has already been updated.

Harris lost 9k votes from Biden 2020, Trump gained 5.3k votes from 2020. So maybe 50% net persuasion and 50% a dropoff in turnout.

[RBH]

Imperial County is in the Yuma TV market, which always leads to slightly unique results. Considering how detailed CA statement votes are, someone can dig into that soon enough to compare the results from year to year.

[Roll Roons]

Military takeover of this state, now.

Taking a month to count votes is completely unacceptable and should not be tolerated, regardless of what happens with late votes.

If California can’t do something so basic, they don’t deserve the right to govern themselves.

[Aurelius2]

Military takeover of this state, now.

Taking a month to count votes is completely unacceptable and should not be tolerated, regardless of who the process may favor.

If California can’t do something so basic, they don’t deserve the right to govern themselves.

You're not wrong in this specific case, but California is the literal culmination of hundreds of years of what Americans dreamed of and fought for, and perhaps more importantly generates much of the wealth - both via taxes and via the direct effect of its dynamism on the American economy - you humidity dwellers skate by on.

[CookieDamage]

I'm not too surprised this happened. It shifted hard right in 2020. Passaic is still more shocking.

[Aurelius2]

This might be the most stunning flip of the election, even in the context of Trump's Hispanic gains.

Certainly up there with Passaic and Webb at very least.

I'm not going to like any GOP that wins Imperial while losing Orange (or Nevada County for that matter). Hopefully this is just a blip and the GOP returns to core values of liberty once Trump goes. But the country has been running headlong from Anglo-Protestant values for the past decade so this is sadly unlikely.

I did some analysis a week or two ago of various CA ballot measures over the past decade and Imperial, along with certain parts of Fresno, Merced, and Los Angeles counties is consistently the most authoritarian part of California. I carefully constructed this analysis in a way it wouldn't just flag all the most D or all the most R localities in the state, and rather looked at the liberty vs authority axis orthogonal to partisan politics to the maximum extent possible. I plan to include a couple of 2024 ballot measures in this, and I may post it on here once the state certifies and we get the Supplemental SOVC for this year's election.

Probably no one cares about this but me, but with this flip there are now no counties that voted for Harris and against Prop 3. I am rooting for Lake County to also flip to Trump to increase the number of counties that went Trump/Yes (currently 8 I think).

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

I'm not too surprised this happened. It shifted hard right in 2020. Passaic is still more shocking.

I was worried a bit about margins in Passaic after 2021-GOV, but the outright flip is nightmare stuff. I have more personal investment in Atlantic County flipping, even though that was far more likely to happen even in a scenario where Harris wins by a decent margin.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

This is embarrassing even considering the rest of Flopmala's performance.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Military takeover of this state, now.

Taking a month to count votes is completely unacceptable and should not be tolerated, regardless of what happens with late votes.

If California can’t do something so basic, they don’t deserve the right to govern themselves.

Especially given how small many of these counties are - Imperial and Lake are some of the worst offenders.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In a similar vein do we know if Trump carried CA-25? It was Biden + 15 in 2020 and Imperial County swung like 25% right, but my guess is that the Riverside County portion had a much less aggressive swing than imperial County. My guess would be Harris still narrowly carried the district but wouldn't be shocked if Trump flipped it.

Ruiz won re-election by double-digits, so regardless of who won the district, he's proven to be quite a strong overperformer.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

In a similar vein do we know if Trump carried CA-25? It was Biden + 15 in 2020, but my guess is that the Riverside County portion had a much less aggressive swing than imperial County. My guess would be Harris still narrowly carried the district but wouldn't be shocked if Trump flipped it.

Ruiz won re-election by double-digits, so regardless of who won the district, he's proven to be quite a strong overperformer.

Makes you wonder what's going to happen once the incumbent overperformers in these formerly Safe D districts retire. Raul Ruiz, Mark Takano, Norma Torres, etc. And also Raul Grijalva, Sylvia Garcia, Henry Cuellar, Vicente Gonzalez, and Grace Meng.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In a similar vein do we know if Trump carried CA-25? It was Biden + 15 in 2020, but my guess is that the Riverside County portion had a much less aggressive swing than imperial County. My guess would be Harris still narrowly carried the district but wouldn't be shocked if Trump flipped it.

Ruiz won re-election by double-digits, so regardless of who won the district, he's proven to be quite a strong overperformer.

