Would Lauren Boebert have won re-election in CO-03?

[Tekken_Guy]

Had Lauren Boebert stayed in CO-03, would she have won re-election?

On one hand, she underperformed Trump by a large margin, around 7 points. On the other hand, 7 points is less than the margin Trump won CO-03 by which is around 9 points. Yet on the other hand Adam Frisch was a far more formidable candidate than Trisha Calvarese.

[america is tariffied]

Probably not.

She also underperformed enough in CO-4 that she could feasibly lose it if Douglas County keeps trending D and 2026 looks anything 2018 nationally. Douglas County swung 0.2 points Democratic at the presidential level compared to 2020.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

No, she would not have. She barely won by 10 points in the much redder CO-04. She won by the skin of her teeth in CO-03 in 2022, Frisch was a known quantity at this point after campaigning straight for 4 years in the district, and Boebert has had even more high profile controversies since 2022 (chief among them the Beetlejuice theater incident).

Frisch only lost his race by 3 or 4%, it’s not hard to see him making up that gap with Boebert as the Republican nominee.

[Spectator]

It’s unknowable how much of her CO-04 underperformance was due to the carpet-bagging.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

It’s unknowable how much of her CO-04 underperformance was due to the carpet-bagging.

Could be, maybe specifically because of the bad blood between her and Ken Buck. But at this point I think the GOP is a party of national figures and personalities so much that carpetbagging doesn't matter that much. There are several things more objectionable about Boebert's conduct than her switching districts!

[CentristRepublican]

It’s unknowable how much of her CO-04 underperformance was due to the carpet-bagging.

Could be, maybe specifically because of the bad blood between her and Ken Buck. But at this point I think the GOP is a party of national figures and personalities so much that carpetbagging doesn't matter that much. There are several things more objectionable about Boebert's conduct than her switching districts!

Yeah I feel like carpetbagging probably hurt her in the primary but was mostly a non-issue in the GE.

[Tekken_Guy]

It’s unknowable how much of her CO-04 underperformance was due to the carpet-bagging.

Could be, maybe specifically because of the bad blood between her and Ken Buck. But at this point I think the GOP is a party of national figures and personalities so much that carpetbagging doesn't matter that much. There are several things more objectionable about Boebert's conduct than her switching districts!

Yeah I feel like carpetbagging probably hurt her in the primary but was mostly a non-issue in the GE.

Yeah she failed to get a majority in the primary. The 2026 primary could be competitive if she only faces one primary foe.

[CentristRepublican]

It’s unknowable how much of her CO-04 underperformance was due to the carpet-bagging.

Could be, maybe specifically because of the bad blood between her and Ken Buck. But at this point I think the GOP is a party of national figures and personalities so much that carpetbagging doesn't matter that much. There are several things more objectionable about Boebert's conduct than her switching districts!

Yeah I feel like carpetbagging probably hurt her in the primary but was mostly a non-issue in the GE.

Yeah she failed to get a majority in the primary. The 2026 primary could be competitive if she only faces one primary foe.

I doubt it; she'll be more entrenched by then.

Truly a shame that Buck resigned, Lopez retired, and she got away with the carpetbagging. Had either of those two things not have happened, she'd either have stayed put in CO-03 or lost the primary to incumbent Buck/Lopez in CO-04. And in CO-03 she'd go down pretty soon, if not 2024 then for sure in 2026.

[Tekken_Guy]

It’s unknowable how much of her CO-04 underperformance was due to the carpet-bagging.

Could be, maybe specifically because of the bad blood between her and Ken Buck. But at this point I think the GOP is a party of national figures and personalities so much that carpetbagging doesn't matter that much. There are several things more objectionable about Boebert's conduct than her switching districts!

Yeah I feel like carpetbagging probably hurt her in the primary but was mostly a non-issue in the GE.

Yeah she failed to get a majority in the primary. The 2026 primary could be competitive if she only faces one primary foe.

I doubt it; she'll be more entrenched by then.

Truly a shame that Buck resigned, Lopez retired, and she got away with the carpetbagging. Had either of those two things not have happened, she'd either have stayed put in CO-03 or lost the primary to incumbent Buck/Lopez in CO-04. And in CO-03 she'd go down pretty soon, if not 2024 then for sure in 2026.

She won’t get entrenched. She has pretty much universal name recognition for four years at this point and her ceiling of support in the primary is pretty low. I can’t imagine that many who voted against her in the 2024 primary switching their support to her in 2026.

And as we’ve seen MAGA congresspeople aren’t impervious to primary challenges, as we’ve seen with the likes of Steve King, Madison Cawthorn, and Bob Good.

(Also Lopez only intended to run as a placeholder candidate, he could have been stopped in the nominating convention at the special.)

[New World Man]

I think she will have a really good chance of losing a primary.

[Aurelius2]

Probably not, but Western CO (like most western mountain areas that aren't Mormon) is a deeply crankish area, and the Crank Realignment might possibly have made it a bit closer than it would've been otherwise.