One Underdiscussed fact about the results is that Young Women moved significantly towards Trump

[Skill and Chance]

Reposting from the Walz thread as I think there was a cultural misunderstanding about how to appeal the ~40-45% of American women who remain right-leaning:

I think an underrated issue with Walz is that he gave off “too weak/goofy to adequately protect you” vibes to many Southern and Southwestern (especially Latina) women.  Part of this is a cultural divide.  Minnesota Nice probably doesn’t play as well in those areas.  This undercut Harris’ goal of ramping up the gender gap beyond 2016 levels.

In short, Harris correctly projected a "tough" image at the top of the ticket, but undercut it with her VP and general staffing/surrogate picks. 

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Reposting from the Walz thread as I think there was a cultural misunderstanding about how to appeal the ~40-45% of American women who remain right-leaning:

I think an underrated issue with Walz is that he gave off “too weak/goofy to adequately protect you” vibes to many Southern and Southwestern (especially Latina) women.  Part of this is a cultural divide.  Minnesota Nice probably doesn’t play as well in those areas.  This undercut Harris’ goal of ramping up the gender gap beyond 2016 levels.

In short, Harris correctly projected a "tough" image at the top of the ticket, but undercut it with her VP and general staffing/surrogate picks.  

I'm seeing countervailing anecdotal evidence for Southwest Mexican Americans on perceptions of Walz. But I think this Chicano Substacker agrees that the Harris-Walz campaign probably didn't use Walz to his full potential.
https://gustavoarellano.substack.com/p/on-rancho-libertarianism

Rancho libertarians could give a [fhtagn] about whiteness — [S019], they HATE whiteness. The rancho libertarians view white Americans — gabachos, they call them instead of gringos — as whiny, entitled, drug-addicted ingrates who waste the advantage of their whiteness in the U.S.. That’s why JD Vance will never gain traction among rancho libertarians — he might’ve come from hillbilly stock like rancho libertarians, but now he’s a dilettante who sees himself above his Appalachia roots, a sin no rancho libertarian would ever dare commit. That’s what liberals and conservatives will never get.

The rancho libertarian has nothing against a Black woman running for president — hell, they just supported a Jewish woman to become president of Mexico (really, the Morena Party in Mexico is the Rancho Libertarian Party, except more to the left), and they came out for Obama back in the day. The addition of a big, older-looking gabacho in vice presidential nominee Tim Walz was a positive because Walz is not ashamed of his rural background and has the nice-guy quality of the gabacho coworker who befriended the rancho libertarian when they were new to the country.

But woe if the Dem ticket starts harping on issues like abortion access and Ukraine more than bettering the economy, which is what the rancho libertarian cares about above all in this election.

[Duke of York]

they will regret it when they can't get reproductive care, healthcare, afford rent or a home or food.

Not being able to afford rents, home, or food is something they feel now, thanks to Biden's inflationary policies.

What many young women also feel is unsafe.  The increase in crime in urban and suburban areas is real, and it is felt, not just by what people may see on, say, Fox News, but on what they experience in real life. 

It's the younger people that actually see Tren De Aragua gangsters taking over apartment complexes in places like Aurora, CO; complexes that were relatively safe prior to Joe Biden totally stopping the enforcement of immigration law.  Or the number of violent criminals who are emboldened in a number of Blue States because of the ending of requiring cash bail be posted when people are arrested for felonies; this means less incapacitation and more criminals actively engaging in crime on the streets. 

Donald Trump's popularity is enduring because his emphasis has always been on keeping people safe, and acknowledging that people's fears for their safety are not made up or exaggerated.  Trump has always placed the safety of the average citizen at the top of his priority list when formulating policy, and young women have come to appreciate this somewhat as they find themselves with real reasons to feel less safe.  Young women don't want to be in the shoes of Laken Riley or Rachel Morin, and the more they are told by Legacy Media that these are "isolated incidents", or how there is no such thing as "migrant crime", the more they believe that no one cares about THEIR safety. 

Perhaps people ought to think about the plight of young women who are NOT living in a safe home with their parents, but on their own, in an apartment, perhaps with roommates (with or without a significant other).  How safe is their environment if they are living in a city or large suburb living in an apartment complex?  Think about it.  People who are scared will choose the person who addresses their fears over the person that gaslights them as a rational choice. 

Inflation was caused by lockdowns. Not anything Biden did. Everything else you said is a lie.

The ARP made inflation worse

so we should have done nothing a let the economy crash through something of our own making? Lockdowns should have never been done and there would have been no inflation.

[Chief Justice PiT]

Reposting from the Walz thread as I think there was a cultural misunderstanding about how to appeal the ~40-45% of American women who remain right-leaning:

I think an underrated issue with Walz is that he gave off “too weak/goofy to adequately protect you” vibes to many Southern and Southwestern (especially Latina) women.  Part of this is a cultural divide.  Minnesota Nice probably doesn’t play as well in those areas.  This undercut Harris’ goal of ramping up the gender gap beyond 2016 levels.

In short, Harris correctly projected a "tough" image at the top of the ticket, but undercut it with her VP and general staffing/surrogate picks.  

