When will Arizona next elect a Republican senator?

[Tekken_Guy]

When will Arizona next elect a Republican senator?

[here2view]

If Vance wins, 2028 (Kelly.) If he loses, 2030 (Gallego.)

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

I’m super excited to not have an Arizona senate election for the first cycle since 2014.

I think Kelly and Gallego will both be strong and favored to hold on but the odds that at least one of them lose is still fairly high.

[Steve from Lambeth]

2058.

[MargieCat]

They seem to be in a strong position to hold on.

I think Kelly should be able to overperform unless he becomes like Bob Casey or Bill Nelson and gets complacent.

Gallego also seems to be a big overperformer.

The AZ GOP needs to start nominating normal Republicans like Juan Ciscomani, Kimberly Yee, Doug Ducey, KTR, etc to have a decent shot at winning. No more Blake Masters, Kari Lake, Mark Finchem, type candidates for statewide positions. Safe-red congressional district, no problem. But for statewide, they need to nominate normies.

[AZDem]

If Vance wins, 2028 (Kelly.) If he loses, 2030 (Gallego.)

No.

Do you know anyting about AZ?  The environment would need to be insane for Kelly to lose in '28, especially with a weak sauce candidate like Vance. Unless the AZ GOP finds a non-insane candidate, Gallego is probably safe in '30 as well unless he pulls a Sinema, but I don't see that happening.

Crane and Schweikert are toast in '26 and I see at least the state House or Senate flipping. We're a slower version of the CO shift but it's happening. The Dems have a much deeper bench than the GOP. At the state level, they are collection of kooks and crazies.

[Agafin]

If Vance wins, 2028 (Kelly.) If he loses, 2030 (Gallego.)

No.

Do you know anyting about AZ?  The environment would need to be insane for Kelly to lose in '28, especially with a weak sauce candidate like Vance. Unless the AZ GOP finds a non-insane candidate, Gallego is probably safe in '30 as well unless he pulls a Sinema, but I don't see that happening.

Crane and Schweikert are toast in '26 and I see at least the state House or Senate flipping. We're a slower version of the CO shift but it's happening. The Dems have a much deeper bench than the GOP. At the state level, they are collection of kooks and crazies.

No, a state which voted for Trump by 5.5 points is not a slower version of Colorado lmao.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Probably a decade or somewhat more. The two incumbents are going to be very strong, and with the AZGOP probably putting up the same garbage candidates, they shouldn't have a hard time.

[AZDem]

If Vance wins, 2028 (Kelly.) If he loses, 2030 (Gallego.)

No.

Do you know anyting about AZ?  The environment would need to be insane for Kelly to lose in '28, especially with a weak sauce candidate like Vance. Unless the AZ GOP finds a non-insane candidate, Gallego is probably safe in '30 as well unless he pulls a Sinema, but I don't see that happening.

Crane and Schweikert are toast in '26 and I see at least the state House or Senate flipping. We're a slower version of the CO shift but it's happening. The Dems have a much deeper bench than the GOP. At the state level, they are collection of kooks and crazies.

No, a state which voted for Trump by 5.5 points is not a slower version of Colorado lmao.

In 2004, GWB won CO by 4.5 pts and then Obama won it by 9 in 2008.

While AZ won't swing that hard as quickly, there's no denying that AZ is slowly trending Dem. 2024 was only an aberration at the Presidential level. Without Trump on the ballot, there's no guarantee the next GOP candidate will carry the state.

Do you live here? I've lived here for 20 years and have seen the changes. It's slow but it's coming.

[Zedonathin2020]

Sometime in the 2030s during the 2028 elected Democrat's term in office

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Vance wins, 2028 (Kelly.) If he loses, 2030 (Gallego.)

No.

Do you know anyting about AZ?  The environment would need to be insane for Kelly to lose in '28, especially with a weak sauce candidate like Vance. Unless the AZ GOP finds a non-insane candidate, Gallego is probably safe in '30 as well unless he pulls a Sinema, but I don't see that happening.

Crane and Schweikert are toast in '26 and I see at least the state House or Senate flipping. We're a slower version of the CO shift but it's happening. The Dems have a much deeper bench than the GOP. At the state level, they are collection of kooks and crazies.

