One Underdiscussed fact about the results is that Young Women moved significantly towards Trump

[OSR stands with Israel]

Since the election we have heard a lot about how young men moved significantly towards Trump and people giving their theory why(some blaming the manosphere and others blaming Democratic messaging on male issues) but there has been very little talk about the fact that Young Women also moved significantly to the right.

According to AP Vote cast's exits, young women moved 14 points to the right since 2020



Source: https://substack.com/home/post/p-151307492

According to Edision's data, young women moved 12 points to the right since 2020






Sources: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results/21

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/21

[EpicHistory]

Fertility differentials between Conservatives and Liberals really starting to come into focus. It'll be obvious by the 2030s, but trends like these are the first signs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fertility differentials between Conservatives and Liberals really starting to come into focus. It'll be obvious by the 2030s, but trends like these are the first signs.

Yeah this is definitely something liberals will want to think about, and the tricky thing is even if things change such that the partisan bias of those having children evens out or reverses, there's like a 20 year lag so I think planning for the fact that Gen-Alpha may less Dem-friendly if not outright R-leaning is important. I think we'll also have to see where social media goes - currently the right has a stranglehold on a lot of much of social media that attracts young people, but perhaps that changes in 10 years - it wasn't that long ago when social media was seen as a net benefit for liberals/Democrats. Also, fortunately for Democrats, it's currently the Conservative Baby Boomer generation who's dying out, so perhaps that balances it out.

And then there's a larger conversation to be had about why there's such a big fertility gap between Conservatives and Liberals right now? How much is it that Republicans are more likely to have children vs people with children being more likely to Lean R.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Fertility differentials between Conservatives and Liberals really starting to come into focus. It'll be obvious by the 2030s, but trends like these are the first signs.

I think a lot of this is ideological polarization vs anything else .

- Much of this swing was seen more among young non white females than young white females which shows that among younger voters race isn’t playing as big of a role in politics  as in older generations.

- Republican messaging and vibes to younger people from 2005-2015 was just godawful and they have slowely improved since then . That was huge in convincing many conservative minded young voters to vote republican while before they voted Democratic  cause the republicans had the perception of “party of old people”
 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

But MUH DEMOGRAPHICS ARE INEVITABLE

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fertility differentials between Conservatives and Liberals really starting to come into focus. It'll be obvious by the 2030s, but trends like these are the first signs.

I think a lot of this is ideological polarization vs anything else .

- Much of this swing was seen more among young non white females than young white females which shows that among younger voters race isn’t playing as big of a role in politics  as in older generations.

- Republican messaging and vibes to younger people from 2005-2015 was just godawful and they have slowely improved since then . That was huge in convincing many conservative minded young voters to vote republican while before they voted Democratic  cause the republicans had the perception of “party of old people”
 

Yeah it's for simillar reasons to why young men shifted right, but just less intense. For all the talk about the "manosphere" there is also a decent amount of right-wing content targeted towards young women too, but I think it's a bit less effective because young women tend to have more robust real life social circles.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's only underdiscussed because it falls into the umbrella discussion of "Trump improved with everyone, everywhere (all at once)."

And that makes this election not a lot of fun to discuss, even taking my bias out of it. America just plain tolerates Trump, it sucks, but we have to try and move on.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's only underdiscussed because it falls into the umbrella discussion of "Trump improved with everyone, everywhere (all at once)."

And that makes this election not a lot of fun to discuss, even taking my bias out of it. America just plain tolerates Trump, it sucks, but we have to try and move on.

Except voters who are 65 years or older basically

[Crane]

There's only so long you can brag about demographic improvements in this election while ignoring the fact that the idiot you voted for is currently lighting the American presidency on fire.

Sure, young women, Latino dudes, Asian dudes shifted Trump. Did they make a good decision? All signs point to no.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's only underdiscussed because it falls into the umbrella discussion of "Trump improved with everyone, everywhere (all at once)."

And that makes this election not a lot of fun to discuss, even taking my bias out of it. America just plain tolerates Trump, it sucks, but we have to try and move on.

Except voters who are 65 years or older basically

Harris improved with college educated elderly rich white men.