I'm seeing countervailing anecdotal evidence for Southwest Mexican Americans on perceptions of Walz. But I think this Chicano Substacker agrees that the Harris-Walz campaign probably didn't use Walz to his full potential.
https://gustavoarellano.substack.com/p/on-rancho-libertarianism

Rancho libertarians could give a [fhtagn] about whiteness — [S019], they HATE whiteness. The rancho libertarians view white Americans — gabachos, they call them instead of gringos — as whiny, entitled, drug-addicted ingrates who waste the advantage of their whiteness in the U.S.. That’s why JD Vance will never gain traction among rancho libertarians — he might’ve come from hillbilly stock like rancho libertarians, but now he’s a dilettante who sees himself above his Appalachia roots, a sin no rancho libertarian would ever dare commit. That’s what liberals and conservatives will never get.

The rancho libertarian has nothing against a Black woman running for president — hell, they just supported a Jewish woman to become president of Mexico (really, the Morena Party in Mexico is the Rancho Libertarian Party, except more to the left), and they came out for Obama back in the day. The addition of a big, older-looking gabacho in vice presidential nominee Tim Walz was a positive because Walz is not ashamed of his rural background and has the nice-guy quality of the gabacho coworker who befriended the rancho libertarian when they were new to the country.

But woe if the Dem ticket starts harping on issues like abortion access and Ukraine more than bettering the economy, which is what the rancho libertarian cares about above all in this election.

     I would note that the piece you link talks more about men than women. It seems counterintuitive, but perhaps Walz plays better with Latinos than with Latinas. Adding yet another piece of anecdotal evidence to the pile, I know my wife characterized him as "dumb and weak" when I showed him to her.

[Skill and Chance]

Reposting from the Walz thread as I think there was a cultural misunderstanding about how to appeal the ~40-45% of American women who remain right-leaning:

I think an underrated issue with Walz is that he gave off “too weak/goofy to adequately protect you” vibes to many Southern and Southwestern (especially Latina) women.  Part of this is a cultural divide.  Minnesota Nice probably doesn’t play as well in those areas.  This undercut Harris’ goal of ramping up the gender gap beyond 2016 levels.

In short, Harris correctly projected a "tough" image at the top of the ticket, but undercut it with her VP and general staffing/surrogate picks.  

I'm seeing countervailing anecdotal evidence for Southwest Mexican Americans on perceptions of Walz. But I think this Chicano Substacker agrees that the Harris-Walz campaign probably didn't use Walz to his full potential.
https://gustavoarellano.substack.com/p/on-rancho-libertarianism

Rancho libertarians could give a [fhtagn] about whiteness — [S019], they HATE whiteness. The rancho libertarians view white Americans — gabachos, they call them instead of gringos — as whiny, entitled, drug-addicted ingrates who waste the advantage of their whiteness in the U.S.. That’s why JD Vance will never gain traction among rancho libertarians — he might’ve come from hillbilly stock like rancho libertarians, but now he’s a dilettante who sees himself above his Appalachia roots, a sin no rancho libertarian would ever dare commit. That’s what liberals and conservatives will never get.

The rancho libertarian has nothing against a Black woman running for president — hell, they just supported a Jewish woman to become president of Mexico (really, the Morena Party in Mexico is the Rancho Libertarian Party, except more to the left), and they came out for Obama back in the day. The addition of a big, older-looking gabacho in vice presidential nominee Tim Walz was a positive because Walz is not ashamed of his rural background and has the nice-guy quality of the gabacho coworker who befriended the rancho libertarian when they were new to the country.

But woe if the Dem ticket starts harping on issues like abortion access and Ukraine more than bettering the economy, which is what the rancho libertarian cares about above all in this election.

     I would note that the piece you link talks more about men than women. It seems counterintuitive, but perhaps Walz plays better with Latinos than with Latinas. Adding yet another piece of anecdotal evidence to the pile, I know my wife characterized him as "dumb and weak" when I showed him to her.

Again, if you're a woman who grew up in the less sociologically WEIRD parts of this country with stories of your grandparents/great-grandparents fighting duels, etc., then Minnesota Nice probably doesn't do it for you. 

[EpicHistory]

I think a lot of this is ideological polarization vs anything else .

- Much of this swing was seen more among young non white females than young white females which shows that among younger voters race isn’t playing as big of a role in politics  as in older generations.

- Republican messaging and vibes to younger people from 2005-2015 was just godawful and they have slowely improved since then . That was huge in convincing many conservative minded young voters to vote republican while before they voted Democratic  cause the republicans had the perception of “party of old people”

Polarization and adult political thought is intimately correlated with your environment growing up:



If you're wondering why the GOP struggled so much in the 2005-2015 period with young voters, it's because Liberal women were having more kids than Conservative women until the early 1990s when fertility differentials switched in favor of Conservatives. Noticeably, this overlaps almost perfectly with when Millennials were being born and then their coming of age period in 2005-2015. The switch, which has growing more stark in recent years, also explains a lot of the shift in Gen Z voters.