No, a state which voted for Trump by 5.5 points is not a slower version of Colorado lmao.

In 2004, GWB won CO by 4.5 pts and then Obama won it by 9 in 2008.

While AZ won't swing that hard as quickly, there's no denying that AZ is slowly trending Dem. 2024 was only an aberration at the Presidential level. Without Trump on the ballot, there's no guarantee the next GOP candidate will carry the state.

Do you live here? I've lived here for 20 years and have seen the changes. It's slow but it's coming.

If a state goes R+3.5, D+0.3, R+5.5, then the 2020 result is the abberation, not the two Trump wins.   The consensus for 8 years was that Trump was a uniquely poor fit for the state (he still is), and now all of a sudden people are viewing him as an electoral juggernaut in AZ when he really isn't. The national Dem brand was just hated that much in a state that always had GOP DNA.

[Zenobiyl]

They seem to be in a strong position to hold on.

I think Kelly should be able to overperform unless he becomes like Bob Casey or Bill Nelson and gets complacent.

Gallego also seems to be a big overperformer.

The AZ GOP needs to start nominating normal Republicans like Juan Ciscomani, Kimberly Yee, Doug Ducey, KTR, etc to have a decent shot at winning. No more Blake Masters, Kari Lake, Mark Finchem, type candidates for statewide positions. Safe-red congressional district, no problem. But for statewide, they need to nominate normies.

I’ll want to see how Gallego does against an R not named ‘Kari Lake’ before thinking he’s an overperformer.

[UncleSam]

If Vance wins, 2028 (Kelly.) If he loses, 2030 (Gallego.)

No.

Do you know anyting about AZ?  The environment would need to be insane for Kelly to lose in '28, especially with a weak sauce candidate like Vance. Unless the AZ GOP finds a non-insane candidate, Gallego is probably safe in '30 as well unless he pulls a Sinema, but I don't see that happening.

Crane and Schweikert are toast in '26 and I see at least the state House or Senate flipping. We're a slower version of the CO shift but it's happening. The Dems have a much deeper bench than the GOP. At the state level, they are collection of kooks and crazies.

Very hot take considering Trump just won Arizona by 5.5 and latinos swung like 15 points right nationally.

If FL + TX becomes the power center of the GOP (as is now obvious it will be), AZ is prime territory for the GOP to make gains.

Dems have gotten quite lucky with facing terrible GOP candidates in senate races in AZ in recent years, but the state as a whole hasn't voted within four points of the NPV since FDR (unless it ends up at like R+3.9 this year or something). Yes it trended into the realm of competitiveness from 2012 - 2022 due to the Trump effect / McCain party infighting, but if the state trends backwards as the result of a major demographic shift nationwide then I see no reason to think it will stop there.

There's a moderate chance that AZ-2020 PRES will end up looking very similar to IN-2008 PRES. A traditionally conservative state trended just into the realm of competitiveness, was won by a tiny margin in a large NPV win by the other party, then trended back to the party it had always supported. Again this assumes that trends among Latino voters hold consistent, which may or may not be the case.

Anyway to answer the question, I think Kelly hangs on unless Rs are winning nationally in 2028 (which I think they won't). 2030 Gallego will be toast in a Dem midterm, and will be endangered even in a GOP one (but would probably hold on).

[Pericles]

If Arizona trends R, then Kelly could have a Sherrod Brown situation. Gallego's seat is more vulnerable though, especially because it could be up in a Democratic midterm and it could even be open then if Gallego gets promoted in 2028.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

If Vance wins, 2028 (Kelly.) If he loses, 2030 (Gallego.)

No.

Do you know anyting about AZ?  The environment would need to be insane for Kelly to lose in '28, especially with a weak sauce candidate like Vance. Unless the AZ GOP finds a non-insane candidate, Gallego is probably safe in '30 as well unless he pulls a Sinema, but I don't see that happening.

Crane and Schweikert are toast in '26 and I see at least the state House or Senate flipping. We're a slower version of the CO shift but it's happening. The Dems have a much deeper bench than the GOP. At the state level, they are collection of kooks and crazies.