[Aurelius2]

The gender gap still grew as young men swung further rightward than young women, but this is far better than if young women had swung hard left alongside the hard right swing of young men. That would be a sign of incipient Koreafication of America.

[RBH]

so if you have a group of 100,000 women in both samples, going from 32% of 17% to 38% of 12% means Trump went from 5440 women in 2020 to 4560 women in 2024 while the Dem side went from 11390 women in 2020 to 7320 women in 2024

so even with some of the 2020 group going from 18-29 to 30-45, that's still a big drop in the number of the electorate that's 18-29

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Fertility differentials between Conservatives and Liberals really starting to come into focus. It'll be obvious by the 2030s, but trends like these are the first signs.

Yes, this is why I expect Millenials to end up being the most left-wing demographic of whites for a long time. White fertility is below replacement but white conservatives are close to replacement while white progressives are well below. And political ideology is fairly heritable.

[wbrocks67]

Fertility differentials between Conservatives and Liberals really starting to come into focus. It'll be obvious by the 2030s, but trends like these are the first signs.

Yes, this is why I expect Millenials to end up being the most left-wing demographic of whites for a long time. White fertility is below replacement but white conservatives are close to replacement while white progressives are well below. And political ideology is fairly heritable.

Millennials will be the most left-wing likely because we were the prime group to grow up with Bush/Obama/Trump and that shaped a lot of how we see politics imo. The younger generation barely knows Obama and didn't see a lot of the early Trump stuff.

[Duke of York]

they will regret it when they can't get reproductive care, healthcare, afford rent or a home or food.

[wbrocks67]

I also don't think this is surprising too much? We saw a general Gen Z shift but also nearly every demographic moved rightward just because of the national environment too, so almost no demographic group is going to be immune to that. Jury is still out too on the white college+ voters as well, given the precinct/county results are kind of muddy.

[TheReckoning]

Exit polls are unreliable.

[wbrocks67]

Exit polls are unreliable.

it's a shame that the Catalist/Pew stuff takes so long to do given by the time they come out, the 'narrative' (TM) for every group will already be solidified

[Meclazine for Israel]

Biden did say in the first debate that Trump attended funerals after immigrants were raping and murdering women (in response to why we need abortion?)

I really don't think he knew what he was saying.

Probably not his finest moment.

[darklordoftech]

there is also a decent amount of right-wing content targeted towards young women

What does it say?

[ProgressiveModerate]

there is also a decent amount of right-wing content targeted towards young women

What does it say?

One example is tradwife adjacent content that basically says "women were better off before feminism, they didn't have to work and could just care for beautiful children". To a young woman who's lost, perhaps struggling financially, this could be quite appealing as just caring for kids in a home sounds so nice and simple by comparison.

Another thing I think Conservatives have been effective at is painting a certain archetype of a liberal woman that is quite negative (the blue haired liberal) and a lot of younger women may just not want to be assocated with that.

There's also just a lot of gender-neutral stuff around conspiracy theories and promoting low social trust.

[Fuzzy Bear Stands With S019 And Israel]

they will regret it when they can't get reproductive care, healthcare, afford rent or a home or food.

Not being able to afford rents, home, or food is something they feel now, thanks to Biden's inflationary policies.

What many young women also feel is unsafe.  The increase in crime in urban and suburban areas is real, and it is felt, not just by what people may see on, say, Fox News, but on what they experience in real life. 

It's the younger people that actually see Tren De Aragua gangsters taking over apartment complexes in places like Aurora, CO; complexes that were relatively safe prior to Joe Biden totally stopping the enforcement of immigration law.  Or the number of violent criminals who are emboldened in a number of Blue States because of the ending of requiring cash bail be posted when people are arrested for felonies; this means less incapacitation and more criminals actively engaging in crime on the streets. 

Donald Trump's popularity is enduring because his emphasis has always been on keeping people safe, and acknowledging that people's fears for their safety are not made up or exaggerated.  Trump has always placed the safety of the average citizen at the top of his priority list when formulating policy, and young women have come to appreciate this somewhat as they find themselves with real reasons to feel less safe.  Young women don't want to be in the shoes of Laken Riley or Rachel Morin, and the more they are told by Legacy Media that these are "isolated incidents", or how there is no such thing as "migrant crime", the more they believe that no one cares about THEIR safety. 

