Was there a single country that flipped from Republican in 2020 to Harris in 2024?
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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  Was there a single country that flipped from Republican in 2020 to Harris in 2024?
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Author Topic: Was there a single country that flipped from Republican in 2020 to Harris in 2024?  (Read 380 times)
Mr. Ukucasha
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« on: November 29, 2024, 08:35:46 PM »

Can't seem to find a definitive answer to this. If it's true, is this the first time this has ever happened?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2024, 08:36:30 PM »

Can't seem to find a definitive answer to this. If it's true, is this the first time this has ever happened?

There was not any county that flipped to Harris.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2024, 08:44:49 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2024, 09:56:18 PM by Roll Roons »

There wasn’t, but a couple (Grand, CO and Pacific, WA) were close.

The last time this happened was 1932, of all years.
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E-Dawg
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« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2024, 08:51:53 PM »

Nope. Refer to

Trump 2016 / Trump 2020 / Trump 2024:
2,559 Counties (the 2,574 Trump 2020 counties minus the 15 Clinton/Trump Counties)

Clinton 2016 / Biden 2020 / Harris 2024:
424 Counties (the 490 Clinton counties minus the 15 Clinton/Trump/Trump & 51 Clinton/Biden/Trump counties)

Clinton 2016 / Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
51 Counties (the 84 Biden/Trump counties minus the 33 Trump/Biden/Trump counties)

Trump 2016 / Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
33 Counties

Trump 2016 / Biden 2020 / Harris 2024:
30 Counties

Clinton 2016 / Trump 2020 / Trump 2024:
15 Counties

Clinton 2016 / Trump 2020 / Harris 2024:
None

Trump 2016 / Trump 2020 / Harris 2024:
None

US Election Atlas's Numbers:
2016: 2,622 Trump & 490 Clinton
2020: 2,574 Trump & 538 Biden

My calculation for 2024 using above numbers:
2024: 2,658 Trump & 454 Harris

Sources for above are US Election Atlas & these below 2 posts, please correct anything that is wrong, because something likely is wrong! I counted Lake County & Imperial County CA for Harris since she's currently leading, but it's very possible Trump wins one or both of those counties in the end.
I think this is the full list, apologies if I've missed anything!

Trump Flips
-Kennebec, ME
-Carrol, NH
-Rockingham, NH
-Sullivan, NH
-Orleans, VT
-Clinton, NY
-Essex, NY
-Rockland, NY
-Nassau, NY
-Passaic, NJ
-Morris, NJ
-Atlantic, NJ
-Gloucester, NJ
-Cumberland, NJ
-Bucks, PA
-Northampton, PA
-Monroe, PA
-Erie, PA
-Kent, MD
-Talbot, MD
-Prince Edward, VA
-Lynchburg, VA
-Surry, VA
-Pasquotank, NC
-Nash, NC
-Anson, NC
-Jasper, SC
-Jefferson, GA
-Washington, GA
-Baldwin, GA
-Duval, FL
-Seminole, FL
-Osceola, FL
-Hillsborough, FL
-Pinellas, FL
-Miami-Dade, FL
-Marengo, AL
-Marshall, MS
-Jasper, MS
-Pike, MS
-Copiah, MS
-Yazoo, MS
-Warren, MS
-Issaquena, MS
-Tensas, LA
-Iberville, LA
-St. James, LA
-Cameron, TX
-Willacy, TX
-Hildago, TX
-Starr, TX
-Duval, TX
-Webb, TX
-Maverick, TX
-Culberson, TX
-Williamson, TX
-Tarrant, TX
-Desha, AR
-Tippecanoe, IN
-Saginaw, MI
-Muskegon, MI
-Sauk, WI
-Carlton, MN
-Nicolett, MN
-Blue Earth, MN
-Winona, MN
-Scott, IA
-Ziebach, SD
-Big Horn, MT
-Blaine, MT
-Albany, WY
-Pueblo, CO
-Socorro, NM
-Maricopa, AZ
-Latah, ID
-Marion, OR
-Riverside, CA
-San Bernadino, CA
-Inyo, CA
-Fresno, CA
-Merced, CA
-Stanislaus, CA
-San Joaquin, CA
-Butte, CA

In Doubt Flip
-Lake, CA (Harris lead of 0.5% with only 32% in, who knows)

Trump '16 - Harris '24 Counties
-Hillsborough, NH
-Kent, RI
-Rensselaer, NY
-Saratoga, NY
-Broome, NY
-Stafford, VA
-James City, VA
-Chesterfield, VA
-Virginia Beach, VA
-Chesapeake, VA
-New Hanover, NC
-Hays, TX
-Montgomery, OH
-McLean, IL
-Kendall, IL
-Kent, MI
-Leelanau, MI
-Door, WI
-Clay, MN
-Johnson, KS
-Shawnee, KS
-Riley, KS
-Garfield, CO
-Grand, UT
-Teton, ID
-Clallam, WA
-Deschutes, OR
Note: They forgot Kent DE & Chaffee CO

The ones that Trump flipped this year that were Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 counties: Kennebec ME, Carroll, Rockingham and Sullivan NH, Essex and Broome NY, Morris and Gloucester NJ, Northampton and Erie PA, Kent and Talbot MD, Lynchburg VA, Nash NC, Duval, Seminole, and Pinellas FL, Warren MS, Williamson and Tarrant TX, Tippecanoe IN, Saginaw MI, Sauk WI, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona MN, Ziebach SD, Blaine MT, Albany WY, Pueblo CO, Maricopa AZ, Marion OR, Inyo and Butte CA. The rest were Hillary-Biden counties and a lot of those flipped.
Correction: Broome NY was NOT flipped by Trump, updated numbers to reflect that