No, a state which voted for Trump by 5.5 points is not a slower version of Colorado lmao.

In 2004, GWB won CO by 4.5 pts and then Obama won it by 9 in 2008.

While AZ won't swing that hard as quickly, there's no denying that AZ is slowly trending Dem. 2024 was only an aberration at the Presidential level. Without Trump on the ballot, there's no guarantee the next GOP candidate will carry the state.

Do you live here? I've lived here for 20 years and have seen the changes. It's slow but it's coming.

Thank you. I cannot believe someone had the gumption to say AZ 2020 is IN 2008. Like LMAO.

The anomalous election result is 2024. 2018 was bad for Rs, 2020, 2022. It’s certainly possible that Hobbs is re-elected and Schweikert/Ciscomani fall in 2026.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Vance wins, 2028 (Kelly.) If he loses, 2030 (Gallego.)

No.

Do you know anyting about AZ?  The environment would need to be insane for Kelly to lose in '28, especially with a weak sauce candidate like Vance. Unless the AZ GOP finds a non-insane candidate, Gallego is probably safe in '30 as well unless he pulls a Sinema, but I don't see that happening.

Crane and Schweikert are toast in '26 and I see at least the state House or Senate flipping. We're a slower version of the CO shift but it's happening. The Dems have a much deeper bench than the GOP. At the state level, they are collection of kooks and crazies.

No, a state which voted for Trump by 5.5 points is not a slower version of Colorado lmao.

In 2004, GWB won CO by 4.5 pts and then Obama won it by 9 in 2008.

While AZ won't swing that hard as quickly, there's no denying that AZ is slowly trending Dem. 2024 was only an aberration at the Presidential level. Without Trump on the ballot, there's no guarantee the next GOP candidate will carry the state.

Do you live here? I've lived here for 20 years and have seen the changes. It's slow but it's coming.

Thank you. I cannot believe someone had the gumption to say AZ 2020 is IN 2008. Like LMAO.

The anomalous election result is 2024. 2018 was bad for Rs, 2020, 2022. It’s certainly possible that Hobbs is re-elected and Schweikert/Ciscomani fall in 2026.

Yeah it’s very possible there was a one-time snapback with white suburban voters due to dissatisfaction with Biden and the border, or that this was a high-water mark for the GOP with Hispanics.

[MargieCat]

AZ is not Indiana 2008.

Democrats hold two senate seats, the governorship, the AG, and the SoS.

It did not even trend rightwards.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a bit besides the topic of the thread, but I think it's really funny that the 2018, 2020, and 2024 Senate races were all D+2.4

My guess is not anytime soon unless Arizona truly is going the way of Florida when it comes to cultural self-sorting. Both Kelly and Gallego are strong incumbents, and both are relatively young for Senators and could easily run for a couple more terms. I also don't see either as the type to suddenly become lazy and take a race for granted (i.e. Nelson, Casey).

An R-wave nationally could knock them out, but it seems true R-waves may be more difficult due to increased polarization and Dems having a higher propensity base.

Of course this is a really hard question to answer because who knows what things will look like in 5 or 10 years. Imagine telling someone in 2016 that Dems would hold both Senate seats in GA and AZ while FL now regularly votes for Rs by double-digits.

[Existing in the context]

AZ is not Indiana 2008.

Democrats hold two senate seats, the governorship, the AG, and the SoS.

It did not even trend rightwards.

Republicans are on the sugar high Democrats where on after 2008. Every state and every demographic group is trending toward them. Having a lock on the presidency for years. Just like we did after Obama.

[Samof94]

AZ is not Indiana 2008.

Democrats hold two senate seats, the governorship, the AG, and the SoS.

It did not even trend rightwards.

Republicans are on the sugar high Democrats where on after 2008. Every state and every demographic group is trending toward them. Having a lock on the presidency for years. Just like we did after Obama.

That makes them a poor fit for midterms. Also, Trump is term-locked.

[CentristRepublican]

They seem to be in a strong position to hold on.

I think Kelly should be able to overperform unless he becomes like Bob Casey or Bill Nelson and gets complacent.