Perhaps people ought to think about the plight of young women who are NOT living in a safe home with their parents, but on their own, in an apartment, perhaps with roommates (with or without a significant other).  How safe is their environment if they are living in a city or large suburb living in an apartment complex?  Think about it.  People who are scared will choose the person who addresses their fears over the person that gaslights them as a rational choice. 

[Duke of York]

they will regret it when they can't get reproductive care, healthcare, afford rent or a home or food.

Not being able to afford rents, home, or food is something they feel now, thanks to Biden's inflationary policies.

What many young women also feel is unsafe.  The increase in crime in urban and suburban areas is real, and it is felt, not just by what people may see on, say, Fox News, but on what they experience in real life. 

It's the younger people that actually see Tren De Aragua gangsters taking over apartment complexes in places like Aurora, CO; complexes that were relatively safe prior to Joe Biden totally stopping the enforcement of immigration law.  Or the number of violent criminals who are emboldened in a number of Blue States because of the ending of requiring cash bail be posted when people are arrested for felonies; this means less incapacitation and more criminals actively engaging in crime on the streets. 

Donald Trump's popularity is enduring because his emphasis has always been on keeping people safe, and acknowledging that people's fears for their safety are not made up or exaggerated.  Trump has always placed the safety of the average citizen at the top of his priority list when formulating policy, and young women have come to appreciate this somewhat as they find themselves with real reasons to feel less safe.  Young women don't want to be in the shoes of Laken Riley or Rachel Morin, and the more they are told by Legacy Media that these are "isolated incidents", or how there is no such thing as "migrant crime", the more they believe that no one cares about THEIR safety. 

Perhaps people ought to think about the plight of young women who are NOT living in a safe home with their parents, but on their own, in an apartment, perhaps with roommates (with or without a significant other).  How safe is their environment if they are living in a city or large suburb living in an apartment complex?  Think about it.  People who are scared will choose the person who addresses their fears over the person that gaslights them as a rational choice. 

Inflation was caused by lockdowns. Not anything Biden did. Everything else you said is a lie.

[QuietlyCalm]

Fertility differentials between Conservatives and Liberals really starting to come into focus. It'll be obvious by the 2030s, but trends like these are the first signs.

Yes, this is why I expect Millenials to end up being the most left-wing demographic of whites for a long time. White fertility is below replacement but white conservatives are close to replacement while white progressives are well below. And political ideology is fairly heritable.

It really isn't and anyone who thinks so should quite frankly be sterilized.

[OSR stands with Israel]

they will regret it when they can't get reproductive care, healthcare, afford rent or a home or food.

Not being able to afford rents, home, or food is something they feel now, thanks to Biden's inflationary policies.

What many young women also feel is unsafe.  The increase in crime in urban and suburban areas is real, and it is felt, not just by what people may see on, say, Fox News, but on what they experience in real life. 

It's the younger people that actually see Tren De Aragua gangsters taking over apartment complexes in places like Aurora, CO; complexes that were relatively safe prior to Joe Biden totally stopping the enforcement of immigration law.  Or the number of violent criminals who are emboldened in a number of Blue States because of the ending of requiring cash bail be posted when people are arrested for felonies; this means less incapacitation and more criminals actively engaging in crime on the streets. 

Donald Trump's popularity is enduring because his emphasis has always been on keeping people safe, and acknowledging that people's fears for their safety are not made up or exaggerated.  Trump has always placed the safety of the average citizen at the top of his priority list when formulating policy, and young women have come to appreciate this somewhat as they find themselves with real reasons to feel less safe.  Young women don't want to be in the shoes of Laken Riley or Rachel Morin, and the more they are told by Legacy Media that these are "isolated incidents", or how there is no such thing as "migrant crime", the more they believe that no one cares about THEIR safety. 

Perhaps people ought to think about the plight of young women who are NOT living in a safe home with their parents, but on their own, in an apartment, perhaps with roommates (with or without a significant other).  How safe is their environment if they are living in a city or large suburb living in an apartment complex?  Think about it.  People who are scared will choose the person who addresses their fears over the person that gaslights them as a rational choice. 

Inflation was caused by lockdowns. Not anything Biden did. Everything else you said is a lie.

The ARP made inflation worse