How would the Hochulmander have held up this year?

[Tekken_Guy]

How would the Hochulmander have held up this year if it was a thing?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Much better. Maybe LaLota and Malliotakis still slip through.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a tricky one - if it was still in place in the competitive seats:

NY-01 would've been very close in 2022 - Zeldin won it by 6% at the top of the ticket, however Dems probably would've taken the race seriously. I'd say LaLota would eek it out and then win re-election in 2022. No change.

NY-03 - Hard to say who would've won in 2022 since Biaggi might've run and she was a terrible fit, but in the end Santos is still expelled and ultimately Suozzi would've likely won the special and the 2024 general. No change.

NY-04 - This seat was actually redder on the Hochulmander, so D'Esposito would've won in 2022 and I think eeked out an upset this cycle - R gain.

NY-06 - Redder on the Hochulmander and Trump might've carried it Presidentially, but ultimately Meng would be just fine given her insane overperformance. No change.

NY-11 - Like NY-01, this would've been on a knife's edge in 2022 and whoever won would've probably won in 2024. To split the baby I'll say Rose wins in both 2022 and 2024 - Dem gain.

NY-17 - The central Valley is confusing because who would've run where gets complicated. It would probably have been a Jones vs Lawler matchup in 2022 - Hochul eeked out a win in this seat in 2022 mainly due to her doing marginally better than Biden 2020 with some Jewish voters - I think Jones wins though because Lawler underran the top of the ticket in 2022, and Jones would've never been as bad of a candidate. Dem gain.

NY-18 - Think Maloney could've lost, but either way Dems flip this one back in 2024. No change.

NY-19 - Riley would've won in 2022 and 2024, no change.

NY-22 - Conole would've won in 2022, easily held in 2024. No change.

So this evens out to D+1 net gain, with Rs flipping NY-04, and Dems winning 2 of NY-01, NY-11, and NY-17.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is a tricky one - if it was still in place in the competitive seats:

NY-01 would've been very close in 2022 - Zeldin won it by 6% at the top of the ticket, however Dems probably would've taken the race seriously. I'd say LaLota would eek it out and then win re-election in 2022. No change.

NY-03 - Hard to say who would've won in 2022 since Biaggi might've run and she was a terrible fit, but in the end Santos is still expelled and ultimately Suozzi would've likely won the special and the 2024 general. No change.

NY-04 - This seat was actually redder on the Hochulmander, so D'Esposito would've won in 2022 and I think eeked out an upset this cycle - R gain.

NY-06 - Redder on the Hochulmander and Trump might've carried it Presidentially, but ultimately Meng would be just fine given her insane overperformance. No change.

NY-11 - Like NY-01, this would've been on a knife's edge in 2022 and whoever won would've probably won in 2024. To split the baby I'll say Rose wins in both 2022 and 2024 - Dem gain.

NY-17 - The central Valley is confusing because who would've run where gets complicated. It would probably have been a Jones vs Lawler matchup in 2022 - Hochul eeked out a win in this seat in 2022 mainly due to her doing marginally better than Biden 2020 with some Jewish voters - I think Jones wins though because Lawler underran the top of the ticket in 2022, and Jones would've never been as bad of a candidate. Dem gain.

NY-18 - Think Maloney could've lost, but either way Dems flip this one back in 2024. No change.

NY-19 - Riley would've won in 2022 and 2024, no change.

NY-22 - Conole would've won in 2022, easily held in 2024. No change.

So this evens out to D+1 net gain, with Rs flipping NY-04, and Dems winning 2 of NY-01, NY-11, and NY-17.

This, except I think Malliotakis would have won. Rs won the house vote by about 1-2 points in the district and Trump won it by 5 this year.