Makes you wonder what's going to happen once the incumbent overperformers in these formerly Safe D districts retire. Raul Ruiz, Mark Takano, Norma Torres, etc. And also Raul Grijalva, Sylvia Garcia, Henry Cuellar, Vicente Gonzalez, and Grace Meng.

The big open question is if Republicans can sustain (or improve) on these margins in cycles without Trump on the ballot. The prop 3 results suggest in a place like Imperial County, there were still some socially Conservative Hispanics who voted for Harris - perhaps these are voters who Republicans can peel off in future elections.

Also worth noting these past 2 decades Hispanics have some interesting fluctuations - they had pretty clear trend right in 2004, trend left in 2008, 2012, and 2016, and then right in 2020 and 2024. Post-2016 the consensus was that places like Miami-Dade might just keep getting bluer and eventually vote 70% Dem and we all know how that went lmao.

Also I really doubt we see Grijalva's AZ-07 become competitive anytime soon even with further R gains of Hispanics- the district takes in a decent number of liberal whites in Tucson, though I could definitely see redistricting that makes the seat more vulnerable as the current configuration is kind of a D pack.

[lfromnj]

I wonder how Calexico proper voted .

[Vosem]

Even more fascinatingly, Imperial County seems to have voted for Adam Schiff for the full 6-year Senate term, but Steve Garvey for the partial Senate term which'll end this January.

[RBH]

Even more fascinatingly, Imperial County seems to have voted for Adam Schiff for the full 6-year Senate term, but Steve Garvey for the partial Senate term which'll end this January.

now that's the vote-split map we need

[Don't Tread on Me]

Shocking but why are we still counting votes in December? Is the UPS that clogged?

[E-Dawg]

Is the county 100% in?

[Agafin]

Is the county 100% in?

Yes, finally.

[ottermax]

In a similar vein do we know if Trump carried CA-25? It was Biden + 15 in 2020, but my guess is that the Riverside County portion had a much less aggressive swing than imperial County. My guess would be Harris still narrowly carried the district but wouldn't be shocked if Trump flipped it.

Ruiz won re-election by double-digits, so regardless of who won the district, he's proven to be quite a strong overperformer.

Makes you wonder what's going to happen once the incumbent overperformers in these formerly Safe D districts retire. Raul Ruiz, Mark Takano, Norma Torres, etc. And also Raul Grijalva, Sylvia Garcia, Henry Cuellar, Vicente Gonzalez, and Grace Meng.

The big open question is if Republicans can sustain (or improve) on these margins in cycles without Trump on the ballot. The prop 3 results suggest in a place like Imperial County, there were still some socially Conservative Hispanics who voted for Harris - perhaps these are voters who Republicans can peel off in future elections.

Also worth noting these past 2 decades Hispanics have some interesting fluctuations - they had pretty clear trend right in 2004, trend left in 2008, 2012, and 2016, and then right in 2020 and 2024. Post-2016 the consensus was that places like Miami-Dade might just keep getting bluer and eventually vote 70% Dem and we all know how that went lmao.

Also I really doubt we see Grijalva's AZ-07 become competitive anytime soon even with further R gains of Hispanics- the district takes in a decent number of liberal whites in Tucson, though I could definitely see redistricting that makes the seat more vulnerable as the current configuration is kind of a D pack.

Any safe D district that has had a big Latino rightward shift is going to be very tricky for Republicans to win. The RGV districts are the easiest because when turnout drops there's still a fairly solid Republican base of voters, especially from rural White portions of these districts. In CA and other locations you almost always have a decent base of liberal White voters combined with a more loyal partisan Democratic Hispanic voter base that will combine to keep the seat Democratic. The other place where Democrats struggle is the Central Valley because there is almost no Democratic base outside Latinos who are very low propensity voters.

[CentristRepublican]

Raul Ruiz, the Democratic congressman from the area, still won the county by a respectable 13 points and won more than 3k votes more than either Trump or Harris.

We need less Newsoms and more Ruiz's in statewide politics.

[CentristRepublican]

Even more fascinatingly, Imperial County seems to have voted for Adam Schiff for the full 6-year Senate term, but Steve Garvey for the partial Senate term which'll end this January.

Love that. So wonky that it almost makes up for it voting Trump.

As of right now, it seems the two county maps on Wiki are literally completely identical, which is always a bit of a bore. Imperial splitting would be a sight to behold.