Gallego also seems to be a big overperformer.

The AZ GOP needs to start nominating normal Republicans like Juan Ciscomani, Kimberly Yee, Doug Ducey, KTR, etc to have a decent shot at winning. No more Blake Masters, Kari Lake, Mark Finchem, type candidates for statewide positions. Safe-red congressional district, no problem. But for statewide, they need to nominate normies.

Agreed in broad strokes, though Ducey is basically irrelevant atp and Ciscomani is sorta overrated imo.

Also I like what I've seen from Gallego so far but tbf he's had 1 statewide race against an absolute train wreck opponent. Granted, it was still an impressive result given the topline, but he's not battle-tested in the way that Kelly (who's won 2x) is. Too early to label Gallego a (consistent) overperformer.

[Mr. Smith]

If Vance wins, 2028 (Kelly.) If he loses, 2030 (Gallego.)

No.

Do you know anyting about AZ?  The environment would need to be insane for Kelly to lose in '28, especially with a weak sauce candidate like Vance. Unless the AZ GOP finds a non-insane candidate, Gallego is probably safe in '30 as well unless he pulls a Sinema, but I don't see that happening.

Crane and Schweikert are toast in '26 and I see at least the state House or Senate flipping. We're a slower version of the CO shift but it's happening. The Dems have a much deeper bench than the GOP. At the state level, they are collection of kooks and crazies.

No, a state which voted for Trump by 5.5 points is not a slower version of Colorado lmao.

In 2004, GWB won CO by 4.5 pts and then Obama won it by 9 in 2008.

While AZ won't swing that hard as quickly, there's no denying that AZ is slowly trending Dem. 2024 was only an aberration at the Presidential level. Without Trump on the ballot, there's no guarantee the next GOP candidate will carry the state.

Do you live here? I've lived here for 20 years and have seen the changes. It's slow but it's coming.

If a state goes R+3.5, D+0.3, R+5.5, then the 2020 result is the abberation, not the two Trump wins.   The consensus for 8 years was that Trump was a uniquely poor fit for the state (he still is), and now all of a sudden people are viewing him as an electoral juggernaut in AZ when he really isn't. The national Dem brand was just hated that much in a state that always had GOP DNA.

Relatively speaking, this translates to R+ 5.6 (D +2.1 year), R +4.2 (D+ 4.5 year) , R +3.9 (R+1.6 year) to everything else, which definitely bodes well for the next D win.

[Samof94]

If Vance wins, 2028 (Kelly.) If he loses, 2030 (Gallego.)

No.

Do you know anyting about AZ?  The environment would need to be insane for Kelly to lose in '28, especially with a weak sauce candidate like Vance. Unless the AZ GOP finds a non-insane candidate, Gallego is probably safe in '30 as well unless he pulls a Sinema, but I don't see that happening.

Crane and Schweikert are toast in '26 and I see at least the state House or Senate flipping. We're a slower version of the CO shift but it's happening. The Dems have a much deeper bench than the GOP. At the state level, they are collection of kooks and crazies.

No, a state which voted for Trump by 5.5 points is not a slower version of Colorado lmao.

In 2004, GWB won CO by 4.5 pts and then Obama won it by 9 in 2008.

While AZ won't swing that hard as quickly, there's no denying that AZ is slowly trending Dem. 2024 was only an aberration at the Presidential level. Without Trump on the ballot, there's no guarantee the next GOP candidate will carry the state.

Do you live here? I've lived here for 20 years and have seen the changes. It's slow but it's coming.

If a state goes R+3.5, D+0.3, R+5.5, then the 2020 result is the abberation, not the two Trump wins.   The consensus for 8 years was that Trump was a uniquely poor fit for the state (he still is), and now all of a sudden people are viewing him as an electoral juggernaut in AZ when he really isn't. The national Dem brand was just hated that much in a state that always had GOP DNA.

Relatively speaking, this translates to R+ 5.6 (D +2.1 year), R +4.2 (D+ 4.5 year) , R +3.9 (R+1.6 year) to everything else, which definitely bodes well for the next D win.

Phoenix is less red than it once was