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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2024, 12:04:45 AM »

Nope. Refer to

Trump 2016 / Trump 2020 / Trump 2024:
2,559 Counties (the 2,574 Trump 2020 counties minus the 15 Clinton/Trump Counties)

Clinton 2016 / Biden 2020 / Harris 2024:
424 Counties (the 490 Clinton counties minus the 15 Clinton/Trump/Trump & 51 Clinton/Biden/Trump counties)

Clinton 2016 / Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
51 Counties (the 84 Biden/Trump counties minus the 33 Trump/Biden/Trump counties)

Trump 2016 / Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
33 Counties

Trump 2016 / Biden 2020 / Harris 2024:
30 Counties

Clinton 2016 / Trump 2020 / Trump 2024:
15 Counties

Clinton 2016 / Trump 2020 / Harris 2024:
None

Trump 2016 / Trump 2020 / Harris 2024:
None

US Election Atlas's Numbers:
2016: 2,622 Trump & 490 Clinton
2020: 2,574 Trump & 538 Biden

My calculation for 2024 using above numbers:
2024: 2,658 Trump & 454 Harris

Sources for above are US Election Atlas & these below 2 posts, please correct anything that is wrong, because something likely is wrong! I counted Lake County & Imperial County CA for Harris since she's currently leading, but it's very possible Trump wins one or both of those counties in the end.
I think this is the full list, apologies if I've missed anything!

Trump Flips
-Kennebec, ME
-Carrol, NH
-Rockingham, NH
-Sullivan, NH
-Orleans, VT
-Clinton, NY
-Essex, NY
-Rockland, NY
-Nassau, NY
-Passaic, NJ
-Morris, NJ
-Atlantic, NJ
-Gloucester, NJ
-Cumberland, NJ
-Bucks, PA
-Northampton, PA
-Monroe, PA
-Erie, PA
-Kent, MD
-Talbot, MD
-Prince Edward, VA
-Lynchburg, VA
-Surry, VA
-Pasquotank, NC
-Nash, NC
-Anson, NC
-Jasper, SC
-Jefferson, GA
-Washington, GA
-Baldwin, GA
-Duval, FL
-Seminole, FL
-Osceola, FL
-Hillsborough, FL
-Pinellas, FL
-Miami-Dade, FL
-Marengo, AL
-Marshall, MS
-Jasper, MS
-Pike, MS
-Copiah, MS
-Yazoo, MS
-Warren, MS
-Issaquena, MS
-Tensas, LA
-Iberville, LA
-St. James, LA
-Cameron, TX
-Willacy, TX
-Hildago, TX
-Starr, TX
-Duval, TX
-Webb, TX
-Maverick, TX
-Culberson, TX
-Williamson, TX
-Tarrant, TX
-Desha, AR
-Tippecanoe, IN
-Saginaw, MI
-Muskegon, MI
-Sauk, WI
-Carlton, MN
-Nicolett, MN
-Blue Earth, MN
-Winona, MN
-Scott, IA
-Ziebach, SD
-Big Horn, MT
-Blaine, MT
-Albany, WY
-Pueblo, CO
-Socorro, NM
-Maricopa, AZ
-Latah, ID
-Marion, OR
-Riverside, CA
-San Bernadino, CA
-Inyo, CA
-Fresno, CA
-Merced, CA
-Stanislaus, CA
-San Joaquin, CA
-Butte, CA

In Doubt Flip
-Lake, CA (Harris lead of 0.5% with only 32% in, who knows)

Trump '16 - Harris '24 Counties
-Hillsborough, NH
-Kent, RI
-Rensselaer, NY
-Saratoga, NY
-Broome, NY
-Stafford, VA
-James City, VA
-Chesterfield, VA
-Virginia Beach, VA
-Chesapeake, VA
-New Hanover, NC
-Hays, TX
-Montgomery, OH
-McLean, IL
-Kendall, IL
-Kent, MI
-Leelanau, MI
-Door, WI
-Clay, MN
-Johnson, KS
-Shawnee, KS
-Riley, KS
-Garfield, CO
-Grand, UT
-Teton, ID
-Clallam, WA
-Deschutes, OR
Note: They forgot Kent DE & Chaffee CO

The ones that Trump flipped this year that were Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 counties: Kennebec ME, Carroll, Rockingham and Sullivan NH, Essex and Broome NY, Morris and Gloucester NJ, Northampton and Erie PA, Kent and Talbot MD, Lynchburg VA, Nash NC, Duval, Seminole, and Pinellas FL, Warren MS, Williamson and Tarrant TX, Tippecanoe IN, Saginaw MI, Sauk WI, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona MN, Ziebach SD, Blaine MT, Albany WY, Pueblo CO, Maricopa AZ, Marion OR, Inyo and Butte CA. The rest were Hillary-Biden counties and a lot of those flipped.
Correction: Broome NY was NOT flipped by Trump, updated numbers to reflect that



Oktibbeha, MS was also a late flip that should be added to this list.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2024, 12:33:28 AM »

Grand CO was the closest Trump 2020 county in the country and the only one that was under a point.
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